Exit Poll 2019

[CatholicLeft]

Dec 12, 2019 20:52:20 GMT @kipper1 said:

Yay...it'll be hilarious.

[jollyroger93]

Dec 12, 2019 20:52:20 GMT @kipper1 said:

Should be interesting, they predicted Gordon a Lib dem gain in 2017......

[lancastrian]

Not sure this is a good idea. A lot will be made of the individual seat predictions, but do they really have the data to do it accurately, especially in certain high profile seats where UNS is not likely to apply.

[Tony Otim]

Dec 12, 2019 21:04:28 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Dec 12, 2019 20:52:20 GMT @kipper1 said:

Should be interesting, they predicted Gordon a Lib dem gain in 2017......

And Norwich South as a Green gain in 2015

[greenchristian]

There will be plenty of seats where they don't have a sample as well.

I'm told that there's a exit poll station somewhere in Bristol West. Be interesting to see what that one picks up.

[CatholicLeft]

Don't vuy it. I am guessing close figures. I would guess Labour over 220.

[mboy]

Holy shit. I suspect tactical voting may close the figures a bit, but even so.,..

[Sibboleth]

Do we know what the figures look like in terms of percentages?

[CatholicLeft]

I knew something seismic was happening, but not this. The SNP gaining every seat except Edinburgh South/Orkney & Shetland.Not a chance...12 Tories lost in Scotland?

[mboy]

Tories will surely win some full urban city seats in England on those figures, for first time since 1987.

[bjornhattan]

Dec 12, 2019 22:14:41 GMT Sibboleth said:

Do we know what the figures look like in terms of percentages?

I've seen it estimated at LAB 43% CON 29%, but I don't think any formal figures are given.

[Deleted]

Con 46 Lab 32

[johng]

Huge 14 point lead for the Tories. It also shows swings of 9-11 points in many seats in Wales, the midlands and north.

[tonygreaves]

This country has gone completely mad. It is in the throes of a collective mental breakdown. I just wish I was young enough to go live somewhere else. Stupid, stupid people voting for their own destitution.

[Deleted]

Dec 12, 2019 23:03:16 GMT tonygreaves said:

This country has gone completely mad. It is in the throes of a collective mental breakdown. I just wish I was young enough to go live somewhere else. Stupid, stupid people voting for their own destitution.

Mind if we quote Your Lordship on that?

[Jack]

Dec 12, 2019 23:03:16 GMT tonygreaves said:

This country has gone completely mad. It is in the throes of a collective mental breakdown. I just wish I was young enough to go live somewhere else. Stupid, stupid people voting for their own destitution.

Let the meltdowns begin.

[The Bishop]

In actual fact, the exit poll slightly overstated the Tory victory in both seat and vote terms (the latter was actually 45-33 rather than 46-32)

And it is cold comfort for us but Labour got a dozen more MPs than predicted. Had that been the case with the 2017 version, things might just have turned out differently.

(Labour might well have been able to form an at least short-term minority government then)

[curiousliberal]

Dec 13, 2019 12:06:39 GMT The Bishop said:

In actual fact, the exit poll slightly overstated the Tory victory in both seat and vote terms (the latter was actually 45-33 rather than 46-32)

And it is cold comfort for us but Labour got a dozen more MPs than predicted. Had that been the case with the 2017 version, things might just have turned out differently.

(Labour might well have been able to form an at least short-term minority government then)

Still within the 3% margin of error, as ~64% of the BBC/ITN exit polls have been. The team should be patting themselves on the back.

[minionofmidas]

Dec 14, 2019 14:30:18 GMT curiousliberal said:

Dec 13, 2019 12:06:39 GMT The Bishop said:

In actual fact, the exit poll slightly overstated the Tory victory in both seat and vote terms (the latter was actually 45-33 rather than 46-32)

And it is cold comfort for us but Labour got a dozen more MPs than predicted. Had that been the case with the 2017 version, things might just have turned out differently.

(Labour might well have been able to form an at least short-term minority government then)

Still within the 3% margin of error, as ~64% of the BBC/ITN exit polls have been. The team should be patting themselves on the back.

Absolutely. Even looking at the seat predictions, there are a number of screwups but most of them are explainable.

Their model evidently couldn't take account of huge personal votes unwinding in Ynys Môn and Norfolk North, both of which were blithely predicted to be 90%+ certain to be holds.

They didn't do too greatly in Scotland, not only overestimating the SNP but also underestimating the Scottish LDs and particularly overestimating the SNP in the North, leading to Edinburgh W, NE Fife, Moray, and Caithness & Sutherland all at 99% or even 100% (Caithness) certain to go SNP and E Aberdeenshire not far behind (and Orkney & Shetland at 81%).

They also overestimated the remain vote in Central London (leading to 97% Lab hold Kensington, and Westminster & City too close to call) and underestimating it in other Southern towns (leading to 88% Con gain Canterbury, as well as numerous "too close" calls that ended up not close.

They mostly modelled the Labour catastrophe across the Northern English ripped out heartland remarkably well - there were no Tory gains here that they were blindsided by even though there were several that they thought less than 50% likely and a few nearmisses they viewed as safe Labour. They did however completely fail to predict the Labour holds in Halifax (Con gain in the 90s, forget the number), Alyn & Deeside (Con gain 97) and Weaver Vale (Con gain 99), making these three arguably the biggest surprises of the night.

[pragmaticidealist]

Each of the past four exit polls have overestimated the Lib Dems by precisely two seats.

57 in 2010 (59 in the exit poll)
8 in 2015 (10 in the exit poll)
12 in 2017 (14 in the exit poll)
11 in 2019 (13 in the exit poll)