Historic Notional Results

[Harrier]

Does anyone have the notional results by constituency for the 2017 general election on the 1992 boundaries?

[AdminSTB]

Dec 6, 2019 20:38:50 GMT Harrier said:

Does anyone have the notional results by constituency for the 2017 general election on the 1992 boundaries?

I can't answer that myself, but I observe your current status. Do you want me to colour in your username?

[Harry Hayfield]

Dec 6, 2019 20:38:50 GMT Harrier said:

Does anyone have the notional results by constituency for the 2017 general election on the 1992 boundaries?

Are you sure you have that the right way around? Do you mean the 1992 election on the 2017 boundaries (i.e from 1992 to 1997 and then from 1997 to 2010)?

[Harrier]

Hi. Yes please swanarcadian
Harry Hayfield - i was hoping i.e. if the 2017 general election was fought on the 1983-1997 boundaries, which party would have won each seat, ideally with vote breakdowns

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 7, 2019 17:55:44 GMT Harrier said:

Hi. Yes please swanarcadian
Harry Hayfield - i was hoping i.e. if the 2017 general election was fought on the 1983-1997 boundaries, which party would have won each seat, ideally with vote breakdowns

I don't think it's been done by anyone though I would be able to do that (have done it) for some areas where I've calculated ward results for 2017. You could use the Electoral calculus figures to work them out but they're not very reliable. Other problem is all areas have had ward boundary changes since then so many wards don't fit precisely into a single constituency. So you wouldn't get anything very precise

[Harrier]

That’s a shame. Thank you Pete Whitehead for the response. I see if I could try and get a near estimate from Electoral Calculus

[Harry Hayfield]

Dec 7, 2019 17:55:44 GMT Harrier said:

Hi. Yes please swanarcadian
Harry Hayfield - i was hoping i.e. if the 2017 general election was fought on the 1983-1997 boundaries, which party would have won each seat, ideally with vote breakdowns

This is what I mean. Since the 1983 general election there have been two sets of boundary changes. The first set was from 1983 to 1997 and the second set was from 1997 to 2010. This means that you would take the 2017 result and reverse calculate 1997 and then reverse calculate that to 1983. If this is what you are looking for then my advice would be to contact Profs. Thrasher and Rallings and give them £1,000 (because that would take a lot of work to do)

[afleitch]

Probably the easiest way to do it is manually; use Electoral Calculus' ward estimates and approximate the current wards to the old seats.

[bjornhattan]

Dec 8, 2019 21:38:46 GMT afleitch said:

Probably the easiest way to do it is manually; use Electoral Calculus' ward estimates and approximate the current wards to the old seats.

I've just attempted to do that for Tyne and Wear. The wards match up reasonably well, with a few exceptions. I'd put the results here, but tables are infuriating to create on this forum, so I'll just give the majorities. All seats were won by Labour, with the Conservatives second. I've listed them from most marginal at the top to least marginal at the bottom, and all ranking is by percentage since constituency electorates have diverged massively since 1992.

Tynemouth: 12,029 (21.3%)
Newcastle North: 9,776 (22.7%)
Sunderland South: 11,467 (25.2%)
Houghton and Washington: 13,149 (27.9%)
Newcastle Central: 9,358 (28.6%)
Blaydon: 12,584 (29.1%)
Sunderland North: 10,665 (30.8%)
South Shields: 12,135 (35.9%)
Wallsend: 18,921 (36.1%)
Jarrow: 15,627 (38.1%)
Gateshead East: 16,007 (41.9%)
Tyne Bridge: 13,458 (41.9%)
Newcastle East: 18,204 (49.5%)

Most obvious issues: Newcastle Central would be a bit more Labour and Newcastle North a bit more Conservative (I put all of both Gosforth wards in Central when about 40% of both were in North), and Blaydon would be more Conservative and Tyne Bridge considerably more Labour (a middle class Gateshead ward was mainly in Tyne Bridge and gives it a fifth of its Tory vote). Of course I could have split the electorates had I wished to be very thorough.