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Post by middleenglander on Jan 9, 2013 12:20:37 GMT
I am happy to run a prediction if there is the demand.
There appear to be 8 by-elections during January:
* 4 on the 17th
* 2 on the 24th and
* 2 on the 31st
* 3 of the contests are in District Councils where the last contests were in 2011,
* 3 are in Metropolitan Boroughs where elections have been held in each of the last 3 years
* 1 is for a London Borough, last elections in 2010 and
* 1 in a Welsh seat where elections were held last May.
The Conservatives are defending 4 seats, all arising from the death of the former councillor, Labour defend 3 seats, 2 following a death and 1 after the election of the former councillor as an MP, whilst the Lib Dems defend 1 seat following an resignation.
The Conservatives are contesting 7 seats with no candidate in Bridgend, Brynoch. Labour are also contesting 7 seats with no candidate in Herefordshire, Ross on Wye West with the Lib Dems having 6 candidates with no one in Fenland, Hill and Wirral, Heswall. There are 7 Independent candidates contesting 5 seats, 4 each Green and UKIP, 3 TUSC candidates along with 1 each for the BNP, Plaid Cymru and SPGB. In total there are 41 candidates contesting the 8 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the morning of the by-election.
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Post by Philip Davies on Jan 9, 2013 12:24:30 GMT
Yes please...I will be entering.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2013 13:34:45 GMT
Unusual for the LDs not to have a candidate in Heswall
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Post by marksenior on Jan 9, 2013 16:33:03 GMT
Unusual for the LDs not to have a candidate in Heswall It appears they had selected David Tyrrell as a candidate but nominations were not submitted ( reason not known by me ) . |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 9, 2013 20:51:20 GMT
Yes please; plenty of interesting byelections for a competition!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2013 6:38:58 GMT
aye, I enjoy the prediction comp it is the best attribute of this board.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 10, 2013 20:03:46 GMT
I'd like the prediction competition to start again even though I probably won't be entering.
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dibs
Non-Aligned
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Post by dibs on Jan 11, 2013 21:31:44 GMT
Yes, please start comp!
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 16, 2013 20:48:30 GMT
FENLAND - Hill (Conservative died)
Samantha HOY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 56%
Dean REEVES (The Labour Party Candidate) 30
John WHITE (Independent) 14
LAMBETH - Brixton Hill (Labour resigned)
Timothy BRIGGS (Conservative Party Candidate) 8
Andrew CHILD (Green Party) 11
Elizabeth JONES (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5
Daniel LAMBERT (The Socialist Party (GB)) 2
Liz MAFFEI (Liberal Democrats) 20
Steve NALLY (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2
Martin TIEDEMANN (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 52
WIRRAL - Heswall (Conservative died)
Barbara BURTON (The Green Party) 4
Kathryn HODSON (Conservative Party) 57
Michael HOLLIDAY (Labour Party Candidate) 24
Gregory NORTH (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2
David SCOTT (UK Independence Party) 13
WIRRAL - Leasowe and Moreton East (Labour died)
Daniel CLEIN (Liberal Democrats - For A Fairer Britain) 5
Pauline DANIELS (Labour Party Candidate) 46
Mark HALLIGAN (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2
Ian LEWIS (Local Conservatives) 39
James MCGINLEY (The Green Party) 2
Susan WHITHAM (UK Independence Party) 6
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Post by marksenior on Jan 16, 2013 23:19:09 GMT
My stabs this week with rusty fork .
Fenland Con 55 Lab 25 Ind 20
Lambeth Lab 46 LD 19 Green 18 Con 7 UKIP 4 TUSC 4 SPGB 2
Heswall Con 61 Lab 20 UKIP 10 Green 7 TUSC 2
Leasowe Lab 52 Con 34 UKIP 6 Green 4 LD 3 TUSC 1
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 17, 2013 0:47:18 GMT
FENLAND Hill: C 52.8, Lab 36.0, Ind 11.2
LAMBETH Brixton Hill: Lab 53.4, L Dem 15.4, GP 11.5, C 9.0, TUSC 6.4, UKIP 2.9, SPGB 1.4 (the poor dears)
WIRRAL Heswall: C 60.5, Lab 23.6, UKIP 8.7, GP 3.6, TUSC 3.6
WIRRAL Leasowe and Moreton East: Lab 51.8, C 36.3, TUSC 4.0, GP 3.2, L Dem 2.8, UKIP 1.9
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Post by hempie on Jan 17, 2013 8:05:12 GMT
Fenland, Hill: Con 56, Lab 29, Ind 15
Lambeth, Brixton Hill: Lab 49, LD 20 Green 13, Con 7, UKIP 4, TUSC 4, Socialist 3
Wirral,Heswall: Con 64, Lab 19, UKIP 11, Green 4, TUSC 2
Wirral,Leasowe & Moreton East: Lab 47, Con 39, UKIP 5, LD 5, Green 2, TUSC 2
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 17, 2013 8:45:21 GMT
FENLAND - Con 58, Lab 24, Ind 18
LAMBETH - Lab 53, LD 16, Grn 15, Con 6, UKIP 5, TUSC 3, SP 2
WIRRAL (Heswall) - Con 62, Lab 20, UKIP 12, Grn 5, TUSC 1
WIRRAL (Leasowe) - Lab 45, Con 38, UKIP 5, LD 5, Grn 4, TUSC 3
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 17, 2013 8:58:04 GMT
Fenland, Hill: C 54.1, L 25.5, I 20.4.
Lambeth, Brixton Hill: L 54.4. LD 16.7, G 15.2, C 9.1, TUSC 2.0, UKIP 1.5, SPGB 1.1.
Wirral, Heswall: C 61.8, L 21.0, UKIP 9.8, G 5.0, TUSC 2.4.
Wirral, Leasowe & Moreton East: L 52.2, C 37.1, LD 3.6, UKIP 3.4, G 2.1, TUSC 1.6.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2013 9:30:46 GMT
FENLAND - Hill (Conservative died)
Samantha HOY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 50
Dean REEVES (The Labour Party Candidate) 30
John WHITE (Independent) 20
LAMBETH - Brixton Hill (Labour resigned)
Timothy BRIGGS (Conservative Party Candidate) 8
Andrew CHILD (Green Party) 11
Elizabeth JONES (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5
Daniel LAMBERT (The Socialist Party (GB)) 2
Liz MAFFEI (Liberal Democrats) 12
Steve NALLY (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2
Martin TIEDEMANN (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 60
WIRRAL - Heswall (Conservative died)
Barbara BURTON (The Green Party) 9
Kathryn HODSON (Conservative Party) 45
Michael HOLLIDAY (Labour Party Candidate) 24
Gregory NORTH (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2
David SCOTT (UK Independence Party) 20
WIRRAL - Leasowe and Moreton East (Labour died)
Daniel CLEIN (Liberal Democrats - For A Fairer Britain) 5
Pauline DANIELS (Labour Party Candidate) 40
Mark HALLIGAN (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2
Ian LEWIS (Local Conservatives) 25
James MCGINLEY (The Green Party) 10
Susan WHITHAM (UK Independence Party) 18
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2013 9:50:10 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2013 12:07:48 GMT
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Post by Philip Davies on Jan 17, 2013 13:42:28 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 17, 2013 20:10:50 GMT
There have been 11 entries this week, including Andrew Teale still to post, although Just Looking gets 20 additional faults for posting at 9.30 am.
Unanimity for no change, ie Conservative hold in Fenland, Hill and Wirral, Heswall and Labour hold in Lambeth, Brixton Hill and Wirral, Leasowe & Moreton East.
Fenland, Hill: average Conservative majority over Labour 26.2%, ranging from 16.8% to 45%,
Lambeth, Brixton Hill: 7 predict Lib Dems second and 4 Greens with average Labour majority 37.5%, ranging from 27% to 48%,
Wirral, Heswall: average Conservative majority over Labour 38.8%, ranging from 23% to 45%
Wirral, Leasowe & Moreton East: average Labour majority over Conservative 11.9%, ranging from 6% to 18%.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 17, 2013 20:26:55 GMT
LAMBETH, BRIXTON HILL: Lab 52 Grn 17 LD 13 C 9 UKIP 4 TUSC 3 SPGB 2
WISBECH, HILL: C 65 Lab 20 Ind 15
WIRRAL, HESWALL: C 59.9 Lab 21 UKIP 14 Grn 5 TUSC 0.1
WIRRAL, LEASOWE AND MORETON EAST: Lab 46 C 40 UKIP 6 TUSC 3 Grn 3 LD 2
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