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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 24, 2013 23:56:51 GMT
Yes but I thought he meant what happened to cause the swing
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2013 23:59:52 GMT
Yes but I thought he meant what happened to cause the swing Yes, the result maybe wasn't that big a shock, but the margin is a lot higher than expected. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 25, 2013 0:12:56 GMT
Ross is a funny old place, but maybe there's some local issue?
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 25, 2013 0:20:04 GMT
It is a bit difficult to talk about swing here in any meaningful sense. Looking at the 2011 result there was clearly a lot of split ticket voting so I think a lot of people are voting for personalities not parties.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 25, 2013 0:25:43 GMT
It is a bit difficult to talk about swing here in any meaningful sense. Looking at the 2011 result there was clearly a lot of split ticket voting so I think a lot of people are voting for personalities not parties. That was certainly my reaction. Something like 'popular local Tory replaces other popular local Tory joining popular local Lib Dem on the council'. It's very interesting as well that the Indy vote split almost exactly 50/50 for the Town council seat, showing that his standing did not disadvantge one or other of the party candidates, even as an ex-Tory. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 25, 2013 0:29:58 GMT
SEDGEMOOR Highbridge and Burnham Marine Helen GROVES (Liberal Democrats) 379 Bill HANCOCK (The Conservative Party Candidate) 288 Sally WILLIAMS (Independent) 253 Ricky HOLCOMBE (The Labour Party Candidate) 249 Purple WATKINS (Independent) 68 **NB I am guessing which Independent got which votes Very pleased with that result. Bodes well for the counties. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 25, 2013 1:25:04 GMT
Herefordshire, Ross-on-Wye West
Conservative 695 - 54.4%, up 23.6% on "average" May 2011 and up 21.8% on "top"
Independent 312 - 24.4%, down 7.8% on "average", down 4.1% on "top"
Lib Dem 270 - 21.1%, down 9.8% on "average", down 12.6% on "top"
No Its Our County, 6.1% on "average", 5.3% on "top"
Swing Lib Dem to Conservative around 17%, Independent to Conservative 13% to 16% but may be more of a personal vote
Sedgemoor, Highbridge & Burnham Marine
Lib Dem 379 - 30.6%, up 1.9% on "average" May 2011, down 1.3% on "top"
Conservative 288 - 23.3%, up 0.2% on "average", up 2.3% on "top"
Independent 1 253 - 20.5%, down 9.1% on "average", down 8.2% on "top"
Labour 249 - 20.1%, up 1.5% on "average", 1.7% on "top"
Independent 2 68 - 5.5% from nowhere
Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 0.8% on "average" but Lib Dem to Conservative 0.5% on "top" but in reality not much change.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2013 10:33:12 GMT
SEDGEMOOR Highbridge and Burnham Marine Helen GROVES (Liberal Democrats) 379 Bill HANCOCK (The Conservative Party Candidate) 288 Sally WILLIAMS (Independent) 253 Ricky HOLCOMBE (The Labour Party Candidate) 249 Purple WATKINS (Independent) 68 **NB I am guessing which Independent got which votes Very pleased with that result. Bodes well for the counties. Certainly a very encouraging result for the Lib Dems, but not the strongest share of the vote and you may lack a visit from Nick Clegg in this ward inthe County elections where he'll have a few fish to fry elsewhere. Actually, that mightn't be a bad thing. The worry for the Lib Dems is that the increase in the Labour vote, if mirrored in other parts of Somerset, could cost seats to the Tories. It is all dependent on how well the parties target - if they are anything like the Portsmouth party, then the Lib Dems will be ok, although I can't see them regaining control of the Council. It is one of those interesting areas where the Lib Dems surprisingly poor performance in 2009 may allow the May results to seem relatively good. I am paying particular attention to Somerset at the moment so will share my guesses closer to the day. |
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Post by marksenior on Jan 26, 2013 10:44:13 GMT
Listener seems to have missed this one held on Thursday
Hailsham TC South and West ward Conservative hold ( I think )
Con 333 Ind 330 Lab 131
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 26, 2013 18:51:31 GMT
Listener seems to have missed this one held on Thursday Hailsham TC South and West ward Conservative hold ( I think ) Con 333 Ind 330 Lab 131 This election was on 10th January with the Hailsham Independent vote being 328. |
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Post by marksenior on Jan 26, 2013 22:22:48 GMT
Listener seems to have missed this one held on Thursday Hailsham TC South and West ward Conservative hold ( I think ) Con 333 Ind 330 Lab 131 This election was on 10th January with the Hailsham Independent vote being 328. So much for an accurate press report  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2013 8:34:25 GMT
This election was on 10th January with the Hailsham Independent vote being 328. So much for an accurate press report As long as it wasn't 334. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 27, 2013 12:43:09 GMT
HEREFORDSHIRE - Ross-on-Wye West (Conservative died)
2011 - LD 617/368, Con 597/383, Ind 522/503, IOC 97
2007 - Con 641/494, LD 526/504, Ind 219
2003 - LD 746/709, Con 736/653, Ind 653/423
Caroline BENNETT (Liberal Democrat) - 270
Richard MAYO (Conservatives) - 695 ELECTED
David RAVENSCROFT (Independent) - 312
SEDGEMOOR - Highbridge & Burnham Marine (Liberal Democrat resigned)[/u]
2011 - LD 782/528/511, Ind 705/543, Con 516/473/471, Lab 451/379/351
Helen GROVES (Liberal Democrats) - 379 ELECTED
Bill HANCOCK (The Conservative Party Candidate) - 288
Ricky HOLCOMBE (The Labour Party Candidate) - 249
Purple WATKINS (Independent) - 68
Sally WILLIAMS (Independent) - 253
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 27, 2013 14:25:27 GMT
Very pleased with that result. Bodes well for the counties. Certainly a very encouraging result for the Lib Dems, but not the strongest share of the vote and you may lack a visit from Nick Clegg in this ward inthe County elections where he'll have a few fish to fry elsewhere. Actually, that mightn't be a bad thing. The worry for the Lib Dems is that the increase in the Labour vote, if mirrored in other parts of Somerset, could cost seats to the Tories. It is all dependent on how well the parties target - if they are anything like the Portsmouth party, then the Lib Dems will be ok, although I can't see them regaining control of the Council. It is one of those interesting areas where the Lib Dems surprisingly poor performance in 2009 may allow the May results to seem relatively good. I am paying particular attention to Somerset at the moment so will share my guesses closer to the day. More a litmus test for me for the county overall. We won our seat there previously on the back of one person who has now gone so there was a real worry that we might lose the seat. We have shown now that we can win without a name necessarily in one of our poorest areas of Somerset, even despite a rise of the Labour vote. This shows our tactics are on track and I am confident now that the Tories will lose their majority. In other areas of Somerset, I can't see Labour doing much damage because in a county-wide election they need to concentrate on making the whole of Bridgwater red and holding onto Wellington (the latter should be pretty straightforward). I agree that we'll be hard pushed to go for majority but I do predict this will be a difficult night for the Tories. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 27, 2013 14:42:30 GMT
I'd hardly characterise Highbridge as one of your poorest areas in Somerset. Sounds like spin to me. In 2007 the LDs easily won the three seats in Highbridge when they only won four seats in the whole of Sedgemoor. Sure it's no Yeovil, but you already have all the seats in places like that. The CC division here is amongst the lowest of hangingf fruit - the LDs can win there and be well short of a majority
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Post by marksenior on Jan 27, 2013 15:16:36 GMT
No less than 11 Conservative seats won in 2009 had a Conservative majority over the LD's of less than 10% but it should also be remembered that the election in May will be fought under new boundaries with 3 fewer councillors and 1 Two member seat .
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