Uruguayan elections

[Georg Ebner]

The left FrenteAmplio/FA has been in front in the OpinionPolls and is also in first results (41% to 28% for the cons. P.Nacional, the liberal P.Colorado coming third).

[Toylyyev]

Results site: eleccionesnacionales.corteelectoral.gub.uy/ResumenResultados.htm


Edit: Projections for both chambers by El País (Uruguay) halfway down the next URL: www.elpais.com.uy/informacion/politica/mira-todos-resultados-elecciones-octubre.html

[polaris]

With just 39% in the first round, it's not looking good for the Frente Amplio, given that the Colorado Party have endorsed Lacalle for the run-off and a hard right populist party (Cabildo Abierto) got 10% in fourth place.

[Georg Ebner]

2 OpinionPolls report a 42:47 lead for the CenterRight-candidate:

es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Encuestas_de_intención_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_presidenciales_de_Uruguay_de_2019

[Georg Ebner]

Local elections are going on:

es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_departamentales_y_municipales_de_Uruguay_de_2020

I have no idea, how the mood is presently. (And wikipedia doesn't present OpinionPolls for the next GE, which is far away.)

[Georg Ebner]

The LocalElections ended quite successfully for the governing PN (due to Corona?). Control (lightblue=PN, darkblue=FA, red=PC):
2000:

2005:

2010:

2015:

2020:

[Georg Ebner]

Ref.res.:

[Georg Ebner]

The primaries were held yesterDay with the expected candidates prevailing.
TurnOut sank by 5% to 35%, especially in the backLand - another very good sign for the FA, in whose primary 42% participated vs. 33% in PN's and 10% in PC's (2019: PN 40%, FA 23%, PC 13%).

[Georg Ebner]

GE toDay!
The big question is, whether the FA-candidate can win outright.
His tendency has been increasing, but so has the man of the Liberals ("Colorados"), who has an outsiderish chance to end ahead of the candidate of ruling PN.

[Georg Ebner]

The FA-candidate began very weak, but with MonteVideo coming more and more in improved to 43% (83% done), roughly in line with the opinionPolls.
Though the defender of the PN-legacy overperformed by ~5%.
Yet, even last time, when FA was worn out, PN won only narrowliest - and they had 11% to take over from "populist"/cons. CA, which is far weaker this time (2%).
Thus a FA-victory remains very likely.