Prediction Competition - October 2019

[johnloony]

Gravesham: Conservative 42 Labour 40 Green 11 UKIP 7
Liverpool: Labour 61 LD 22 Green 13 Conservative 4
North Yorkshire: Independent 56 Conservative 22 LD 15 Green 7
Richmondshire: Independent 64 Conservative 29 Green 7

[yorkshireluke]

Gravesham: Con: 45, Lab: 38, Grn: 12, UKIP: 5.
Liverpool: Lab: 59, LD: 18, Grn: 16, Con: 7.
North Yorkshire: Ind: 48, Con: 40, Grn: 8, LD: 4.
Richmondshire: Ind: 58, Con: 30, Grn: 12.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Gravesham
Conservative 42.7%
Labour 39%
Green 9.9%
UKIP 8.4%

Liverpool
Labour 56.2%
Green 22%
Conservative 14.8%
Liberal Democrats 7%

North Yorkshire
Independent 47%
Conservative 38%
Green 10.2%
Liberal Democrats 4.8%

Richmondshire
Independent 52.1%
Conservative 38%
Green 9.9%


👽

[Right Leaning]

Gravesham, Westcourt: C 46, Lab 42, UKIP 7, Gn 5.
Liverpool, Princes Park: Lab 56, Gn 26, LD 13, C 5.
North Yorkshire, Upper Dales: Ind 55, C 31, LD 10, Gn 4.
Richmondshire, Hawes, High Abbotside and Upper Swaledale: Ind 70, C 22, Gn 8.

[Deleted]

Gravesham, Westcourt: C 50, Lab 35, UKIP 5, Gn 10.
Liverpool, Princes Park: Lab 60, Gn 25, LD 10, C 5.
North Yorkshire, Upper Dales: Ind 60, C 25, LD 10, Gn 5.
Richmondshire, Hawes, High Abbotside and Upper Swaledale: Ind 65, C 30, Gn 5.

[olympian95]

Gravesham: Con 44, Lab 40, UKIP 11, Green 5

Liverpool: Lab 58, Green 22, LD 16, Con 4

N Yorks CC: Ind 54, Con 31, LD 10, Green 5

Richmondshire: Ind 56, Con 36, Green 8

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, all present and correct.

Westcourt, Gravesham: 11 Conservative gain from Labour, with andrewp, robertwaller and Toyylyev Labour hold.
Princes Park, Liverpool: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 25% (Toylyyev) to 43.7% (Tony Otim).
Upper Dales, North Yorkshire: 100% Independent win, with majorities ranging from 8% (yorkshireluke) to 41% (David Boothroyd).
Hawes, High Abbotside and Upper Swaledale, Richmondshire: 100% Independent win, with majorities ranging from 14.1% (alien8ted) to 60% (robertwaller).

Full results available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K4nnGXDQ9_RlkHN0-pTylb08UxtP-aLSW9pWT5_dX6c/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I'd be astonished if Richmondshire were planning to count either the district or county byelection overnight.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Yorkshireluke for the week.

I was doing so well until those Yorkshire results...

[olympian95]

Well done Yorkshire Luke - popped at the post again!

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to Yorkshire Luke. If there had to be someone here who understood Yorkshire elections...

I had gone to bed after Liverpool because I had believed Davıd Boothroyd, so the surprise was profound this morning. On all counts, you might say. Suppose I take some consolation in being the least bad in the North Yorks county seat.

[andrewp]

Yes congratulations to Yorkshire Luke.

I really did think that Jill McMullon would win both Yorkshire seats comfortably. I wonder if, like in multi member wards, some Tory voters in the Hawes area split their votes between the 2 elections or whether MCMullon was ahead in Hawes in the County division, but Yvonne Peacock polled well in her own ward

[iainbhx]

Oct 18, 2019 6:45:30 GMT yellowperil said:

Congratulations to Yorkshire Luke. If there had to be someone here who understood Yorkshire elections...

I had gone to bed after Liverpool because I had believed Davıd Boothroyd, so the surprise was profound this morning. On all counts, you might say. Suppose I take some consolation in being the least bad in the North Yorks county seat.

I had the North Yorks County Seat as a Con gain and then changed it just before the deadline because I had mulled it over too much whilst checking my arithmetic.

[The Bishop]

Oct 17, 2019 16:15:56 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I'd be astonished if Richmondshire were planning to count either the district or county byelection overnight.

Astonishing news for you, then

[yorkshireluke]

Bit late but glad to know I can live up to my name for now.

[johnloony]

Daventry Con 45 Lab 38 LD 17
Devon Lab 42 Con 35 LD 11 Grn 8 FB 4
Flint Lab 52 Ind 48
Powys Con 61 LD 24 Lab 15
Powys Con 65 PC 22 LD 13
SRibble Con 52 LD 26 Ind 22
WLindsey Con 44 LD 29 Lab 17 Brx 10
Wilts Con 70 LD 30

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Daventry
Conservative 51.4%
Liberal Democrats 24.9%
Labour 23.7%

Devon
Conservative 40.9%
Labour 31%
Liberal Democrats 16.3%
For Britain 5.9%
Green 5.9%

Flintshire
Labour 56.5%
Independent 43.5%

Powys - Llandrindod
Conservative 54.9%
Liberal Democrats 30.8%
Labour 14.3%

Powys - Newton South
Conservative 55.2%
Plaid Cymru 23.7%
Liberal Democrats 21.1%

West Lindsey
Conservative 55.6%
Liberal Democrats 29.8%
Brexit 9.8%
Labour 4.8%

Wiltshire
Conservative 69.1%
Liberal Democrats 30 9%


👽

[Pete Whitehead]

It's quite annoying on these threads when people only give the name of the LA in their predictions and not the actual ward. I now have to find another thread in order to find out what for example 'Devon' refers to (presumably somwhere in Exeter judging by the predictions)

[Tony Otim]

Oct 22, 2019 15:03:32 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Oct 22, 2019 13:47:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It's quite annoying on these threads when people only give the name of the LA in their predictions and not the actual ward. I now have to find another thread in order to find out what for example 'Devon' refers to (presumably somwhere in Exeter judging by the predictions)

Apologies kind sir, I will rectify my behavior next week.


👽

Only if you want to ... you're not responsible for rescuing Pete from his own laziness..

[Tony Otim]

Daventry: Con 36.0; Lab 34.2; LD 29.8
Devon: Lab 41.1; Grn 25.1; Con 24.3; LD 7.7; FB 1.8
Flintshire: Ind 57.2; Lab 42.8
Powys Llandrindod North: Con 48.4; LD 39.4; Lab 12.2
Powys Newtown South: Con 43.3; PC 33.3; LD 23.4
South Ribble: Con 50.6; Ind 29.6; LD 19.8
West Lindsey: Con 40.8; LD 37.8; Brx 14.0; Lab 7.4
Wiltshire: Con 65.0; LD 35.0