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Post by robbienicoll on Oct 1, 2019 7:35:58 GMT
There appears to be 25 by-elections during October:
- 7 on 3rd October including a “double” Scottish election
- 3 on 10th
- 4 on 17th
- 8 on 24th
- 1 on 29th
- 1 on 30th
- 1 on 31st
12 of the by-elections are for District Councils, eight elected in May, one where the last election was in May, one where the last election was in 2018 and two where the last election was in 2016
2 are in a Unitary Authority, one where the last election was in May and one where the last election was in 2017
1 “double” election is for a Scottish authority last elected in 2017
1 is for a Metropolitan Borough where the last election was in May
4 are for County Councils last elected in 2017 and
4 are for Welsh authorities last elected in 2017
Conservatives defend 9 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 8 a resignation
Labour defend 7 seats, 2 following the death of the previous Councillor and 5 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 3 following resignations
Independents defend 5 seats, 2 following the death of the previous Councillor and 3 a resignation
SNP defend 1 seat following a death
With all seats having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a slate of 23 candidates, Labour have 18, Liberal Democrats have 19, Greens have 12, Plaid Cymru have 2, UKIP have 2 whilst SNP, Brexit Party, Red Party of Scotland, For Britain, Women's Equality Party, The Borough First and Holland on Sea and Eastcliff Matters have 1 apiece along with 8 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 8 seats
- a total of 79 candidates for 22 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 1, 2019 8:34:46 GMT
Placeholder in case anyone needs to post today. Full spiel will be up tonight. You may have noticed that a prediction for Oct 3 has been placed on the September thread by johnloony. Well, sort of. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Oct 1, 2019 10:02:21 GMT
Placeholder in case anyone needs to post today. Full spiel will be up tonight. You may have noticed that a prediction for Oct 3 has been placed on the September thread by johnloony . Well, sort of. Yes got that one, although given the candidate is at the same uni as me (in Glasgow, about 150 miles from Aberdeen) I think it's a brave punt! |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 1, 2019 20:12:06 GMT
Aberdeen: SNP 41.5; Con 23.1; LD 15.7; Lab 14.0; Grn 3.3; Ind 1.3; UKIP 0.7; Red 0.4 (SNP and Con (just) elected).
Cardiff: Con 37.6; Lab 31.0; PC 19.1; LD 10.3; Grn 2.0
Charnwood: Con 44.4; Grn 36.8; Lab 18.8
Essex: HOSEM 41.1; Con 32.1; Ind 14.9; Lab 7.4; LD 3.4; Grn 1.1
St Albans: LD 68.3; Con 14.2; Grn 9.5; Lab 8.0
Somerset West & Taunton: LD 42.7; Con 26.8; Grn 22.1; Lab 8.4
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 2, 2019 17:42:45 GMT
Aberdeen
SNP 40.1%
Conservative 24%
Liberal Democrat 19.4%
Labour 12%
Green 2.1%
Independent 1.2%
UKIP 0.8%
Red 0.4%
SNP and Conservative elected
Cardiff
Conservative 35.1%
Labour 33%
PC 18.1%
Liberal Democrat 9%
Green 4.8%
Charnwood
Conservative 46%
Green 32%
Labour 22%
Essex
Holland 38%
Conservative 31.8%
Independent 17%
Labour 8.4%
Liberal Democrat 2.9%
Green 1.9%
St Albans
Liberal Democrat 63.2%
Conservative 17%
Green 11%
Labour 8.8%
Somerset
Liberal Democrat 49.1%
Conservative 25.7%
Green 19.9%
Labour 5.3%
👽
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 2, 2019 20:39:55 GMT
Going to do this now - rather than forget in the morning
Bridge of Don (Aberdeen SUA) - SNP 44%, Con 20% LDm 18% Lab 10% Grn 6% Ind 1% UKIP 0.6% Red 0.4% SNP and LDm elected.
Whitchurch & Tongwynlais (Cardiff WUA) - Con 36% Lab 30% PC 19% LDm 10% Grn 5%
Syston West (Charnwood BC) - Con 44% Grn 33% Lab 23%
Clacton East (Essex CC): Con 35% HOSER 30% Ind 21% Lab 8% LDm 4% Grn 2%
Clarence (St Albans BC): LDm 61% Con 16% Grn 14% Lab 9%
Norton Fitzwarren & Staplegrove (Somerset West & Taunton DC): LDm 42% Grn 27% Con 23% Lab 8%
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Post by greenhert on Oct 2, 2019 22:02:58 GMT
Aberdeen UA, Bridge of Don (1st preferences): SNP 40, Liberal Democrats 22, Conservative 20, Labour 10, Green 5,Independent (McLean) 1, UKIP 1, Red Party 1. SNP hold and Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Cardiff UA, Whitchurch & Tongwynlais: Conservative 35, Labour 31, Plaid Cymru 18, Liberal Democrats 12, Green 4.
Charnwood BC, Syston West: Green 45, Conservative 38, Labour 17.
Essex CC, Clacton East: Independent (Stephenson) 32, Conservative 28, Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters 27, Labour 7, Green 3, Liberal Democrats 3. Independent gain from other Independent.
St Albans BC, Clarence: Liberal Democrats 61, Conservative 21, Green 11, Labour 7.
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Norton Fitzwarren & Staplegrove: Liberal Democrats 40, Green 30, Conservative 23, Labour 7. Liberal Democrat gain from Independent.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 2, 2019 22:14:11 GMT
Aberdeen, Bridge of Don: Con 20, Lab 9, LD 17, Green 5, UKIP 0.5, SNP 44, Red 0.5, Ind 4. Con &SNP win on transfers.
Cardiff, Whitchurch & Tongwynlais: Con 35, Lab 28, LD 9, Green 3, PC 24.
Charnwood, Syston W: Con 41, Lab 21, Green 38.
Essex, Clacton E: Con 30, Lab 6, LD 5, Green 1, Ind 27, HoSEM 31.
St Albans, Clarence: Con 19, Lab 9, LD 60, Green 12.
Somerset West & Taunton, Norton Fitzwarren& Staplegrove: Con 27, Lab 9, LD 43, Green 21.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 2, 2019 22:30:37 GMT
Aberdeen: SNP 40; Con 21; LD 23; Lab 9; Grn 4; Ind 1; UKIP 1; Red 1 (SNP and LD elected).
Cardiff: Con 33; Lab 34; PC 17; LD 14; Grn 4
Charnwood: Con 45; Grn 43; Lab 12
Essex: HOSEM 36; Con 30; Ind 20; Lab 7; LD 5; Grn 2
St Albans: LD 64; Con 10; Grn 14; Lab 12
Somerset West & Taunton: LD 52; Con 25; Grn 18; Lab 5
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 776 
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Post by yorkshireluke on Oct 2, 2019 22:55:10 GMT
Gonna set a weekly reminder to actually do this this month.
Aberdeen: SNP 33, Con 27, LD 24, Lab 6, Grn 5, Ind 3, UKIP 1, RP 1. SNP and Con to win.
Cardiff: Con 36, Lab 26, PC 18, LD 16, Grn 4.
Charnwood: Con 48, Lab 28, Grn 24.
Essex: HOSEM 39, Con 37, LD 8, Lab 6, Ind 6, Grn 4.
St Albans: LD 65, Con 17, Grn 10, Lab 8.
Somerset West & Taunton: LD 40, Grn 24, Con 22, Lab 14.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 2, 2019 23:31:28 GMT
ABERDEEN Bridge of Don: SNP 39, C 22, L Dem 19, Lab 10, Ind 4, SGP 3, UKIP 2, Red 1. SNP and L Dem win.
CARDIFF Whitchurch and Tongwynlais: C 37, Lab 25, PC 19, L Dem 14, GP 5
CHARNWOOD Syston West: C 48, GP 35, Lab 17..
ESSEX Clacton East: HOS&EM 44, C 30, Ind 10, L Dem 8, Lab 5, GP 3
ST ALBANS Clarence: L Dem 62, C 20, GP 10, Lab 8
SOMERSET WEST AND TAUNTON Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove: L Dem 57, C 27, GP 13, Lab 3
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,557
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Post by johnloony on Oct 3, 2019 0:44:39 GMT
Aberdeen: SNP 39 Con 22 LD 21 Lab 9 Ind 3 Green 4 UKIP 1 Red 0 (SNP & LD)
Cardiff: Con 35 Lab 29 PC 19 LD 13 Green 4
Charnwood: Con 44 Green 36 Lab 20
Essex: HOSEM 34 Con 32 Ind 19 LD 6 Lab 6 Green 3
St Albans: LD 63 Con 17 Green 11 Lab 9
Somerset W&T: LD 46 Con 25 Green 22 Lab 7
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 3, 2019 0:45:26 GMT
Aberdeen UA, Bridge of Don: Conservative 23, Labour 10, Liberal Democrat 20, Green 3.1, SNP 41, UKIP 0.9, Red Party of Scotland 0.5, Independent 1.5. SNP & Liberal Democrat on tranfers.
Cardiff UA, Whitchurch & Tongwynlais: Conservative 34, Labour 30, Liberal Democrat 8, Green 3, Plaid Cymru 25.
Charnwood BC, Syston West: Green 44, Conservative 43.9, Labour 12.1.
Essex CC, Clacton East: Conservative 33, Labour 8, Liberal Democrat 2, Green 4, Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters 24, Independent 29.
St Albans DC, Clarence: Conservative 19, Labour 8, Liberal Democrat 67, Green 6.
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Norton Fitzwarren & Staplegrove: Conservative 32, Labour 3, Liberal Democrat 54, Green 11.
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Post by Right Leaning on Oct 3, 2019 6:51:24 GMT
Aberdeen Bridge of Don: SNP 39, C 23, LD 22, Lab 9, Gn 4, Ind 1, UKIP 1, Red 1 (SNP and LD elected).
Cardiff Whitchurch & Tongwynlais: C 34, Lab 32, PC 16, LD 14, Gn 4
Charnwood Syston West: C 45, Gn 40; Lab 15
Essex Clacton East: HOSEM 39, C 32, Ind 15, Lab 7, LD 5, Gn 2
St Albans Clarence: LD 66, C 18, Gn 9, Lab 7
Somerset West & Taunton Norton Fitzwarren & Staplegrove: LD 48, C 28, Gn 18; Lab 6
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2019 6:55:46 GMT
Aberdeen: SNP 44 Con 16 LD 19 Lab 5 Ind 12 Green 2 UKIP 1 Red 1 (SNP & Con)
Cardiff: Con 36 Lab 33 PC 12 LD 18 Green 4
Charnwood: Con 43 Green 35 Lab 22
Essex: HOSEM 30 Con 35 Ind 20 LD 7 Lab 5 Green 3
Somerset W&T: LD 40 Con 30 Green 20 Lab 10
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 3, 2019 7:07:08 GMT
Aberdeen, Bridge Of Don. SNP 39, Con 22, Lib Dem 18, Lab 12, Green 5, Ind 2, UKIP 1, Red 1. SNP and Con elected.
Cardiff, Whitchurch and Tongwynlais. Lab 34, Con 33, PC 17, Lib Dem 12, Green 4
Charnwood, Syston West Con 45, Green 40, Lab 15
Essex, Clacton East HOSEM 33, Ind 26, Con 25, Lab 9, Green 4, Lib Dem 3
St Albans, Clarence. Lib Dem 65, Con 14, Lab 10, Green 11
Somerset West and Taunton, Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove Lib Dem 50, Con 28, Green 12, Lab 10
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 3, 2019 7:12:08 GMT
Aberdeen: SNP 44 Con 16 LD 19 Lab 5 Ind 12 Green 2 UKIP 1 Red 1 (SNP & Con) Cardiff: Con 36 Lab 33 PC 12 LD 18 Green 4 Charnwood: Con 43 Green 35 Lab 22 Essex: HOSEM 30 Con 35 Ind 20 LD 7 Lab 5 Green 3 Somerset W&T: LD 40 Con 30 Green 20 Lab 10 Whatever happened to Clarence? |
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Post by olympian95 on Oct 3, 2019 7:51:51 GMT
Aberdeen: SNP 33, Con 27, LD 17, Lab 12, Green 5, UKIP, 3, ind 2, Red 1
Cardiff: Con 37, Lab 33, PC 16, LD 8, Green 6
Charnwood: Con 49, Green 26, Lab 25
Essex: HOSEM 35, Con 30, Ind 17, Lab 10, LD 6, Green 2
St Albans: LD 61, Con 23, Green 9, Lab 7
Somerset W: LD 53, Con 20, Green 19, Lab 8
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Post by olympian95 on Oct 3, 2019 8:05:42 GMT
Con & SNP elected for the Aberdeen one  |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 3, 2019 9:50:46 GMT
This could be an interesting week. Of the 7 contests, I think we have 3 certainties- the SNP seat in Aberdeen, St Albans and Somerset West, and 4 where we have different winners predicted.
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