|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 11, 2019 10:08:13 GMT
It just occured to me to add up the votes in the two elections counted last night , in both of which there was a straightforward 3-way contest. It comes out as Lab 1028, LD 1018, Con 987. Remarkably even, and of course resulting in one Labour hold and one LD hold.Of course when we have the Basingstoke result(soon?) the Tories will romp ahead in the absence of Lab and Lib candidates, although it remains to be seen if they win the seat.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 11, 2019 10:14:32 GMT
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE Bramley and Sherfield
TOMBLIN, Chris (Independent) 800
GROOM, Angus Archie Herbert (Conservative) 449
BOWYER, Joyce Pamela (Independent) 150
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2019 10:15:35 GMT
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE Bramley and Sherfield TOMBLIN, Chris (Independent) 800 GROOM, Angus Archie Herbert (Conservative) 449 BOWYER, Joyce Pamela (Independent) 150 Quite a clear victory there... |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2019 10:17:30 GMT
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE Bramley and Sherfield TOMBLIN, Chris (Independent) 800 GROOM, Angus Archie Herbert (Conservative) 449 BOWYER, Joyce Pamela (Independent) 150 Quite a clear victory there... the only risk to him winning was the other Independent doing better I think! |
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Oct 11, 2019 10:19:36 GMT
After I provided the figures to the Guardian I discovered that I had omitted one by-election. However, this did not alter the point. For clarity to the experts on here, I also counted Bridge of Don as one, not two, vacancies.
The results in Watford and Corby overnight confirm the trend which has now lasted for over 2 months.
It was the duration of Labour's ongoing vote share losses that surprised me.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 11, 2019 10:21:40 GMT
Quite a clear victory there... the only risk to him winning was the other Independent doing better I think! The other Independent was a Conservative borough councillor 2015-19 who seems to have fallen out with the party, and is currently a parish councillor in Sherfield (the smaller of the two villages in the ward). |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 11, 2019 10:27:48 GMT
The Corby result is particularly good for the Tories as it's a strong increase on 2015 which was in itself generally a pretty good year for them. Though as already pointed out a UKIP candidate polled well then. Labour will probably be quite pleased to be down "only" 5 points given that a LibDem intervened this time, the Watford result is rather worse for them. And that good UKIP result would have pushed down the Labour % share then as well. Corby council have inexplicably removed the 2015 local election results, but it would be more interesting to compare the Labour vote as a % of ballot papers issued then - it would be significantly higher than the 61% you are working on |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 11, 2019 10:30:17 GMT
It just occured to me to add up the votes in the two elections counted last night , in both of which there was a straightforward 3-way contest. It comes out as Lab 1028, LD 1018, Con 987. Remarkably even, and of course resulting in one Labour hold and one LD hold.Of course when we have the Basingstoke result(soon?) the Tories will romp ahead in the absence of Lab and Lib candidates, although it remains to be seen if they win the seat. Now Con 1436 Lab 1028 LD 1018 Ind 950 And the Conservatives come away with no seats as each of the other parties have their vote hugely concentrated in one ward, with the Tories winning a remarkably similar numerical vote in each (497, 490, 449) |
|
|
|
Post by robbienicoll on Oct 11, 2019 10:37:42 GMT
Headline figures: Bramley and Sherfield, Basingstoke and Deane: Swing not meaningful, but ~24% drop for the Conservatives since May, and ~22% since 2016. Independent gain from Conservative. Beanfield, Corby: 11.3% swing from Labour to Conservative since 2015 (on top vote). Labour hold. Tudor, Watford: 9.2% from Lib Dem to Conservative since May and 0.7% since 2016, but 3% from Conservative to Lib Dem since 2018. Liberal Democrat hold. Full stats and shares at: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13U0acKKFNqIZ6dMrZNPGEl6rKPmcWvvNjniPF5J0Rus/edit?usp=sharing |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Oct 11, 2019 12:28:42 GMT
Labour's results in council byelections were almost uniformly dismal in the run up to May calling the 2017 GE. (indeed, it is speculated it may have been a factor in her decision) One thing noticeable in the contests after it was called, though, is that Labour started doing better. Though few saw much in it at the time, it was a "leading indicator". Here is MiddleEnglander's summary from early 2017. Both Tories and Labour were doing badly, with Lib Dems doing well, as now.
I would say the difference from 2017 is that most people are currently expecting a General Election, and in many cases voting on those lines more than usual, and that the better Lib Dem performance is matched this time by the national polls whereas in April 2017 the Lib Dems were only marginally up on the 2015 GE
There have been 49 by-elections for 50 seats during the January to April 2017 period with 25 (50%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:
Party Contested Defended Retained Gained Lost Won retention rate
Conservative
50 23 13 6 10 19 57%
Labour
43 13 7 2 6 9 54%
Liberal Democrat
40 5 3 11 2 14 60%
Edit: Formatting screwed up so I just listed Lab Con and LD ^ Bollington First (1 seat contested), Fylde Ratepayers (1), Its Our County (1) and Residents for Uttlesford (2) ^^ 10 Independents contested 7 by-elections Conservatives contested 100% of the 50 seats, Labour 86%, Liberal Democrats 80% whilst Greens contested 60% and UKIP 68%. Conservatives gained 6 seats, - Broxbourne: Waltham Cross, Harrow: Kenton East, Middlesbrough: Coulby Newham and Salford: Kersal from Labour along with Derby: Derwent and Tendring: St James from UKIP but the latter sitting as Coastal Independent whilst - losing 8 to Liberal Democrats, Cotswold: Fairford North, South Hams: Charterlands and West Somerset: Dunster & Timberscombe being small single member wards together with Kettering: Barton, North Norfolk: Waterside, Three Rivers: Gade Valley, West Oxfordshire: Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield as well as Wokingham: Emmbrook and - losing Basingstoke & Deane: Winklebury to Labour and Cheshire East: Bollington to Bollington First Labour gained 2 seats in Basingstoke & Deane, Winklebury from Conservative and Rotherham: Dinnington from UKIP whilst - losing 4 to Conservatives in Broxbourne: Waltham Cross, Harrow: Kenton East, Middlesbrough: Coulby Newham and Salford: Kersall along with 2 to Liberal Democrats in Rotherham: Brinsworth & Catcliffe and Sunderland: Sandhill Liberal Democrats gained 8 seats from Conservatives, 2 from Labour along with Aylesbury Vale: Elmhurst from UKIP - whilst losing 2 seats to Residents for Uttlesford in Uttlesford: Elsenham & Henham Greens gained Forest of Dean: Lydbrook & Ruardene from UKIP and Herefordshire: Leominster South from an Independent UKIP gained Tendring: Great & Little Oakley, a small single member ward, from an Independent whilst - losing a 2 seats to Conservative in Derby: Derwent and Tendring: St James although sitting as Coastal Independent together with one to each to Labour in Rotherham: Dinnington., Liberal Democrat in Aylesbury Vale: Elmhurst and Green in Forest of Dean: Lydbrook & Ruardene Residents gained 2 seats in Uttleford: Elsenham & Henham from Liberal Democrats and a seat as Bollington First from Conservatives in Cheshire East: Bollington Independents lost both their seats being defended, Herefordshire: Leominster South to a Green and Tendring: Great & Little Oakley to UKIP Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/9147/election-result-summary-january-april#ixzz622zGezuX |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 11, 2019 15:24:22 GMT
So the Tories lose their majority on Basingstoke and Deane council, right? Are they kept in power by casting vote, or by arrangement with one or more indies?
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2019 15:46:36 GMT
So the Tories lose their majority on Basingstoke and Deane council, right? Are they kept in power by casting vote, or by arrangement with one or more indies? They didn’t have a majority before. It was 30/30 |
|
Smartie
Labour
Enter your message here...
Posts: 836 
|
Post by Smartie on Oct 12, 2019 8:06:42 GMT
Allowing for the inevitable bit of churn, I would say the 10% picked up by the Lib Dems came in roughly equal amounts from Lab and Con, while the Con candidate hoovered up all the UKIP votebut that left them still well behind Labour. You totally ignored what I said about there having previously been only one UKIP candidate for three seats. Which means that most of 'the UKIP vote' was already hoovered up by Conservative and Labour candidates in 2015. But of course turnout is inevitably much lower in this by-election, so talking of wholesle transfers of blocks of voters is hopelessly simplistic 2015 was a general election Labour voters in safe seats turn out for a general not so much for a local We can all spin as we like Labour won the seat as expected, the Tory has had an uplift most likely based on a hard Brexit vote |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2019 9:13:21 GMT
So the Tories lose their majority on Basingstoke and Deane council, right? Are they kept in power by casting vote, or by arrangement with one or more indies? They didn’t have a majority before. It was 30/30 No, but they had effective control through the "casting vote" thing. A "rainbow coalition" against them is at least possible now? |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Oct 12, 2019 9:29:22 GMT
They didn’t have a majority before. It was 30/30 No, but they had effective control through the "casting vote" thing. A "rainbow coalition" against them is at least possible now? Yes it is. Probably depends on what type of Independents they are. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 12, 2019 10:32:03 GMT
No, but they had effective control through the "casting vote" thing. A "rainbow coalition" against them is at least possible now? Yes it is. Probably depends on what type of Independents they are. Probably the type who would like to hold their seats next May (there are all-out elections on new boundaries) and who for the most part represent areas where putting a Labour led administration into power would go down like a cup of cold sick |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 12, 2019 12:29:58 GMT
Yes it is. Probably depends on what type of Independents they are. Probably the type who would like to hold their seats next May (there are all-out elections on new boundaries) and who for the most part represent areas where putting a Labour led administration into power would go down like a cup of cold sickI've always thought that an odd phrase. Is a cup of cold sick worse than one of warm sick? Or maybe Corbyn= cold sick. Johnson = warm sick, in which case it would be a close call. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Oct 12, 2019 17:10:37 GMT
Probably the type who would like to hold their seats next May (there are all-out elections on new boundaries) and who for the most part represent areas where putting a Labour led administration into power would go down like a cup of cold sickI've always thought that an odd phrase. Is a cup of cold sick worse than one of warm sick? Or maybe Corbyn= cold sick. Johnson = warm sick, in which case it would be a close call. And Farage is projectile vomit? |
|
Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
|
Post by Toylyyev on Oct 13, 2019 9:02:51 GMT
Another comparison of the numbers from last Thursday's by-elections with the average votes from the 2019 locals. The blue coloured data are the results for the Conservatives with the Basingstoke and Dean ward omitted, reflecting the assumption that the nature of the contest to the Conservative candidate was qualitatively altered by the two Independent candidates respective to the May election. 10/10/19 Con Lab LD Ind Ind votes electorate
Bramley & Sherfield 449 - - 800 150 1399 4714
Tudor 490 210 871 - - 1571 5169
2/5/19 Con Lab LD Ind Ind votes electorate
Bramley & Sherfield 929 114 201 408 - 1652 4641
Tudor 306 364 1031 - - 1701 5238
yields where applicable:
Con 939/2970 31.6% (-5.2) - 2 wards
Con 490/1571 31.2% (+13.2) - 1 ward
Lab 210/1571 13.4% (-8) - 1 ward
LD 871/1571 55.4% (-5.2) - 1 ward
Grn -
--------------------------------------------
vvs¹ 2970/9883 30.1% - 2 wards
and adding last week's results where applicable:
Con 2152/6866 31.3% (+1.8) - 2,3
Con 1703/5467 31.2% (+7.7) - 1,3
Lab 467/5467 8.5% (-6.5) - 1,3
LD 2734/4558 60% (+3.2) - 1,2
Grn 563/3896 14.5% (-4) - 0,3
----------------------------------------
vvs¹ 6866/25117 27.3% - 2,3
and now the linearly decreasing average for the last 4 Thursdays²: (i.e. factored by 1, 0.75, 0.5, & 0.25 from last to fourth last)
Con 3193/9819.5 32.5% (+0.7) - 2,3,4,3
Con 2742/8420.5 32.6% (+4.5) - 1,3,4,3
Lab 1591.5/7876.5 20.2% (-6.7) - 1,3,3,3
LD 3190.25/7091.75 45% (+5.9) - 1,2,3,3
Grn 579.75/5216.5 11.1% (-5.7) - 0,3,2,2
-------------------------------------------
vvs¹ 9818.5/37649.5 26.1% - 2,3,4,3
[1] vvs: Valid vote share of total electorate for all the wards, weighted as indicated in the last table. [2] Unlike in May the 19th September Chestfield by-election had an Independent with 5.3% of the vote, and the Independent in Vivary received a 13.2% vote share versus 25.9% for the Independent in May. Because all of the four parties did have candidates in both wards, except for a Green candidate lacking in the May Vivary poll, i have included both wards in the averages where applicable. Old Swan had the four parties standing plus Liberal and Old Swan Against Cuts candidates with 14.1% (+6.2) and 6.6% (+3.6) respectively. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 13, 2019 20:15:18 GMT
Yes it is. Probably depends on what type of Independents they are. Probably the type who would like to hold their seats next May (there are all-out elections on new boundaries) and who for the most part represent areas where putting a Labour led administration into power would go down like a cup of cold sick I think you've described it very aptly there. I know Bramley and Bramshill (not far away) quite well.Bramley would much rather be in Hart,the locals probably turn their noses up at any authority containing the word "Basingstoke" and definitely would hate a Labour administration focused on Basingstoke. |
|
