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Post by yellowperil on Oct 10, 2019 22:59:07 GMT
That's a pretty good swing too (in Corby) You probably have to add the UKIP vote to the Tory one from last time to get a reasonable assessment of that. If you just take Lab>Con that is pretty misleading. |
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Post by ideal4radio on Oct 10, 2019 22:59:15 GMT
CORBY Beanfield DALZIEL, Alison (Labour) 818 BOYD, Ray (Conservative) 497 STANBRA, Chris (Liberal Democrat) 147 Vote share from 2015 ..... Lab ( -5.2% ) Con ( + 17.5% ) L/D ( + 10.1% ) ... No Candidate in 2015 UKIP ( - 22.4% ) .... No Candidate in 2019 Statistically true, but what conclusions to draw, I'm beggared if I know .... ! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2019 23:11:34 GMT
That's a pretty good swing too (in Corby) You probably have to add the UKIP vote to the Tory one from last time to get a reasonable assessment of that. If you just take Lab>Con that is pretty misleading. There was one UKIP candidate for three vacancies and while there will have been a few plumpers, most of those who voted for them will also have cast votes for other candidates. It would be very misguided to assume that in a ward like this, most of them would have opted for the Conservative candidates. Just look at the raw vote. The Conservative is about on a par with the vote their candidates won in 2015 (on much higher turnout) while Labour down from over 2,000 to about 800. I don't think you can spin it as other than a good Tory result, esepcilly given their problems in Northamptonshire lately |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 10, 2019 23:13:36 GMT
Allowing for the inevitable bit of churn, I would say the 10% picked up by the Lib Dems came in roughly equal amounts from Lab and Con, while the Con candidate hoovered up all the UKIP votebut that left them still well behind Labour.
I simplify of course and I take Pete's point about the UKIP vote last time being a single candidate - its not that obvious where its' come from as there is no obvious dent in the other candidates votes- there wasn't much of an obvious weak link among the other candidates. But if its not obvious where the UKIP votes came from last time, it's pretty obvious where they've gone this time.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 10, 2019 23:20:25 GMT
Do we know whether Basingstoke is counting tonight? I have a feeling it's somewhere which has gone for next-day counting in the past?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2019 23:24:49 GMT
Allowing for the inevitable bit of churn, I would say the 10% picked up by the Lib Dems came in roughly equal amounts from Lab and Con, while the Con candidate hoovered up all the UKIP votebut that left them still well behind Labour. You totally ignored what I said about there having previously been only one UKIP candidate for three seats. Which means that most of 'the UKIP vote' was already hoovered up by Conservative and Labour candidates in 2015. But of course turnout is inevitably much lower in this by-election, so talking of wholesle transfers of blocks of voters is hopelessly simplistic |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 10, 2019 23:25:22 GMT
Bramley and Sherfield is quite a big ward, but there are only three polling stations which aren't that far apart. Electorate was 4,641 in May. Certainly ought to have counted by now if it was counting on the night.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 10, 2019 23:31:46 GMT
Allowing for the inevitable bit of churn, I would say the 10% picked up by the Lib Dems came in roughly equal amounts from Lab and Con, while the Con candidate hoovered up all the UKIP votebut that left them still well behind Labour. You totally ignored what I said about there having previously been only one UKIP candidate for three seats. Which means that most of 'the UKIP vote' was already hoovered up by Conservative and Labour candidates in 2015. But of course turnout is inevitably much lower in this by-election, so talking of wholesle transfers of blocks of voters is hopelessly simplistic I didn't ignore it, we posted at much the same time so I couldn't take your point as I hadn't read it at the time. I have edited my post somewhat. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 10, 2019 23:57:01 GMT
No SNP candidate in Corby?
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Post by phil156 on Oct 11, 2019 0:12:37 GMT
Where is Basingstoke result somebody must know
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 11, 2019 0:14:28 GMT
Where is Basingstoke result somebody must know Looks 99.99% that they’re not counting until tomorrow. There’s not even the usual “off to the count” Tweet from any of the candidates. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2019 6:53:03 GMT
2 pretty good Conservative results last night. A vote share higher than all entries in the prediction comp in Watford and higher than all but 2 in Corby.
Could well be counter balanced by a loss in Basingstoke this morning, but of course that will tell us less about performance against other parties.
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Post by evergreenadam on Oct 11, 2019 7:06:27 GMT
2 pretty good Conservative results last night. A vote share higher than all entries in the prediction comp in St Albans, and higher than all but 2 in Corby. Could well be counter balanced by a loss in Basingstoke this morning, but of course that will tell us less about performance against other parties. You mean Watford not St Alban’s! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2019 7:12:09 GMT
Blasphemy
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2019 7:18:39 GMT
2 pretty good Conservative results last night. A vote share higher than all entries in the prediction comp in St Albans, and higher than all but 2 in Corby. Could well be counter balanced by a loss in Basingstoke this morning, but of course that will tell us less about performance against other parties. You mean Watford not St Alban’s! I do. Corrected! |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2019 7:53:58 GMT
The Corby result is particularly good for the Tories as it's a strong increase on 2015 which was in itself generally a pretty good year for them.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2019 9:39:23 GMT
The Corby result is particularly good for the Tories as it's a strong increase on 2015 which was in itself generally a pretty good year for them. Though as already pointed out a UKIP candidate polled well then. Labour will probably be quite pleased to be down "only" 5 points given that a LibDem intervened this time, the Watford result is rather worse for them. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 11, 2019 10:00:30 GMT
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Oct 11, 2019 10:02:58 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2019 10:08:01 GMT
Labour's results in council byelections were almost uniformly dismal in the run up to May calling the 2017 GE. (indeed, it is speculated it may have been a factor in her decision) One thing noticeable in the contests after it was called, though, is that Labour started doing better. Though few saw much in it at the time, it was a "leading indicator". |
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