Tunesian Presidental Election

[markgoodair]

Tunisia goes to the polls tommorow to elect a new President.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 14, 2019 21:15:01 GMT markgoodair said:

Tunisia goes to the polls tommorow to elect a new President.

A real success story.  A democratic transfer of power from one administration to the next will be frankly incredible in that region.  Hopefully Tunisia can become a political and economic beacon.

[Toylyyev]

Morocco has done a bit better since 2011. 

Algeria  Morocco  Tunisia
87 .396  87 .131  87 .194 (07/11/87 Ben Ali coup)
99 .359  99 .128  99 .205 (15/04/99 'election' of Bouteflika, 23/07/99 ascension of Mohammed VI)
11 .313  11 .165  11 .243
14 .314  16 .171  14 .251
19 .296  19 .175  19 .241
-------  -------  -------
19 .294  19 .173  19 .237

Regional relative PPPGDP for presidential election years in Algeria and Tunisia, and parliamentary elections years in Morocco starting starting from 2011, still according to the same method as in vote-2012.proboards.com/post/787418


Edit: (27/10) Revised data for 2019 from the October 2019 database (link) added to the table below the dotted lines.

[markgoodair]

Kais Saied leading with 19.5% of the vote.

[myth11]

Sept 15, 2019 20:31:30 GMT markgoodair said:

Kais Saied leading with 19.5% of the vote.

Not a liberal that,s for sure and the guy to join him in the run off Nabil Karoui is currently in jail.

[seanryanj]

Sept 15, 2019 21:51:28 GMT myth11 said:

Sept 15, 2019 20:31:30 GMT markgoodair said:

Kais Saied leading with 19.5% of the vote.

Not a liberal that,s for sure and the guy to join him in the run off Nabil Karoui is currently in jail.

To quote Kent Brockman " Democrracy simply doesn't work"

[greatkingrat]

Do the candidates have bad coughs?

[Toylyyev]

Exit polls for the legislative elections: (hesitating to open a separate thread here)

        Emrhad Conseil                            Sigma Conseil

              Ennahdha 18.29%  (-9.50)                 Ennahdha 17.5% (-10.3)
           Qalb Tounes¹16.28%                       Qalb Tounes¹16.8%
  Courant démocratique  6.37%  (+4.44)   Parti destourien libre  6.5%  (+5.2)
Parti destourien libre  6.14%  (+4.8)                    Karama³ 5.7%
   Mouvement du peuple  6.08%  (+4.7        Mouvement du peuple  5.5%  (+4.2)
          Tahya Tounes² 5.24%                      Tahya Tounes² 5.1%
          Nidaa Tounes  2.57% (-34.99)     Courant démocratique  4.9%  (+3)

www.tunisie-tribune.com/2019/10/06/legislatives-2019-le-parti-dennahdha-en-tete-1829-suivi-et-qalb-tounes-de-nabil-karoui-1628-selon-emrhod-selon/ (French)
www.tunisie-tribune.com/2019/10/06/legislatives-2019-ennahdha-et-qalb-tounes-en-tete-selon-sigma-conseil/ (French)

Turnout is  41.3% in the country and 16.4% for expats: www.tap.info.tn/fr/Législatives/11897591-législatives-2019 (French)

Preliminary results are expected for Wednesday according to the Tunisian Independent High Authority for Elections. swissinfo.ch (French)


[1] Qalb Tounes (Heart of Tunisia) is the party of Nabil Karoui, who came second in the first round of the presidential poll.
[2] Tahya Tounes (Long Live Tunisia) is a Nidaa Tounes spin-off: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Live_Tunisia
[3] Karama (Dignity) is a new outfit characterized with the words 'populism, islamism, conservatism, francophobia' in the French wikipedia.

[Toylyyev]

The already mentioned Tunisian Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE) has given seat numbers derived from the preliminary results. Here's their site btw, but be prepared to have to hunt for the numbers, so far i had no luck: www.isie.tn/ _{(Now up, but in Arabic)}

The declared results are as follows:

                    Ennahdha  52 (-17)
                 Qalb Tounes  38 
     Le courant démocratique  22 (+19)
      La coalition Al Karama  21
   Le parti destourien libre  17
      Le mouvement du peuple  16 (+13)
                Tahya Tounes  14
             Machrouu Tounes¹  4
Union populaire républicaine   3
                Nidaa Tounes   3 (-83)
                     Errahma²  3
                    Al Badil   3
                 Afek Tounes   2  (-6)
                     Al Amal   2
                      others³ 17

                      Total# 217

huffpostmaghreb.com: Voici la composition de la future assemblée des représentants du peuple (en attendant les recours éventuels)

The ISIE has invalidated the Errahma³ list in Ben Arous for reasons of 'political publicity', with their seat going to the Echaab movement [Mouvement du peuple]. The same seems to have happened to Aïch Tounsi (Living like a Tunisian) after a partial invalidation of their list. Other lists apparently also seem to have been invalidated, some partially.

www.leconomistemaghrebin.com/2019/10/09/lisie-ecarte-la-liste-du-parti-errahma-a-ben-arous/
huffpostmaghreb.com: Élection législative: Errahma perd son siège à Ben Arous et Aïch Tounsi la voix des Tunisiens de l'étranger sur France Sud pour publicité politique


[1] Machrouu Tounes (Project Tunisia): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machrouu_Tounes
[2] Hizb Errahma (Party of Compassion) are Salafists according to the French wikipedia.
[3] 17 different lists with one seat.


Edit: (20/10) Preliminary result with vote totals and source (Arabic) now up at fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élections_législatives_tunisiennes_de_2019#Résultats

[markgoodair]

Kais Saied has won.