Croatian Presidential Elections 2019/2020

[Georg Ebner]

The president will be elected in December (RunOff in January).

The blond&pretty HDZ-incumbent is in OpinionPolls in front at 30%, followed by her exPM Milanovic (exCommunistic SDP, supported by their usual allies HSS (peasants), HSU (pensionists) and the regionalist PGS [from the northern coast around Rijeka; the Istrian IDS will doubtlessly follow]) around 25%; third is a popular FolkSinger supported by the right right of HDZ (Hrast&HKS [cath.&cons.], HSP-1861 [nat.], ...), but also by rightliberal (valid these days?) Most/Bridge, at 15-20%; fourth around 10% is an exJudge, who ran already in the EP-election (ending in single digits).

[Georg Ebner]

Was happening today. With over 90% counted SDP's exPM Milanovic is clearly ahead. The HDZ-incumbent seems to be second.
So better for Milanovic than most polls had indicated; yet, the third-placed candidate was mainly endorsed by the Conservatives&Nationalists (also by liberal MOST and a GREEN-party), so Mrs.GrabarK. should win in the RunOff (but narrowlier than thought).

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Croatian_presidential_election

[Georg Ebner]

Except 33 PreCincts in ZagrebCity everything is counted. Mrs. GrabarKitarovic seems to have achieved the second place.

Electoral Commission:

www.izbori.hr/pre2019/rezultati/1/

[iain]

Dec 22, 2019 20:53:06 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Was happening today. With over 90% counted SDP's exPM Milanovic is clearly ahead. The HDZ-incumbent seems to be second.
So better for Milanovic than most polls had indicated; yet, the third-placed candidate was mainly endorsed by the Conservatives&Nationalists (also by liberal MOST and a GREEN-party), so Mrs.GrabarK. should win in the RunOff (but narrowlier than thought).

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Croatian_presidential_election

Indeed, though he stood as an Independent, Škoro ((the third placed candidate) is a former member of parliament for HDZ.

[Georg Ebner]

Obvious is, that Milanovic has performed best in SDP's traditional StrongHolds.
More interesting is the OutCome on the (centre)right: The HDZ-woman won the touristy&wealthy areas along the coast in Dalmacia, while Slavonia went to the HardRighty.

[Georg Ebner]

A map is already ready:

upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c5/Predsjedni%C4%8Dki_izbori_u_Hrvatskoj_2019%2C_prvi_krug.svg/1280px-Predsjedni%C4%8Dki_izbori_u_Hrvatskoj_2019%2C_prvi_krug.svg.png

The folk-musician/comedian came also first in the StrongHolds of HSS (the PeasantParty, an EPP-member, but more aligned with SDP than HDZ) east of Zagreb. In western Slavonia HDZ is usually too strong to be overcome.

[Georg Ebner]

While i - but also austrian journalists, who are InSiders (some Croatian NewsPapers belong to "Styria", which is owned by the Catholic Church of Styria) - expected the HDZ-incumbent to be favoured for the RunOff, the few published OpinionPolls (collected at wikipedia) tell another story. Additionally Milanovic seems to have won a TeleVision-debate very clearly.

[Georg Ebner]

The link to the polls on wikipedia:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Croatian_presidential_election#Second_round_2

[nelson]

[Georg Ebner]

Here is the site of the ElectoralCommission:

www.izbori.hr/pre2019/rezultati/2/index.html

[Georg Ebner]

Quite a ComeBack for Milanovic, who was not exactly popular when leaving office.
He would apparently have been SDP's best man for PM-ship, though. Their present chief Barnardic seems to be too young&unexperienced for being a serious PM-contender later this year. Pernar's departure from ZZ should help SDP, too.

[nelson]

[Georg Ebner]

Waiting for EpiPhany i compared the county-results with last time:

The TurnOut fell everywhere, without a clear pattern.

The % of the HDZ-woman rose in eastern Slavonia, where the third candidate had done best (and as a result: where i didn't expect it at all), and fell everywhere else, the most in&around Zagreb (unsurprisingly, as the SDP-incumbent had performed quite badly there during the late days of the unpopular SDP-government under Milanovic).

Both combined - so her share of the total electorate - she lost most in ZagrebCity (-6.83%) and SplitCounty (-6.37%; obviously due to the incorporated city), the smallest losses happened in rural StrongHolds of SDP&allies (-1.x% in Istria and Medimurje), those between give us an unclear picture.

[Merseymike]

It's still quite a turnaround. Given that he only got 30% in the first round, the combined right wing vote should have indicated an HDZ win.

But it wasn't even that close.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Milanovic been most recently poncing around as an adviser to another dubious Balkan quasi-Leftie, Edi Rama of Albania.

[Georg Ebner]

Changes in the PresidentialElections 2015-2020 (left = TurnOut; mid = HDZ-% of ValidVotes; right = HDZ-% of Electorate):