Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2019 15:43:28 GMT
Not a poll exactly..
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
|
Post by cogload on Sept 12, 2019 18:41:46 GMT
Not a bad guide are bookies odds. I am sure there are individuals or syndicates who can access internal polling data and make large fortunes.
One reason why you can't get multiples in GE seats with some bookies.
Chris Rennard IIRC was particularly adept at cleaning up (allegedly).
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065 
Member is Online
|
Post by jamie on Sept 12, 2019 21:00:49 GMT
Controversial opinion - Bookies odds are sometimes hilariously (and obviously) wrong and even when they’re right I’m not sure they’re any better in the long run than any well informed and level headed person could be. Like, if you pay attention to polls and don’t interpret them in a biased manor, your probably going to be more accurate than the bookies.
|
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on Sept 12, 2019 22:10:57 GMT
Which of course is how some people can "clean up" at elections. But how would I know - I don't bet.
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,756
Member is Online
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 12, 2019 22:17:51 GMT
Controversial opinion - Bookies odds are sometimes hilariously (and obviously) wrong and even when they’re right I’m not sure they’re any better in the long run than any well informed and level headed person could be. Like, if you pay attention to polls and don’t interpret them in a biased manor, your probably going to be more accurate than the bookies. Remember that bookies are influenced by where the money is going, and a few large bets in one direction can cause a big shift in the odds. They don't do opinion polls before setting the odds. |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Sept 12, 2019 22:51:31 GMT
Controversial opinion - Bookies odds are sometimes hilariously (and obviously) wrong and even when they’re right I’m not sure they’re any better in the long run than any well informed and level headed person could be. Like, if you pay attention to polls and don’t interpret them in a biased manor, your probably going to be more accurate than the bookies. Indeed. I've always thought that betting on politics is probably the easiest way for a punter to make a profit from gambling. |
|
|
|
Post by lancastrian on Sept 12, 2019 23:15:21 GMT
Where does anyone think the Brexit Party are going to win anything? Given the national vote they'd presumably get if they were winning seats, it seems likely to be incompatible with the Tories being anywhere near 300 seats.
|
|
Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 28,241
Member is Online
|
Post by Andrew_S on Sept 12, 2019 23:16:06 GMT
Where does anyone think the Brexit Party are going to win anything? Given the national vote they'd presumably get it they did, it seems likely to be incompatible with the Tories being anywhere near 300 seats. The poll the other day had them winning Thurrock I think. |
|
hedgehog
Non-Aligned
Enter your message here...
Posts: 6,826
|
Post by hedgehog on Sept 16, 2019 15:27:07 GMT
Controversial opinion - Bookies odds are sometimes hilariously (and obviously) wrong and even when they’re right I’m not sure they’re any better in the long run than any well informed and level headed person could be. Like, if you pay attention to polls and don’t interpret them in a biased manor, your probably going to be more accurate than the bookies. Indeed. I've always thought that betting on politics is probably the easiest way for a punter to make a profit from gambling. I notice they are suggesting 2 green, seats, would that be IOW? |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Sept 16, 2019 17:17:07 GMT
Indeed. I've always thought that betting on politics is probably the easiest way for a punter to make a profit from gambling. I notice they are suggesting 2 green, seats, would that be IOW? Given the current political climate, I'd suspect Sheffield Central or Bristol West on a low vote share is more likely. IOW could fall, but probably only if there's serious vote splitting between the Tories and Brexit Party (I'd say the Brexit Party may have a decent shot too, since anti-establishment parties often do very well there). However, no specific seats are actually given in those predictions, so it's anyone's guess. |
|
|
|
Post by lennon on Sept 16, 2019 17:22:21 GMT
I notice they are suggesting 2 green, seats, would that be IOW? Given the current political climate, I'd suspect Sheffield Central or Bristol West on a low vote share is more likely. IOW could fall, but probably only if there's serious vote splitting between the Tories and Brexit Party (I'd say the Brexit Party may have a decent shot too, since anti-establishment parties often do very well there). However, no specific seats are actually given in those predictions, so it's anyone's guess. SportingIndex won't be thinking of specific seats. It will be based on a % basis I'm pretty sure. They'll have something like Brighton at 75% chance, Bristol, Sheffield, IOW as 25% chance of falling to the Greens + 10% chance in another 5 seats or similar - which gives an 'expected seats' at 2 - even though only 1 is a greater than 50% chance. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 17, 2019 10:20:35 GMT
That earlier figure for the SNP looks implausibly low. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2019 21:05:34 GMT
|
|
