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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 12, 2019 22:54:48 GMT
RUTLAND Ryhall and Casterton
COLEMAN, Richard Stephen (Conservative) 357
WRIGLEY-PHEASANT, Beverley Jane Helen (Liberal Democrat) 156
FAY, Steve (Green) 121
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 12, 2019 22:55:14 GMT
Not particularly. Labour hadn't been standing in this seat for many years. They got a reasonable vote in the by-election in 2018 as Northamptonshire local government came under the spotlight but the Lib Dems emerged then as the clear competitors to Tory dominance. The Lib Dems have now squeezed the Labour vote. The change in candidate may have had something to do with it as well. The people to be worried by this sort of result are the Tories as (a) they lost (b) the ability of LD and Lab to squeeze each other is a killer so long as the total votes of those two are well above the Tory total; as they are, nationally. Squeezing votes is a lot easier in a local by-election than in a General Election though, since most people take their cue from the national campaign, not the local tactical situation.. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 12, 2019 22:59:35 GMT
Lib Dem 687 54.7% Con 450 35.9% Lab 118 9.4% Changes Since May Lib Dem +16.5 Con +2.2 Lab -6.1 no British and Sovereignty candidate this time. Is this a Hole in One? I have no idea how autocorrect got golf from hold - although g and h are adjacent on the keyboard. My defence is I was getting wired up to my overnight oxygen whilst typing. Sorry. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 12, 2019 23:00:56 GMT
No apology needed - got a good laugh!
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Sept 12, 2019 23:01:24 GMT
Lib Dem 687 54.7% Con 450 35.9% Lab 118 9.4% Changes Since May Lib Dem +16.5 Con +2.2 Lab -6.1 no British and Sovereignty candidate this time. Is this a Hole in One? Well above par so far  |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 12, 2019 23:03:01 GMT
The people to be worried by this sort of result are the Tories as (a) they lost (b) the ability of LD and Lab to squeeze each other is a killer so long as the total votes of those two are well above the Tory total; as they are, nationally. Squeezing votes is a lot easier in a local by-election than in a General Election though, since most people take their cue from the national campaign, not the local tactical situation.. True. But a bit easier than it used to be. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 12, 2019 23:04:40 GMT
Squeezing votes is a lot easier in a local by-election than in a General Election though, since most people take their cue from the national campaign, not the local tactical situation.. True. But a bit easier than it used to be. Credibility helps with vote squeezing |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 12, 2019 23:14:02 GMT
So 3 LD wins out of 4 so far- pity we weren't able to get Ms Wrigley- Pheasant to win. I think I'd have wanted her to win regardless of party. Any news from Finedon?
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 12, 2019 23:24:41 GMT
If we win Wellingborough I'll dance naked on the sand at Bournemouth...
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 12, 2019 23:30:11 GMT
Perhaps we shouldn't hope too much for that one, then.
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Post by agbutler on Sept 12, 2019 23:30:42 GMT
Is Wellingborough definitely counting tonight?
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 12, 2019 23:40:23 GMT
Is Wellingborough definitely counting tonight? I can’t seem to find anything online, but as Andrew mentioned Rev Richard Coles in his Preview, this Tweet just caught my eye |
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 12, 2019 23:49:42 GMT
Is that the Mayoress's chain?
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 12, 2019 23:54:09 GMT
Is that the Mayoress's chain? Presumably it’s her mother; her dad was Mayor of Grantham IIRC? |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 13, 2019 1:11:36 GMT
Conservative hold in Wellingborough
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 13, 2019 3:30:09 GMT
Squeezing votes is a lot easier in a local by-election than in a General Election though, since most people take their cue from the national campaign, not the local tactical situation.. True. But a bit easier than it used to be. To my surprise its been more the predictions that got squeezed. Votes for Greens amount to 344 out of 2559 in the three wards they were present, a share of 13.44% versus 3.72% for my punt and 7.37% for the average of the other 11 predictions. They may have developed a new top-secret underground campa technique that doesn't get picked up by the search engines. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 13, 2019 5:41:57 GMT
True. But a bit easier than it used to be. To my surprise its been more the predictions that got squeezed. Votes for Greens amount to 344 out of 2559 in the three wards they were present, a share of 13.44% versus 3.72% for my punt and 7.37% for the average of the other 11 predictions. They may have developed a new top-secret underground campa technique that doesn't get picked up by the search engines. Well, they got a vote % similar to the EU election in Wellingborough, and similar to a lot of wards in Kirklees where they did no campaigning on May 2nd. Very disappointing for Labour in a constituency they won in 1997 and held in 2001. Also for the Lib Dems currently polling 18% and getting 15% in Wellingborough in the EU election. Presumably the Indy mopped up the ABT vote that did not go Green. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 13, 2019 5:45:09 GMT
Lib Dem 687 54.7% Con 450 35.9% Lab 118 9.4% Changes Since May Lib Dem +16.5 Con +2.2 Lab -6.1 no British and Sovereignty candidate this time. That's good, it looked like the most difficult one to hold for a while. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 13, 2019 5:59:30 GMT
His Lordship's dignity can remain intact, thank goodness
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 13, 2019 6:51:33 GMT
Headline figures. St Marks, Rushmoor: Liberal Democrat hold, with a 7.2% swing from the Conservatives since May, 8.3% since 2018, 15% since 2016 and 24.3% since 2015. Ryhall and Casterton, Rutland: Conservative gain from Independent, swing not meaningful as uncontested last time. Bishop's Castle, Shropshire: Liberal Democrat hold, with a 1.8% swing from them to the Conservatives since 2017, but a 10.3% swing to them since both the 2016 by-election and 2013. Middleton Cheney, South Northamptonshire: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative on a swing of 6.3%. Finedon, Wellingborough: Conservative hold, swing from Conservative to Independent if particularly meaningful (Independent didn't stand last time) is 14.9% (2016 b-e) and 15.9% (2015) respectively. Full results at the link below. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bqvfYXTUMZ3KjRsw2gxIJGxnxJDAqeCJnepNN9AoVFg/edit?usp=sharing |
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