Prediction Competition - August 2019

[iainbhx]

Meole (Salop UA): Con 44 LDm 26 Lab 22 Grn 8

[Toylyyev]

Shropshire UA, Meole: Conservative 45, Liberal Democrat 25, Labour 18, Green 12.

[yellowperil]

Shropshire, Meole: Con 44, Lab 20,LD 28, Green 8

[Robert Waller]

Shropshire UA, Meole: Conservative 48, Liberal Democrat 26, Labour 21, Green 5

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SHROPSHIRE Meole: C 48, Lab 21, L Dem 19, GP 12

[agbutler]

Shropshire Meole:
LDM: 41.5
Con: 40.2
Lab:11.1
Grn: 7.2

[Right Leaning]

Shropshire UA, Meole: C 47, LD 29, Lab 19, Gn 5

[andrewp]

Shropshire Meole Con 43, Lib Dem 33, Lab 18, Green 6

[olympian95]

Shropshire: Con 45, LD 25, Lab 23, Green 7

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, all present and correct. Mikefromsales makes a maiden appearance with yorkshireluke still missing.

Meole, Shropshire: 13 Conservative hold, with mikefromsales Lib Dem gain. Majorities amongst the 13 predicted holds from 5% (priceofdawn over Lib Dem) to 27% (David Boothroyd over Labour).

Spreadsheet available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jzJH2eQbSoiRjlV-m8y2AxatiOjCvh5g_OnNIHBxJck/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[agbutler]

Aug 14, 2019 23:38:33 GMT agbutler said:

Shropshire Meole:
LDM: 41.5
Con: 40.2
Lab:11.1
Grn: 7.2

I'm just gonna go back to lurking oops.

[yellowperil]

Aug 15, 2019 23:02:17 GMT agbutler said:

Aug 14, 2019 23:38:33 GMT agbutler said:

Shropshire Meole:
LDM: 41.5
Con: 40.2
Lab:11.1
Grn: 7.2

I'm just gonna go back to lurking oops.

I hope you won't  but will keep trying. That was a bold brave forecast, which made a number of us look again at the evidence, and if you keep going with that sort of forecast some time it's going to come off and us more cautious types will miss out. I suspect this was a ward of two halves, and as has been  suggested the Tories might have lost both halves, one to the Lib Dems and one to Labour, but hung on when the two halves were merged. Maybe you only saw the Con v Lib Dem contest?

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Rugby BC - Rokeby and Overslade.

Liberal Democrats - 52%
Conservative - 16.1%
Labour - 16%
Brexit - 9.9%
Green - 6%

[Tony Otim]

Rugby: LD 64.4; Con 14.8; Lab 10.2; Brx 6.0; Grn 4.6

[greenhert]

Rugby BC, Rokeby & Overslade:

Liberal Democrats 60, Conservative 15, Labour 13, Brexit 7, Green 5.

[yellowperil]

Rugby, Rokeby & Overslade: Con 16, Lab 10, LD 62, Green 7, BxP 5.

[iainbhx]

Rokeby & Overslade (Rugby BC): LDm 58 Con 16 Lab 12 BXP 8 Grn 6

[Toylyyev]

Rugby BC, Rokeby & Overslade: Liberal Democrat 57, Labour 15, Conservative 14, Brexiter 10, Green 4.

[andrewp]

Rugby, Rokeby and Overslade Lib Dem 57, Con 14, Labour 13, Brexit 12, Green 4

[Robert Waller]

Rugby, Rokeby and Overslade Lib Dem 60, Con 16, Labour 14, Brexit 6, Green 4