Prediction Competition - August 2019

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 9 by-elections during August:
- 2 on 1st August
- 3 on 8th
- 1 on 15th
- 1 on 22nd
- 2 on 29th

5 of the by-elections are for District Councils, one elected in May, two where the last election was in May, one where the last election was in 2018 and another where the last election was in 2016
1 is in a Unitary Authority, last elected in 2017
1 is for a Scottish authority last elected in 2017 and
2 are for Metropolitan Boroughs where the last election was in May

Conservatives defend 3 seats, one following the death of the previous Councillor and two a resignation with one sitting as Labour
Labour defend 1 following a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 4 seats, all following resignations
SNP defend 1 seat following a death of the previous Councillor who was sitting as an Independent

With all seats bar one having declared nominations:
Conservatives have 8 candidates, Labour and Liberal Democrats have 7 each, Greens have 6, UKIP, Brexit Party and Libertarian Party have 1 apiece along with 1 Independent contesting 1 seat
- a total of 32 candidates for 8 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election - johnloony you don't need to repost, I've got yours from the other thread.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

HUNTINGDONSHIRE Godmanchester and Hemingford Abbots: L Dem 55, C 29, Ind 16
STOCKPORT Hazel Grove: L Dem 57, C 27, GP 11, Lab 5

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

OK I'll give this a punt with absolutely no knowledge of either area.

Huntingdonshire
Liberal Democrats 51
Conservatives 30
Independent 19

Stockport
Liberal Democrats 49
Conservatives 39
Labour 6
Greens 6

[Tony Otim]

Huntingdonshire: LD 57.2; Con 24.6; Ind 18.2
Stockport: LD 52.9; Con 31.3; Lab 10.2; Grn 5.6

[Toylyyev]

Huntingdonshire DC, Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots: Liberal Democrat 58, Conservative 24, Independent 18.
Stockport MB, Hazel Grove: Liberal Democrat 59, Conservative 31, Labour 6, Green 4.

[greenhert]

Huntingdonshire DC, Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots: Liberal Democrats 55, Conservative 25, Independent (Pauley) 20.
Stockport MBC, Hazel Grove: Liberal Democrats 57, Conservative 30, Labour 8, Green 5.

[yellowperil]

Huntingdonshire, Godmanchester& Hemingford Abbots: Con 31, LD 52, Ind 7
Stockport, Hazel Grove: Con 30, Lab 6, LD 56, Green 8

[Robert Waller]

Huntingdonshire, Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots: Con 31, LD 57, Ind 12
Stockport, Hazel Grove: Con 34, Lab 8, LD 54, Green 4

[yorkshireluke]

Huntingdonshire: LD 56, Con 24, Ind 20.

Stockport: LD 48, Con 34, Lab 10, Grn 8.

[andrewp]

Huntingdonshire, Godmanchester and Hemingford Abbotts Lib Dem 55, Con 30, Ind Pauley 15
Stockport, Hazel Grove Lib Dem 54, Con 32, Lab 8, Green 6

[iainbhx]

Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbotts (Huntingdon DC): LDm 51 Con 31 Ind 18
Hazel Grove (Stockport MBC): LDm 54 Con 30 Lab 10 Grn 6

[Right Leaning]

Huntingdonshire, Godmanchester and Hemingford Abbotts LD 57, C 28, Ind 15
Stockport, Hazel Grove LD 57, C 30, Lab 8, Gn 5

[Deleted]

Huntingdonshire, Godmanchester and Hemingford Abbotts LD 60, C 30, Ind 10
Stockport, Hazel Grove LD 60, C 35, Lab 4, Gn 56

[olympian95]

Huntingdon - LD 51, Con 32, Ind 17

Stockport: LD 55, Con 34, Lab 7, Green 4

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week with alien8ted making a maiden appearance. All on time, yellowperil gets 10 additional faults for only adding to 90% in Huntingdonshire whilst priceofdawn gets 55 faults for adding to 155% in Stockport.

Godmanchester and Hemingford Abbots, Huntingdonshire: 100% LD hold, with majority ranging from 20% (iainbhx) to 34% (Toylyyev).
Hazel Grove, Stockport: 100% LD hold, with majority ranging from 4% over Green (priceofdawn) to 32% over Conservative (johnloony).

Spreadsheet is available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jUfU87bWYTVDcZu8lfG20aW_fMxEw-jTwx_02ZtnFuU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!
 

[yellowperil]

Aug 1, 2019 22:58:50 GMT robbienicoll said:

14 entries this week with alien8ted making a maiden appearance. All on time, yellowperil gets 10 additional faults for only adding to 90% in Huntingdonshire whilst priceofdawn gets 55 faults for adding to 155% in Stockport.

Godmanchester and Hemingford Abbots, Huntingdonshire: 100% LD hold, with majority ranging from 20% (iainbhx) to 34% (Toylyyev).
Hazel Grove, Stockport: 100% LD hold, with majority ranging from 4% over Green (priceofdawn) to 32% over Conservative (johnloony).

Spreadsheet is available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jUfU87bWYTVDcZu8lfG20aW_fMxEw-jTwx_02ZtnFuU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!
 

oops ,yes the Huntingdonshire Indy should have read 17 and I didn't spot the fact that one digit hadn't printed. 

[Robert Waller]

Very well done to alien8ted for winning the week on their debut appearance!

[yellowperil]

I am so cross with myself that I didn't notice the "1" hadn't printed on my intended 17 for the Indy in Godmanchester, not least when he actually got 17! A double penalty of course: 10 faults for not predicting 17 and then 10 penalty points for not adding up to 100. Without that I wouldn't have been brilliant but at least respectable. But them's the rules.

[Tony Otim]

Cambridge: LD 54.5; Lab 23.7; Grn 11.6; Con 10.2
East Nothants: Con 52.9; Lab 47.1
Worcester: Con 45.5; LD 41.8; Grn 8.1; Lab 4.6

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

This is where I prove last week was a fluke 😀

Cambridge Newnham
Liberal Democrats 50.1
Labour 19.9
Conservatives 15.2
Greens 14.8

East Northamptonshire Irthlingborough Waterloo
Conservative 57
Labour 43

Worcester Claines
Conservatives 46.6
Liberal Democrats 44.8
Greens 5.2
Labour 3.4