some random exit polls/election day polls for other ballots

[nodealbrexiteer]

1992:BBC-after 2 results-11.18pm from Con short by 3 to Lab short by 18(presumably 308/293 assuming at this stage margin of error was plus/minus 15 seats still on the 2 main parties-the confidence interval would narrow later of course)-central forecast Con short by 18,after Basildon 309/292/22/28(range of forecast Con short by 2 to Lab short by 19)-4 results approx 11.45pm,approaching 00:30 Con short by 14,after 45 results Con short by 12(range Con maj of 7 to Lab short by 23),00:42 approx Con short by 11(range Con maj of 9 to Lab short by 25),after 201 results at 01:24 Con short by 4(range Con short by 17 to Con maj of 19 so plus or minus 13 seats now),01:49(332 results) Con maj of 5,about five to two-Con maj of 1!(362 results),after 418 results a little after five past two Con maj of 3,same maj forecast after 437 results,after 523 results 02:40ish Con maj of 9(Hung parliament still possible),after 532 results Con maj of 13 then moments later Con 331, Lab 274,Lib Dem 20,Others 26-Con maj of 11,then moments later back to Con maj of 13!(range Con maj of to Con maj of 23 plus/minus 5 seats),just after five to thre share forecast for Great Britain of 42/36/18/4,just after Con maj of 11 on board behind Dimbleby,after 595 results Con maj of 15-333/274/20/24,03:32 after 597 results Con maj of 17,after 611 results back to Con maj of 15,after 612 results back to Con maj 17,early in morning programme national shares given as 43/36/18/3,Con maj still 17,Con maj of 19 after 627 results,(after 629 COn reach 326 needed for win),after 634 1pm 10th April 1992 still maj of 19,national share 43/35/18/4,after 640 result Con maj of 21(all 3 main parties on their final totals by now),(seats under PR 279/229/119),

(youtube copy gone so this information is from Getty images clips and I will add more should I find more in the future)ITN-somewhere between 1am and 2am Con 324,Lab 277, Lib Dem 24, Others 26,also 329/272/24/26,then between 2am and 3am Con 333,Lab 272,Lib Dem 21,Others 25.

I also once saw on the old TV Ark a Sky News forecast which overestimated Con on 342(33 majority) and Lab on 268 ish but it's not on the new Tv Ark

[nodealbrexiteer]

2001(BBC to follow at some future date due to adoption of rolling forecast from 00:20ish):

ITN after 63 results forecast Lab majority of 193, shortly after 189-Lab 424, Con 143, Lib Dem 62(1.00am), Others 30,changing back to 191 overall majority after 1am.416/152/62/29.Then later on Lab 414,Con 153, Lib Dem 63,Other29,then 413/153/64/29.03:04 Lab maj 163(476 in),03:59 Lab maj 163(568 in)411/167/53/28.1.7% swing 163 maj then 411/169/51/28,05:53 167 maj-631 in(413/162/46/10) net gains/losses correct(06:08 state of parties 412/160/46/10,06:22 412/161/46/10),(07:29 state of parties 413/164/47/10), then spot on 413/166/52/28,(state of parties approx 12.30pm 413/164/48/10),few minutes later 413/165/53/28,same at 2.35pm approx,

Sky News Lab 414 Con 153, Lib Dem 62 just after Lab reached winning post(only available Sky News projection unless video or images turn up)

[nodealbrexiteer]

2005:BBC at about 1.45am/1.50 Lab 357, Con 201, Lib Dem 59,(then 29 Con gains,Lib Dem 10,2 SNP,1 independent-Lab maj of 76)(upped to a Lab majority of 76 after 2am then 80)after 290 results Lab maj of 72,just before 3am 359/199/59/29,moments later 358/201/58/29,share 37/33/22/8, about 03:55 projected share 36/33/23/8(36.2% to be exact),same at point Lab maj reached, forecast maj of 66,05:05 Lib Dems predicted to be up 11 overall(though Anthony King quoted a projected 61),05:50 approx 357/197/62/30 moment later 356/197/63/30,share forecast 36/33/23/8

ITN after 2am shifted to Lab overall majority of 82-3% Lab to Con swing(after 200 results plus-still 82 at 2.36am),03:30approx 361/195/59/31,Lab maj of 68 around 5am-357/196/61.5.30am approx 358/195/61/32.(last part of youtube videos gives share 36.2/33.3/22.5/7.9),with forecast of 354/198/62/32,(may at one point have been forecast of Lab maj of 64).

Sky news after 101-103 results about 1.35am Lab overall majority of 80-Lab 363, Con 186, Lib Dem 66-later cut to Lab maj of 72(3.48am Con 199) then 70(5.20am).

[nodealbrexiteer]

2010:BBC after 5am(just before 5.20am?) Con 306,Lab 262,Lib Dem 55,Other 27,then 308/260/53/29 with share forecast 37/30/23/10(GB),307/261/54/Others 28-8 DUP,6 SNP,4 Sinn Fein,3 Plaid Cymru,3 SDLP,1 Green,2 Others,-end of youtube video(will post any more I find at a later point)

ITN was on Youtube,not on now so will post any figures should they turn up

Sky news:06:00-309/259/54/28.More figures to be posted if they come to light in the future.

[nodealbrexiteer]

2015:BBC roughly same time as ITN Con 325,Lab 232,SNP 56, Lib Dem 12,Plaid 3,UKIP 2,Green 1,Other 11,few minutes after 7am 329/233/56/8 Lib Dems/2 UKIP/Plaid 3/Green 1/Others 18,then at 08:18 328/235/56/8,09:10 Con 329.10:21 Lab forecast at 234,11:35 Lib Dem forecast at 8,then 331/232/56/8/plaid 3 Green 1 UKIP 1,Others 18,.

ITN early morning approaching 6am Con 327/ Lab 233/Lib Dem 10/UKIP 1/Green 1/SNP 56/Other 22(based on overnight results Youtube video-no others available at present).

Sky News 07:49 Con 326,Lab 235,Lib Dem 8, SNP 56,UKIP 2-after 594 results-nothing else available at present.

[nodealbrexiteer]

2017:BBC 02:15 Con 322, Lab 261,SNP 32, Lib Dem 13,then 03:26 318/267/32/11 plus Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1,Other 18 by 04:57 316/265/34/13,by 05:02 318/262/35/13(same at 05:59),rest broken down as Plaid 3,DUP 10, Sinn Fein 7, 1 Independent, 1 Green,06:09 319/260/35/14,06:14 318/261/35/13,06:36 319/260/35/14,06:41 318/261/35/13,(643 out of 650 declared-Maitlis compares exit poll changes in those seat vs real results(06:50) Con +4,Lab +11,Lib Dem 0,Green -3,UKIP -11,SNP-11, actual Con +6,Lab +10,Lib Dem -1,Green -2,UKIP -11,SNP -13).07:19 319/261/35/12,

ITN 02:38 Con 322, Lab 265, Lib Dem 10,UKIP 0,SNP 31,Other 22,(3 Plaid,1 Green,8 DUP,5 Sinn Fein,2 UUP,3 Others),then 320/261/16/0/31/22,at nearly 04:20-319/260/14/0/35/22-same at 05:51 and 05:59(no more videos).

Sky News: first update Con 308-328,

[nodealbrexiteer]

2019:BBC 03:03 Con 357, Lab 201, SNP 55,Lib Dem 13, Plaid Cymru 4,Green 1, Brexit 0,03:41 365/196/52/13,04:10 362/199/52/13,05:10 364/201/49/13,just after 363/203/49/12(05:18 plus Plaid 4, Green 1),05:31 364/203/49/11,06:00 365/203/48/11/4 Plaid 1 Green,06:09 364/203/48/12(Plaid 4,Green 1,Other 18)-still this at 07:30 approx with 2 to declare,08:38 Con 364,Lab 203,Lib dem 11,SNP 48,DUP 8,Sinn Fein 7,Green 1,Plaid 4,sdlp 2,APNI 1,

ITN around 01:05am approx(exit poll plus) Con 367,Lab 192,Lib Dem 13, Brexit 0, SNP 55, Others 23(including plaid 3, Green 1,19 others),then 366/193/13/0/55/23,a little after 2am back to 367/192/13/0/55/23,circa 02:10-back to 366/193/13/0/55/23,then 365/194/13/0/55/23,02:35 approx 364/194/14/0/55/23,02:45 approx 365/193-rest same as 02:35,about five to three 364/193/14/0/56/23,just before 3am 363/194/14/0/56/23,on 3am ish back to 364/193(rest same as last forecast),approx 03:05 366/192/13/0/56/23,5 minutes later 365/193/rest same as last forecast.About 3:15am 366/192/13/0/56/23,03:30 approx 366/193/12/0/55/24,03:35 ish 365/194/12/0/55/24,3 minutes later 365/194/13/0/54/24,abour 03:45 364/195/13/0/54/24,minute or so later 363/196-others same as last forecast.03:50 approx 364/195/13/0/54/24,03:55 approx 365/196/12/0/53/24,couple of minutes later 364/197/rest same as last forecast.Shortly after 363/197/13/0/53/24.04:00 362/198/13/0/53/24.Just after 04:05 361/198/14/0/53 with 1 Green,4 Plaid Cymru,19 Others.04:10 approx 361/199/13/0/53/24,04:13 approx 360/200/13/0/53/24,moments later 359/201/others same as last forecast,nearly 04:30 361/199/13/0/53/24,minute or so later 362/199/12/0/53/24,minute or two after 361/200/12/0/53/24,360/201-rest same as previous forecast. About 04:35 359/202/12/0/53/24,04:40 360/201/rest same as last forecast.04:47(just after discussion of exit poll share deviations from actual results)-359/203/12/0/53/1 Green/22 Others.(after 595 results Con reach winning 326),circa 05:10 360/204/13/0/50/23.05:15 approx 361/204/13/0/49/23,05:20ish 362/204/11/0/50/23,at 05:30 Con maj 74-362/204/12/0/49/1 Green/22 Other,364/203/12/0/48/23-end of overnight coverage forecast after 641 results in.

Sky News 03:09 after 244 results Con 358-368,Lab 192-202,04:05 Con 363-369,Lab 193-199,05:38 Con 364-366(78-82 majority)-end of available videos.

[nodealbrexiteer]

1997:BBC after 8 results(first on air forecast)-Lab 415, Con 176, Lib Dem 41,Others 27-Lab maj 171(compared to uniform swing model for those seats of 379/227/25/28-Lab maj 99),then after 23 results Lab maj 193(share 45/31/17/7),shortly after 431/151/49/28-Lab maj 203!,back down to 191 maj,then 415/157/59/28,then Con implicit 153,and single figure of 54 Lib Dem,after 175 results Lab maj of 167(share 44/31/18/7),then 417/161/53/28,Con share forecast 32.1%,end of an era graphic said Lab maj 187,after 505 result approx 3.50am 187 Lab maj after 506 results,then 423/163/44/29,then 421/164/45/29,after 624 results Lab maj 179 approx 5.50am.(After 629 results state of parties 417(145)/160(-174)/41(25)/Nats 10/Others 1(4))(running share 45/31/17/7(forecast same shares during one o clock news later)-contrasted to notional 1992 result of Con 343,Lb 273,Lib Dem 18,Other 25),forecast 419/166/45/29.after lunchtime news 419/165/46/29,share 45/31/17/7.

ITN initial revision Lab 410,Con 177, Lib Dem 44, Other 28(Lab maj 161) then at 01:23am back to 159 majority,01:39 161 again,after 239 results Lab maj of 177-418/156/57/28 after 310 results Lab maj of 179-419/155/56/29,then 419/160/50/30,after 487 results 422/164/44/29,after 519 results 422/163/45/29,04:42 Lab maj 179 then 418/166/46/29,(06:05 state of parties 413/147/40/6 Snp/4 PC 1 other),10:04-Lab maj of 179, state of parties 417/160/41/11(629 results in),share of the vote 45/31/17/7(+9.2/-11.4/-1.2/+3.3),forecast 419/166/45/29,(just after 11:00am share of vote running 44.7/31/17/7.1),12:39 predicted Lab maj of 179,same at 13:59 and 14:38,15:17,share 45/31/17/7,just after 15:30 419/166/45/29-last forecast.

Sky News-after 1 result at 10:55pm Lab maj of 180+

[nodealbrexiteer]

May 31, 2021 10:44:06 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

2017:BBC 02:15 Con 322, Lab 261,SNP 32, Lib Dem 13,then 03:26 318/267/32/11 plus Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1,Other 18 by 04:57 316/265/34/13,by 05:02 318/262/35/13(same at 05:59),rest broken down as Plaid 3,DUP 10, Sinn Fein 7, 1 Independent, 1 Green,06:09 319/260/35/14,06:14 318/261/35/13,06:36 319/260/35/14,06:41 318/261/35/13,(643 out of 650 declared-Maitlis compares exit poll changes in those seat vs real results(06:50) Con +4,Lab +11,Lib Dem 0,Green -3,UKIP -11,SNP-11, actual Con +6,Lab +10,Lib Dem -1,Green -2,UKIP -11,SNP -13).07:19 319/261/35/12,

ITN 02:38 Con 322, Lab 265, Lib Dem 10,UKIP 0,SNP 31,Other 22,(3 Plaid,1 Green,8 DUP,5 Sinn Fein,2 UUP,3 Others),then 320/261/16/0/31/22,at nearly 04:20-319/260/14/0/35/22-same at 05:51 and 05:59(no more videos).

Sky News: first update Con 308-328,

Bumped up as new information came to light re Sky:

Sky News: first update Con 308-328,after 184 results at 02:37,after 473 results 03:57 Con 315-325(hung parliament),04:56 after 601 results Con 315-321,Lab 260-266,

[nodealbrexiteer]

I today received some disappointing news from the BBC regarding a freedom of information request on the early missing exit poll data i alluded to on other threads and this one-the data if it exists is not something they are obliged to give out so won't give it out-something to do with exemptions under the Act for artistic and journalistic matters-I may yet query why as it's hardly state secrets!

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 29, 2021 21:47:23 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

I today received some disappointing news from the BBC regarding a freedom of information request on the early missing exit poll data i alluded to on other threads and this one-the data if it exists is not something they are obliged to give out so won't give it out-something to do with exemptions under the Act for artistic and journalistic matters-I may yet query why as it's hardly state secrets!

A special thanks to hullenedge for his encouragement in me making the request in the first place

[nodealbrexiteer]

pdfslide.net/reader/f/the-polls-have-a-lot-to-answer-for

pages 370-373 more details of the 3 1992 exit polls,p373 NOP marginals exit poll like the other exit polls showed declining Labour share through the day-5.30pm 41%,below 40% by 7.30pm,38.7% by close of polls(10pm marginals exit poll figures(real figure in brackets) Con 42.6%(45),Lab 38.6%(37),Lib Dem 16.2%(16),Other 2.1%(2))

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 6, 2021 19:18:51 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

pdfslide.net/reader/f/the-polls-have-a-lot-to-answer-for

pages 370-373 more details of the 3 1992 exit polls,p373 NOP marginals exit poll like the other exit polls showed declining Labour share through the day-5.30pm 41%,below 40% by 7.30pm,38.7% by close of polls(10pm marginals exit poll figures(real figure in brackets) Con 42.6%(45),Lab 38.6%(37),Lib Dem 16.2%(16),Other 2.1%(2))

Is there any possibility to download&save this (as PDF/...)?

[nodealbrexiteer]

May 26, 2021 12:02:14 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Oct 1974:BBC after 2 results Lab 332, Con 261, Lib 14, Other 28(not referred to on air at 23:23),an interview with Ron Hayward then refers to a Lab maj of 33,after 16 results 333/263/10/29,then after 20 results 329/267/10/29,after 52/53 results 325/271/10/29,then 324/272/9/30,after 361 results 325/272/10/28,then 322/275/11/27,at 02:56 321/276/11/27,then 321/275/11/28(lab figure not on screen),after 489 results 321/276/11/27(end of overnight coverage-03:59 approx),after 493 results 322/276/11/26,10:19 am 321/276/11/27,after 495 results 320/276/12/27,after 496 results 320/275/13/27,after 497 results 320/276/12/27 ,after 542 results 320/276/12/27(McKenzie commented the majority will be 1,3 or 5),after Bosworth stayed in Con hands the Lab maj was forecast as 3(presumably 319/277).

ITN(possibly 1.45am)-Lab 328, Con 267, Lib 11,Others 29

Bumped up as I have kindly been given more information on the progress of the ITN forecast of the Lab overall majority been 00:13 and 03:30-the figures fluctuated like this 21,15,19,23,13,15,11,9,7,5

[nodealbrexiteer]

I posted a link before to the Harris exit polls amsr article before but thought I'd post it with the figures viewable upfront(with thanks to hullenedge):

ITN/Harris exit polls 1983-1992:

Vote share patterns throughout 9th April 1992 at 8 cut off points(first figure is cumulative sample at that cut off rest are vote shares for these parties-Con/Lab/Lib Dem/Others)-some add up to 99% or 101% due to rounding:

313-45/33/19/3
956-43/37/17/3
1544-42/38/17/4
2022-41/39/17/4
2683-40/38/17/4
3540-41/37/18/4
4242-41/37/18/4
4701-41.1/36.3/18.0/4.5(quoted as 4.6 in some places)

Actual 42.8/35.2/18.3/3.7

Same for 11th June 1987 at 9 cut off points:

377-47/26/25/2
935-46/29/23/2
1459-44/31/23/2
1986-43/32/23/2
2604-42/33/23/2
3452-42/33/23/3
4039-42/33/23/3
4384-42/32/23/3
4589-41.8/32.0/23.4/2.8

Actual 43.3/31.5/23.1/2.1

Same for 9th June 1983 at 6 cut off points(no figures for cumulative sample sizes at each point available):

50.5/24.9/21.4/3.3
47.5/27.7/22.2/2.6
44.6/28.8/23.7/2.8
43.3/29.6/24.1/3.1
42.1/29.8/25.2/2.8
42.1/28.9/26.0/3.0

actual 43.5/28.3/26.0/2.2

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

What timescale before the election are these poll figures for?

[nodealbrexiteer]

Sept 11, 2021 19:38:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

What timescale before the election are these poll figures for?

Sorry to clarify these are how the itn 1983,1987,1992 exit poll vote share figures changed for the parties as polling day advanced

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Sept 11, 2021 19:48:14 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Sept 11, 2021 19:38:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

What timescale before the election are these poll figures for?

Sorry to clarify these are how the itn 1983,1987,1992 exit poll vote share figures changed for the parties as polling day advanced

Sorry bad question. 

Are they in the week  before each polling day or 5 days or fewer etc. 

Thanks

[johnloony]

Sept 11, 2021 19:50:04 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Sept 11, 2021 19:48:14 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Sorry to clarify these are how the itn 1983,1987,1992 exit poll vote share figures changed for the parties as polling day advanced

Sorry bad question. 

Are they in the week  before each polling day or 5 days or fewer etc. 

Either: it is clear that they are all on polling day itself
Or: I have completely misread and misunderstood what the thread of posts says

[nodealbrexiteer]

Sept 11, 2021 19:50:04 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Sept 11, 2021 19:48:14 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Sorry to clarify these are how the itn 1983,1987,1992 exit poll vote share figures changed for the parties as polling day advanced

Sorry bad question. 

Are they in the week  before each polling day or 5 days or fewer etc. 

Thanks

What johnloony said-they are from polling day itself,if you like the rolling results from the exit poll vote shares as polling day progressed.