some random exit polls/election day polls for other ballots

[nodealbrexiteer]

www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/mori-most-accurate-results-london-mayoral-election

ITN/MORI 2004 London Mayor on the day poll

[nodealbrexiteer]

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/uk_politics/2000/london_mayor/735186.stm

London Mayor 2000 and London Assembly election

[nodealbrexiteer]

Having emailed Professor Roger Mortimore on the subject of selecting polling stations for any General Election exit poll in December (if it happens) he pointed out extra challenges about revisiting some of the 144 used last time like local government boundary changes and the possibility of polling stations being moved from where they would have been due to December polling. He hopes to maintain the previous accuracy but it sounds like there could be extra headaches to contend with

[Andrew_S]

Oct 29, 2019 14:46:26 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Having emailed Professor Roger Mortimore on the subject of selecting polling stations for any General Election exit poll in December (if it happens) he pointed out extra challenges about revisiting some of the 144 used last time like local government boundary changes and the possibility of polling stations being moved from where they would have been due to December polling. He hopes to maintain the previous accuracy but it sounds like there could be extra headaches to contend with

A very interesting subject, the way in which the exit poll is conducted.

[nodealbrexiteer]

I hope to be writing an updated bit on the 2019 exit poll.

Strangely the nights when things went awry make for the more interesting reading!

[nodealbrexiteer]

www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2017-11/ipsos-mori-almanac-2017.pdf

Interesting insight into the 2017 exit in terms of the actual fieldwork-IPSOS MORI conducted 14142 of the interviews and GFK NOP 12130

[Andrew_S]

Reminder of the 2017 exit poll:

Con 314
Lab 266
SNP 34
LD 14
PC 3
Grn 1
UKIP 0
Oth 18

Every party's forecast was within 4 seats of the result.

Con: won 4 seats more than the Exit Poll forecast
Lab: 4 seats fewer
SNP: 1 seat more
LD: 2 seats fewer
PC: 1 seat more

[Andrew_S]

The impressive thing about the exit poll is that in 2017 for instance it was able to produce such an accurate result by interviewing an average of about 47 voters per constituency. 30,450 voters were interviewed in total at 144 polling stations.

[msc]

Nov 8, 2019 18:55:23 GMT Andrew_S said:

The impressive thing about the exit poll is that in 2017 for instance it was able to produce such an accurate result by interviewing an average of about 47 voters per constituency. 30,450 voters were interviewed in total at 144 polling stations.

What's also impressive is that a few days before, Sir John was privately telling folk to not be surprised if the exit poll turned out inaccurate this time around as there was so many potential vagaries and likely 50/50 calls in so many seats. He even referenced the latter on TV on the night in the case of the SNP seats.

When in actual fact, despite all those issues being present, it was the most accurate exit poll to date!

[nodealbrexiteer]

Nov 8, 2019 19:15:00 GMT msc said:

Nov 8, 2019 18:55:23 GMT Andrew_S said:

The impressive thing about the exit poll is that in 2017 for instance it was able to produce such an accurate result by interviewing an average of about 47 voters per constituency. 30,450 voters were interviewed in total at 144 polling stations.

What's also impressive is that a few days before, Sir John was privately telling folk to not be surprised if the exit poll turned out inaccurate this time around as there was so many potential vagaries and likely 50/50 calls in so many seats. He even referenced the latter on TV on the night in the case of the SNP seats.

When in actual fact, despite all those issues being present, it was the most accurate exit poll to date!

I wonder if the 2010 one could get the most accurate exit poll award? 307 Con, Lab 255, Lib Dem 59,Others 29(actual 307/258/57/28).Or the 1983 BBC forecast(admittedly based on a large sample opinion poll rather than exit poll) 398 Con, Lab 208, Alliance 21 Others 23(actual 397/209/23/21). I think we can safely award worst to BBC October 1974

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The 2005 exit poll was spot on for Labour and therefore the Labour majority. A bit out for Conservative and Lib Dems.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Nov 8, 2019 21:36:56 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The 2005 exit poll was spot on for Labour and therefore the Labour majority. A bit out for Conservative and Lib Dems.

Indeed. 11 over for Con, 9 under for Lib Dems. It's difficult to say how can you could fairly say which is most accurate-should it be the average seat error across Con,Lab,Lib Dem and others or the winner's majority error? The exit polls started to get very close to the latter from 2001 though 1997 was a significant improvement on the 1992 debacle.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Updated information on 1983 Harris exit poll for ITN:As TV Ark is back online there is a graphic showing that the forecast 17 Alliance seats split as 14 Liberal(minus 3) and 3 SDP(minus 3) and refers to the poll being taken in 112 places. Another graphic also confirms the initial vote share forecasts was Con 42%, Lab 28%, Alliance 26%

[hullenedge]

The 1992 ITN clip (a very brief shot of a fellow poster):-

tvark.org/?page=media&mediaid=116626

[nodealbrexiteer]

Feb 6, 2020 20:36:12 GMT hullenedge said:

The 1992 ITN clip (a very brief shot of a fellow poster):-

tvark.org/?page=media&mediaid=116626

thank you! I remember seeing that clip before. on a national uniform swing those share figures would have given the Tories a bare majority but the poll did pick up the higher swing in the marginals

[nodealbrexiteer]

Another slight amendment to the 1992 ITN exit poll information-it should read 16164 for the Harris marginal projection poll not 16141

ITN:
Their analysis poll comprised according to the Political Communications book of 4700 voters in 50 nationally representative seats(4701 according to the Worcester article) and 16500 in the marginals prediction poll(16141 according to Worcester).

Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/2710/interesting-electoral-facts?page=101#ixzz6DdOEoqhv

[nodealbrexiteer]

AN EMAIL I RECEIVED FROM PROFESSOR ROGER MORTIMORE ON THE MORI 2001 EXIT POLL(I ASKED HIM IF THE SEAT FORECASTS AT VARIOUS POINTS IN THE DAY WERE AVAILABLE AS IN THE 1997 POLL AND HOW THE MORI SWINGO MODEL WAS USED TO MAKE THE SEAT PROJECTIONS):



I’m afraid the projections throughout the day in the 2001 exit poll were never published so far as I know.

You are quite right that national uniform swing is a fairly poor predictor of the number of seats won these days, and for that reason we have never used it in our exit polls. However, uniform swing across smaller groups of similar constituencies is a much better predictor, and in one form or another is the basis of all seat-projection exit polls in electoral systems that do not use proportional representation (although strictly speaking what we use is not swing but change in the parties’ shares of the votes, since there may be more than two parties whose vote shares are relevant). In the case of our 2001 poll, our polling was entirely restricted to marginal constituencies – much of the reason why national uniform swing fails as a predictor is that the swing can be different in safe seats and marginal seats, and of course it is only the swing in marginal seats that matters since the safe seats are won by the same party regardless. Within the marginal seats, we distinguished between Conservative/Labour marginal and Conservative/LibDem marginals, and we measured the swing in each set separately – by using the poll to estimate the swing in Con-Lab marginals and applying that swing uniformly across all those constituencies we got a pretty accurate projection of the number of those seats that would change hands.

In fact we had the capacity to make the model more complex – for example, if the data had suggested that a particular region was swinging differently from the rest of the country, we could have applied a different swing in those constituencies which might have changed the seat projection. (Professor Colin Rallings, who was ITN’s academic consultant, was in overall charge of making the final projection from our polling data and had to make the decision whether to apply any differential swings or not.)

As you may know, for the last two general elections we have combined with Gfk-NOP to conduct a single exit poll which is used by both BBC and ITV (and Sky in 2010), and the academic team that makes the projections from the data is now led by Professor John Curtice. They use more complicated statistical methods to help them analyse the data as it comes in, and they use a more sophisticated “probabilistic” method rather than simple uniform swing, which in effect allows for small random variations in swing within a broadly uniform pattern. But in fact the essence of the method is still the same – different uniform swings applied to several different groups of marginal seats, and the final decision made during election day which groups to treat separately and which to combine. In 2010, for example, they used different figures for the swing in England from the swing they used in Scotland and Wales.

I hope that helps.

[Andrew_S]

I'm trying to find my VHS video tapes of Sky's 1992 and 1997 election night shows to see what their exit poll was predicting.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Feb 20, 2020 20:54:48 GMT Andrew_S said:

I'm trying to find my VHS video tapes of Sky's 1992 and 1997 election night shows to see what their exit poll was predicting.

And hopefully 2001 too! in 1997 as I said elsewhere they allegedly started with a Labour majority of 175 according to the Nuffield study splitting the difference between the ITN and BBC polls. The new TV Ark shows a photo after 1 result at 10.55pm saying Sky forecast Labour majority 180+. In 1992 I think they highlighted The Sun/ICM exit poll which may be why the misconception that they sponsored it too occurred. 

[AdminSTB]

Feb 20, 2020 21:33:34 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Feb 20, 2020 20:54:48 GMT Andrew_S said:

I'm trying to find my VHS video tapes of Sky's 1992 and 1997 election night shows to see what their exit poll was predicting.

And hopefully 2001 too! in 1997 as I said elsewhere they allegedly started with a Labour majority of 175 according to the Nuffield study splitting the difference between the ITN and BBC polls. The new TV Ark shows a photo after 1 result at 10.55pm saying Sky forecast Labour majority 180+. In 1992 I think they highlighted The Sun/ICM exit poll which may be why the misconception that they sponsored it too occurred. 

2001 was a very dull general election compared to the one four years before it, but IIRC on the BBC's election night show they kept a running seats forecast which was constantly updated with each result. I don't recall that happening on any other occasion to the same extent. I think at one point they had the Conservatives on 154 seats, 11 fewer than in 1997.