Nelson Mandela dies in prison before 1990

[AdminSTB]

Supposing Nelson Mandela had never made it out of prison alive. He could have been sentenced to death in 1964 had the prosecution in the Rivonia Trial had their way; then much later in 1988 he had been hospitalised due to tuberculosis, exacerbated by the damp conditions at Pollsmoor.

Would the battle against apartheid have been made more difficult, or would it have come about more or less the same way anyway, with the ascension of FW de Klerk? Certainly there would have been an absence of a symbolic moment like Mandela being released - though had he died it would have surely aroused a great deal of anger. Would another figure have been able to emerge in the same way and take the presidency in 1994?

[The Bishop]

This is an interesting one that has of course occurred to me (and others) before. Things might have gone in a *broadly* similar direction, but I don't think anybody else would have had quite Mandela's authority, charisma or remarkable capacity for forgiveness. He is proof that even if personality isn't everything (and thinking it is tends to be one of "centrism's" persistent weaknesses) it can make a real difference.

[Merseymike]

Jul 17, 2019 10:55:53 GMT The Bishop said:

This is an interesting one that has of course occurred to me (and others) before. Things might have gone in a *broadly* similar direction, but I don't think anybody else would have had quite Mandela's authority, charisma or remarkable capacity for forgiveness. He is proof that even if personality isn't everything (and thinking it is tends to be one of "centrism's" persistent weaknesses) it can make a real difference.

Indeed.

I think the problem SA has had in finding a successor emphasises this. Mandela was above faction (and its likely that he was in the Communist Party at some time in his younger life, and always managed to hold them inside the ANC).

Mbeki was the 'safe' choice of an educated technocrat who proved remarkably unpopular and unable to speak to that 'feelings' aspect of the population. And then there was the bizarre refusal to accept HIV as the cause of AIDS. I don't think anyone can underestimate the disastrous effect this had on the country's public health
Then there was Zuma. Selected largely because he was Zulu and it was time for a Zulu. He was the wrong person, entirely
The right person is now in the job. But I wonder why Mandela didn't select him in the first place. Because it was his choice.

Had Mandela died in prison, I have no doubt that someone would have risen to the top to lead the ANC as apartheid fell, but who knows who it would have been?

[greenchristian]

Jul 17, 2019 10:55:53 GMT The Bishop said:

This is an interesting one that has of course occurred to me (and others) before. Things might have gone in a *broadly* similar direction, but I don't think anybody else would have had quite Mandela's authority, charisma or remarkable capacity for forgiveness. He is proof that even if personality isn't everything (and thinking it is tends to be one of "centrism's" persistent weaknesses) it can make a real difference.

Desmond Tutu had the same qualities, but it seems unlikely that he would have been able to provide the same kind of political leadership without leaving his vocation.

[rivers10]

Jul 17, 2019 11:13:29 GMT Merseymike said:

Jul 17, 2019 10:55:53 GMT The Bishop said:

This is an interesting one that has of course occurred to me (and others) before. Things might have gone in a *broadly* similar direction, but I don't think anybody else would have had quite Mandela's authority, charisma or remarkable capacity for forgiveness. He is proof that even if personality isn't everything (and thinking it is tends to be one of "centrism's" persistent weaknesses) it can make a real difference.

Indeed.

I think the problem SA has had in finding a successor emphasises this. Mandela was above faction (and its likely that he was in the Communist Party at some time in his younger life, and always managed to hold them inside the ANC).

Mbeki was the 'safe' choice of an educated technocrat who proved remarkably unpopular and unable to speak to that 'feelings' aspect of the population. And then there was the bizarre refusal to accept HIV as the cause of AIDS. I don't think anyone can underestimate the disastrous effect this had on the country's public health
Then there was Zuma. Selected largely because he was Zulu and it was time for a Zulu. He was the wrong person, entirely
The right person is now in the job. But I wonder why Mandela didn't select him in the first place. Because it was his choice.

Had Mandela died in prison, I have no doubt that someone would have risen to the top to lead the ANC as apartheid fell, but who knows who it would have been?

I was totally in agreement with your analysis until it came to you assessment of Cyril Ramaphosa who I personally believe to be a dangerous potential "South African strongman" in the mould of Erdogan or Putin.

He was by all accounts in the earlier years of ANC rule much more conciliatory but he (correctly) smells some danger on the horizon for the ANC and rather than doing the difficult but necessary act of cleansing the party of the corrupt clinger ons, opportunists and careerists who make up the bulk of ANC officials these days he's instead distracting from the ANC's internal deficiencies with populist gimmicks to see off challenges from the left without actually challenging the huge imbalances of wealth in South Africa.

Take the appropriation of White Farms without compensation policy, this is a stupid gimmick, agriculture is not the reason why white South Africans are wealthier than black South Africans and it isn't the main source or even a particularly significant source of South Africa's wealth these days, indeed due to drought, lack of finance and other issues many South African farmers (Black and White) are in desperate poverty. No amount of land reorganization is going to solve South Africa's problems and lift even 10% of Black South Africans out of poverty, there just isn't enough valuable land to go around. 

Instead of going after (for example) the mining corporations or the private security firms who are both milking the country for all its worth he's instead pandering to much of his bases prejudices with the whole "get the Boer" rhetoric which just divides an already massively divided country without actually addressing any real problems all the while keeping the REAL South African elites wealth (including his own) completely intact.

[Merseymike]

I suppose anyone has that potential. I have a friend who lived in SA for some years and is married to a South African and they are both Ramaphosa fans. Land reform is something of a flashpoint policy, but of course there are other major problems - notably corruption. He does have to keep enough of his own side together to hold on to power and make the necessary reforms. The DA have reached their ceiling, and drift from the ANC is likely to go to more militant and less compromising groups, so they may have to be placated.

[London Lad]

In the long term I dont think it made any difference either way. Had Mandela not lived then the situation that SA now faces itself would simply arrived earlier - all Mandela did was delay the inevitable.

[Merseymike]

Jul 25, 2019 14:35:43 GMT London Lad said:

In the long term I dont think it made any difference either way. Had Mandela not lived then the situation that SA now faces itself would simply arrived earlier - all Mandela did was delay the inevitable.

I don't think the OP made the assumption that apartheid needed to remain, which is the implication of this post

[London Lad]

Jul 25, 2019 15:11:51 GMT Merseymike said:

Jul 25, 2019 14:35:43 GMT London Lad said:

In the long term I dont think it made any difference either way. Had Mandela not lived then the situation that SA now faces itself would simply arrived earlier - all Mandela did was delay the inevitable.

I don't think the OP made the assumption that apartheid needed to remain, which is the implication of this post

Not at all

[mondialito]

I think it is reasonable to assume Apartheid would have still ended in the 1990s. The end of the Cold War meant there was little reason for the US and others to continue support for the regime, the country was going broke through sanctions and fighting wars at home and abroad and younger generations of whites were increasingly tired of being a pariah state. De Klerk and others in the National Party knew the game was up and it was a matter of when, not if minority rule ended.

Who replaces Mandela as leader if he dies? Perhaps Walter Sisulu, although he was even older than Mandela. I do wonder what would have become of Chris Hani and Steve Biko had they lived to the present day, would they be big cheeses in the current ANC?

[The Bishop]

Highly unlikely in any timeline. Indeed, not convinced he ever aspired to lead the whole nation (as opposed to his own bit of it)

[sirbenjamin]

Feb 15, 2021 21:32:20 GMT @boogieeck said:

Mango Buthelezi becomes President

Which would've been great.

And might have resulted in South Africa not being a de facto single party state today...

[Sandy]

If you listen to the "Mandela effect" wierdos, they would have you believe he did die in prison.....