Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 15, 2019 21:00:10 GMT
Just the one this week:
MANSFIELD DC; Sandhurst (Lab disqualified upon election as executive mayor)
Candidates:
FLETCHER, Cathryn Joy (Conservative)
HARTSHORN, Daniel James (UKIP)
SAUNDERS, Dave (Mansfield Independent Forum)
SWORDY, Michelle (Labour)
2019: Lab 284; MIF 230; Con 152; LD 16
2015: MIF 716; Lab 528
2011: Lab 402; MIF 290; LD 87
The MIF candidate was the councillor here from 2015-2019 and the unsuccessful candidate earlier this year.
Current Council: Lab 15; MIF 13; Ind 5; Con 2; 1 vacancy
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 26, 2019 22:27:35 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 27, 2019 7:30:04 GMT
A really interesting read for me, as this is a by-election where I'd struggle to vote for any of them. The Ian Warren articles linked to by andrewteale are worth a look, including the startling (to me) statement that in the last 5 years 1 million people have left London, mainly to commuter towns across the south of England. I'm aware of the phenomenon but not of how many and how fast. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,441
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 27, 2019 8:02:07 GMT
A really interesting read for me, as this is a by-election where I'd struggle to vote for any of them. The Ian Warren articles linked to by andrewteale are worth a look, including the startling (to me) statement that in the last 5 years 1 million people have left London, mainly to commuter towns across the south of England. I'm aware of the phenomenon but not of how many and how fast. Its really not that startling. London has always had a lot of churn and large scale movements of people coming in and out. Certainly the housing issues are making a major impact. I'm less convinced by Warren's analysis, though. There have been a lot of predictions in the past with regard to inevitable political trends and they haven't come to anything - on the Labour/Tory inevitable collapse depending on temporary events. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2019 12:17:54 GMT
A really interesting read for me, as this is a by-election where I'd struggle to vote for any of them. The Ian Warren articles linked to by andrewteale are worth a look, including the startling (to me) statement that in the last 5 years 1 million people have left London, mainly to commuter towns across the south of England. I'm aware of the phenomenon but not of how many and how fast. Its really not that startling. London has always had a lot of churn and large scale movements of people coming in and out. Certainly the housing issues are making a major impact. I'm less convinced by Warren's analysis, though. There have been a lot of predictions in the past with regard to inevitable political trends and they haven't come to anything - on the Labour/Tory inevitable collapse depending on temporary events. Depends on the trends. Suburban areas becoming more Labour and post-industrial ones more Tory is evident - compare swings in Bolsover to Rushcliffe and Derbyshire North East to Sheffield, Hallam back in 2017. In the US in 2016, the south west (Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada) is more Democrat-friendly than rust belt states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - a near total reverse of 2004. |
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jun 27, 2019 22:29:58 GMT
Hearing it's a MIF GAIN from LAB.
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jun 27, 2019 22:38:29 GMT
I have the order but not the votes sadly:
MIF
LAB
CON
UKIP
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2019 22:39:25 GMT
Where you getting this from?
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jun 27, 2019 22:43:15 GMT
Where you getting this from? Contacts... XD (A Twitter DM from a Mansfield Cllr.) |
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jun 27, 2019 22:46:06 GMT
MIF: 227 (43%)
LAB: 177 (33%)
CON: 71 (13%)
UKIP: 56 (11%)
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,441
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 27, 2019 22:53:27 GMT
Its really not that startling. London has always had a lot of churn and large scale movements of people coming in and out. Certainly the housing issues are making a major impact. I'm less convinced by Warren's analysis, though. There have been a lot of predictions in the past with regard to inevitable political trends and they haven't come to anything - on the Labour/Tory inevitable collapse depending on temporary events. Depends on the trends. Suburban areas becoming more Labour and post-industrial ones more Tory is evident - compare swings in Bolsover to Rushcliffe and Derbyshire North East to Sheffield, Hallam back in 2017. In the US in 2016, the south west (Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada) is more Democrat-friendly than rust belt states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - a near total reverse of 2004. The American ones may not be permanent though - results in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the mid-terms and state level suggest that. New Mexico and Nevada have benefitted from demographic change but it does depend on whether Hispanic voters firm up for the Democrats - and start voting in greater numbers. If so, Texas will go Democrat within 20 years Not so sure about all your UK examples. Derbyshire NE has simply become more Ford Mondeo new-estate middle class as Tories have moved there, Hallam has followed the Northern city anti-Tory trend . Definitely agree about some of the post-industrial areas, though again not all. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 27, 2019 23:05:50 GMT
Mansfield, Sandhurst - Mansfield Independent Forum gain from Labour| Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | Mansfield Independent Forum | 227 | 42.7% | +9.0% | -14.8% | +5.5% | Labour | 177 | 33.3% | -8.3% | -9.1% | -18.3% | Conservative | 71 | 13.4% | -8.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 56 | 10.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.3% |
| -11.2% | Total votes | 531 |
| 78% | 43% | 68% |
Swing Labour to Mansfield Independent Forum ~ 8¾% since May and 12% since 2011 but Mansfield Independent Forum to Labour ~ 2¾% since 2015 Council now 14 Labour + Executive Mayor, 14 Mansfield Independent Forum, 6 Independent, 2 Conservative
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Post by Penddu on Jun 28, 2019 3:55:46 GMT
Hearing it's a MIF GAIN from LAB. MILF? |
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Post by tonyhill on Jun 28, 2019 4:55:18 GMT
Is that Welsh for something?
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jun 28, 2019 9:56:09 GMT
Bude-Stratton Town Council Flexbury and Poughill Ward Lorraine Corrigan-Turner (Independent) 117 Steve Haynes (Labour) 30 Phillipa Purchase (Green Party) 19 Robert Uhlig (Liberal Democrats) 350 Wrong thread - should be on Town and Community Council Byelections |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 28, 2019 10:08:01 GMT
Mansfield, Sandhurst - Mansfield Independent Forum gain from Labour| Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | Mansfield Independent Forum | 227 | 42.7% | +9.0% | -14.8% | +5.5% | Labour | 177 | 33.3% | -8.3% | -9.1% | -18.3% | Conservative | 71 | 13.4% | -8.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 56 | 10.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.3% |
| -11.2% | Total votes | 531 |
| 78% | 43% | 68% |
Swing Labour to Mansfield Independent Forum ~ 8¾% since May and 12% since 2011 but Mansfield Independent Forum to Labour ~ 2¾% since 2015 Council now 14 Labour + Executive Mayor, 14 Mansfield Independent Forum, 6 Independent, 2 Conservative So MIF gain from Labour the council seat vacated by the Labour councillor who beat MIF to become the elected Mayor. I guess you would call that a score draw. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Jun 28, 2019 11:33:07 GMT
Mansfield, Sandhurst - Mansfield Independent Forum gain from Labour| Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | Mansfield Independent Forum | 227 | 42.7% | +9.0% | -14.8% | +5.5% | Labour | 177 | 33.3% | -8.3% | -9.1% | -18.3% | Conservative | 71 | 13.4% | -8.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 56 | 10.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.3% |
| -11.2% | Total votes | 531 |
| 78% | 43% | 68% |
Swing Labour to Mansfield Independent Forum ~ 8¾% since May and 12% since 2011 but Mansfield Independent Forum to Labour ~ 2¾% since 2015 Council now 14 Labour + Executive Mayor, 14 Mansfield Independent Forum, 6 Independent, 2 Conservative So MIF gain from Labour the council seat vacated by the Labour councillor who beat MIF to become the elected Mayor. I guess you would call that a score draw. Doesn't it indicate that Andy Abrahams is quite impressive/has a big personal vote? Labour win with him and lose without him. He won both a council ward and mayoralty that all other Labour candidates have lost to the MIF? My takeaway would be that Labour have shown that generic candidates will narrowly lose to the MIF, but the right candidate can win. If I was in their local party I'd be thinking whether he's the man to win the parliamentary seat back. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 28, 2019 11:42:03 GMT
So MIF gain from Labour the council seat vacated by the Labour councillor who beat MIF to become the elected Mayor. I guess you would call that a score draw. Doesn't it indicate that Andy Abrahams is quite impressive? He won both a council ward and mayoralty that all other Labour candidates have lost to the MIF? My takeaway would be that Labour have shown that generic candidates will narrowly lose to the MIF, but the right candidate can win. If I was in their local party I'd be thinking whether he's the man to win the parliamentary seat back. Maybe a little flattering given that Abrahams’ Mayoral majority was 2. There were also some comments in the Twittersphere that this should be a disappointing result for Labour as, to use the prevalent phrase last night “the wheels have come off the MIF lately”. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2019 12:12:54 GMT
Depends on the trends. Suburban areas becoming more Labour and post-industrial ones more Tory is evident - compare swings in Bolsover to Rushcliffe and Derbyshire North East to Sheffield, Hallam back in 2017. In the US in 2016, the south west (Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada) is more Democrat-friendly than rust belt states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - a near total reverse of 2004. The American ones may not be permanent though - results in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the mid-terms and state level suggest that. New Mexico and Nevada have benefitted from demographic change but it does depend on whether Hispanic voters firm up for the Democrats - and start voting in greater numbers. If so, Texas will go Democrat within 20 years Not so sure about all your UK examples. Derbyshire NE has simply become more Ford Mondeo new-estate middle class as Tories have moved there, Hallam has followed the Northern city anti-Tory trend . Definitely agree about some of the post-industrial areas, though again not all. If Trump gets a second term, Georgia and Texas will be strong hopes for the Democrats in the 2024 election. Arizona and North Carolina are already competitive states. Another comparison is between Leeds North West and Morley & Outwood. Leeds shows the trends well with Tories strong in Elmet and Morley and weak in Leeds NE and NW. But unlike in Derbyshire and West Yorks, the Tories aren't winning post-industrial seats in South Yorks like Penistone and Rother Valley (the former was lost by 1,200 in 2017). |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 28, 2019 15:21:44 GMT
Leeds NW on current boundaries isn't Tory at all... small pockets of it are very blue though.
Morley & Outwood... the villagey bits of the seat are solidly Tory - they've also done okay with the UKIP supporters there. Outwood is a socialist paradise. On a different planet to the remainder of the constituency.
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