Deleted
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Survation
Jun 7, 2020 14:44:20 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 14:44:20 GMT
The electorate responds to the options that it is given. The Labour Party that contested the 2019 election was essentially a different party to the one that contested the 2015 election, at least from the perspective of the electorate.* The Labour Party that contests the next election (whenever it is) will be an essentially different party to the one that contested the 2019 election. I don't know quite how the electorate will respond, but there's no reason to assume it will be the same as the response to the party's previous incarnation. Or the same as any other previous incarnations, obviously. The various party brands themselves are much, much weaker than most people involved in the political process assume. *The version that contested the 2017 election was roughly in between the two, and wasn't that just the whole trick? Pretty much this, do people seriously think Telford or Stoke South won’t be in play for Labour if they next win a majority? There will of course be some which won’t return (NE Derbyshire perhaps?) but 2019 will surely be a ‘freak’ election in many of these areas. ftfy
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 7, 2020 14:55:24 GMT
But those seats did move pretty sharply away from Labour in the 80s and early 90s. The Tory majority in Putney in 1992 was bigger than in 1983 and Battersea did not fall until 1987 before being much more comfortably retained five years later. Both went Labour in 1997 , but Putney was won back by the Tories in 2005 . By 2015 both seats appeared to be comfortably Tory again confirming the gentrification assumptions. Why did that suddenly change just two years later? because the change in voting patterns amongst ABC1s took place then And Brexit.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2020 15:04:18 GMT
But there have been students in Canterbury for a long time - why the sudden shift? I don't have access to the change in total numbers of staff and students, but I warrant there was a very particular effort at registration and vote drumming for the 2017GE? This is not new. Look at the percentage majority trends 1983 30.6 1987 26.5 1992 18.4 1997 7.3 2001 4.6 2005 15.7 2010 12.3 2015 18.3 2017 (0.3) 2019 (3.1) This is an obvious trend of dimishment in an area not otherwise changing. I would warrant that what we see is to an extent differential turnout in the student body, perhaps dependent on someone doing some derious on campus organization? I must be honest here. I think you are being far too optimistic as to both the level of campus organisation and the willingness of students to respond. In my experience the effect is really quite marginal. For a start Labour Students are far less organised than assumed. And this is Kent University and other smaller colleges. Are they really that left wing? Kent has never had that reputation. I do agree that the shift has been both noticeable and sudden. But as I say Students have been here for a long time and to put it down entirely to Labour organisation is not reflective of my experience of it.
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Merseymike
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Jun 7, 2020 15:15:17 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2020 15:15:17 GMT
The specific issue at Telford was a suspicion that AWS was imposed specifically to prevent Sahota from standing again. Of course there's an interesting parallel with Bassetlaw, which also saw candidate selection funny business, an absolutely foul Labour result at the General Election... but had seen an excellent result in the local elections earlier in the year. But this discussion is going round in circles now. I gathered this was so - but why? It doesn't appear to be ideologically based as Gilman wasn't any more to the left than Sahota. Personalities? Union influence?
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 7, 2020 15:23:51 GMT
I think that's oversimplistic. Higher education is certainly a substantial factor but it is not a total explanation of the Canterbury phenomenon. Of course you do refer to one other factor- " the mass importation of people". Whatever that's supposed to mean. It means what it says. A mass importation of staff and student numbers from demographics not at all like core Canterbury. The Liberal candidate for Canterbury in 1951 was Thomas Payne.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 7, 2020 15:40:20 GMT
But those seats did move pretty sharply away from Labour in the 80s and early 90s. The Tory majority in Putney in 1992 was bigger than in 1983 and Battersea did not fall until 1987 before being much more comfortably retained five years later. Both went Labour in 1997 , but Putney was won back by the Tories in 2005 . By 2015 both seats appeared to be comfortably Tory again confirming the gentrification assumptions. Why did that suddenly change just two years later? because the change in voting patterns amongst ABC1s took place then Why though? Were such people so much more drawn to Corbyn rather than Milliband? Or was it just Brexit? If the latter, will they revert to voting Tory now that Brexit is effectively 'water under the bridge'?
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Post by thisguy on Jun 7, 2020 16:24:20 GMT
But there have been students in Canterbury for a long time - why the sudden shift? I don't have access to the change in total numbers of staff and students, but I warrant there was a very particular effort at registration and vote drumming for the 2017GE? This is not new. Look at the percentage majority trends 1983 30.6 1987 26.5 1992 18.4 1997 7.3 2001 4.6 2005 15.7 2010 12.3 2015 18.3 2017 (0.3) 2019 (3.1) This is an obvious trend of dimishment in an area not otherwise changing. I would warrant that what we see is to an extent differential turnout in the student body, perhaps dependent on someone doing some derious on campus organization? This article has some information on student numbers in Canterbury www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/citys-student-population-now-40000-44580/Canterbury’s population of students has swollen to almost 40,000 having virtually doubled in just a decade. Just 10 years ago, when the city council last explored student numbers, its research placed the total at about 22,000.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 7, 2020 16:33:19 GMT
I don't have access to the change in total numbers of staff and students, but I warrant there was a very particular effort at registration and vote drumming for the 2017GE? This is not new. Look at the percentage majority trends 1983 30.6 1987 26.5 1992 18.4 1997 7.3 2001 4.6 2005 15.7 2010 12.3 2015 18.3 2017 (0.3) 2019 (3.1) This is an obvious trend of dimishment in an area not otherwise changing. I would warrant that what we see is to an extent differential turnout in the student body, perhaps dependent on someone doing some derious on campus organization? This article has some information on student numbers in Canterbury www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/citys-student-population-now-40000-44580/Canterbury’s population of students has swollen to almost 40,000 having virtually doubled in just a decade. Just 10 years ago, when the city council last explored student numbers, its research placed the total at about 22,000. For me, that is game, set and match.
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Deleted
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Jun 7, 2020 17:09:38 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 17:09:38 GMT
because the change in voting patterns amongst ABC1s took place then Why though? Were such people so much more drawn to Corbyn rather than Milliband? Or was it just Brexit? If the latter, will they revert to voting Tory now that Brexit is effectively 'water under the bridge'? there is an argument that Corbyns policies were a massive middle class grab. Tbh can you see remainers returning to boris st the next election? Big cities is increasingly divorced from the rest of the uk. Labour and its leaders go down better in big cities. Labour tend to do better amongst well educated voters, younger voters and bme voters. All of which there are a higher density of in big cities. Increasingly those voters are beginning to leave because its to expensive and relocate to nearby places and change the voting patterns of those places too
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Post by justin124 on Jun 7, 2020 17:38:57 GMT
Why though? Were such people so much more drawn to Corbyn rather than Milliband? Or was it just Brexit? If the latter, will they revert to voting Tory now that Brexit is effectively 'water under the bridge'? there is an argument that Corbyns policies were a massive middle class grab. Tbh can you see remainers returning to boris st the next election? Big cities is increasingly divorced from the rest of the uk. Labour and its leaders go down better in big cities. Labour tend to do better amongst well educated voters, younger voters and bme voters. All of which there are a higher density of in big cities. Increasingly those voters are beginning to leave because its to expensive and relocate to nearby places and change the voting patterns of those places too It begs the question though as to why such alleigances suddenly shifted in 2017.If Brexit falls off the radar in the same way that the 2003 Iraq War already has, why should former Tory Remainers not revert to their former voting patterns - particularly if Johnson is no longer there?
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Deleted
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Jun 7, 2020 17:59:50 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 17:59:50 GMT
there is an argument that Corbyns policies were a massive middle class grab. Tbh can you see remainers returning to boris st the next election? Big cities is increasingly divorced from the rest of the uk. Labour and its leaders go down better in big cities. Labour tend to do better amongst well educated voters, younger voters and bme voters. All of which there are a higher density of in big cities. Increasingly those voters are beginning to leave because its to expensive and relocate to nearby places and change the voting patterns of those places too It begs the question though as to why such alleigances suddenly shifted in 2017.If Brexit falls off the radar in the same way that the 2003 Iraq War already has, why should former Tory Remainers not revert to their former voting patterns - particularly if Johnson is no longer there? do you think Boris will no longer be our PM? he'll only have been PM for 5 years after all. Surely he'll want a 2nd term
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Post by justin124 on Jun 7, 2020 18:15:37 GMT
It begs the question though as to why such alleigances suddenly shifted in 2017.If Brexit falls off the radar in the same way that the 2003 Iraq War already has, why should former Tory Remainers not revert to their former voting patterns - particularly if Johnson is no longer there? do you think Boris will no longer be our PM? he'll only have been PM for 5 years after all. Surely he'll want a 2nd term I really am unsure. There are several Tories on politicalbetting.com who expect his departure within the next year on the basis that he is far from well and not at all enjoying the job.He has always had a need to be liked , and the approaching economic storm is likely to lead to levels of unpopularity he will find difficult to bear. This is not what he signed up to a year ago.
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Jun 7, 2020 18:17:00 GMT
do you think Boris will no longer be our PM? he'll only have been PM for 5 years after all. Surely he'll want a 2nd term I really am unsure. There are several Tories on politicalbetting.com who expect his departure within the next year on the basis that he is far from well and not at all enjoying the job.He has always had a need to be liked , and the approaching economic storm is likely to lead to levels of unpopularity he will find difficult to bear. This is not what he signed up to a year ago. I very much doubt that Boris will still be PM in 2024.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 18:44:48 GMT
do you think Boris will no longer be our PM? he'll only have been PM for 5 years after all. Surely he'll want a 2nd term I really am unsure. There are several Tories on politicalbetting.com who expect his departure within the next year on the basis that he is far from well and not at all enjoying the job.He has always had a need to be liked , and the approaching economic storm is likely to lead to levels of unpopularity he will find difficult to bear. This is not what he signed up to a year ago. its early days and there's no evidence that he is anymore unpopular than when he first took the job. Yes his honeymoon is over for now. If he does stand down there is one bloke who might be next leader abd win back those voters; Rishi Sunak. He might be the perfect person too given he's probably been the most interventionist chancellor for a long time while not having the brexit baggage of Boris. That kind of mix could keep C2DE on board while winning over more ABC1s. Though he has no personality...
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Post by justin124 on Jun 7, 2020 18:54:44 GMT
I really am unsure. There are several Tories on politicalbetting.com who expect his departure within the next year on the basis that he is far from well and not at all enjoying the job.He has always had a need to be liked , and the approaching economic storm is likely to lead to levels of unpopularity he will find difficult to bear. This is not what he signed up to a year ago. its early days and there's no evidence that he is anymore unpopular than when he first took the job. Yes his honeymoon is over for now. If he does stand down there is one bloke who might be next leader abd win back those voters; Rishi Sunak. He might be the perfect person too given he's probably been the most interventionist chancellor for a long time while not having the brexit baggage of Boris. That kind of mix could keep C2DE on board while winning over more ABC1s. Though he has no personality... Sunak's probably at the peak of his popularity now. It is likely to fall away sharply when economic reality hits the wider electorate.
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Deleted
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Jun 7, 2020 18:56:17 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 18:56:17 GMT
its early days and there's no evidence that he is anymore unpopular than when he first took the job. Yes his honeymoon is over for now. If he does stand down there is one bloke who might be next leader abd win back those voters; Rishi Sunak. He might be the perfect person too given he's probably been the most interventionist chancellor for a long time while not having the brexit baggage of Boris. That kind of mix could keep C2DE on board while winning over more ABC1s. Though he has no personality... Sunak's probably at the peak of his popularity now. It is likely to fall away sharply when economic reality hits the wider electorate. he's the only tory left with net popularity
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2020 18:58:22 GMT
its early days and there's no evidence that he is anymore unpopular than when he first took the job. Yes his honeymoon is over for now. If he does stand down there is one bloke who might be next leader abd win back those voters; Rishi Sunak. He might be the perfect person too given he's probably been the most interventionist chancellor for a long time while not having the brexit baggage of Boris. That kind of mix could keep C2DE on board while winning over more ABC1s. Though he has no personality... Sunak's probably at the peak of his popularity now. It is likely to fall away sharply when economic reality hits the wider electorate. When reality hits there will be great opportunities for anyone who opposed Lockdown. Memories are short Of course the fact that they really did live up to the term political class without a single voice of dissent means that opportunity cannot be taken by any of the mainstream parties
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 7, 2020 20:26:51 GMT
In a sense, you're right, web - but even if Labour do win these seats again, the days when Labour routinely won Stoke South with 5 figure majorities come hell or high water are surely gone. Unless the entire base of the Labour & Conservative votes in the region or the country changes once more. There has obviously been a large medium-term demographic shift to the Tories in certain seats - in the case of Stoke South and the other Stoke seats, portended by increasingly strange local election results after the Labour full slate in the mid 90s. Just for accuracy the last five figure Labour majorities in Stoke South were 1974 (twice), 1979, 1997 and 2001. That was borne out in local council results where at one point the only non-Labour City and County councillors came from South, and it’s worth noting in 1992 we were so high on the Tory target list they had a full time worker in the constituency. I don’t know whether this debate’s factoring in boundary changes, but pretty much any conceivable change is going to further take the seat away from Labour’s realistic reach.
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Survation
Jun 11, 2020 12:32:36 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 11, 2020 12:32:36 GMT
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johng
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Post by johng on Jun 11, 2020 13:31:22 GMT
The poll is pushing the bounds of movement within the margin of error, but a lot of the movement is statistical noise.
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