Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Survation
May 28, 2019 10:50:46 GMT
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Post by Vibe on May 28, 2019 10:50:46 GMT
Not that there is point doing polls at the moment. For one, 3 parties are having leadership elections
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Survation
May 28, 2019 11:14:11 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2019 11:14:11 GMT
The question is, how accurate are the Westminster polls? We only really have GE results as an indicator there, hence my above comment. It may be that Survation got lucky on both occasions (and they famously didn't publish their poll in 2015 because they didn't trust it) but it would indeed be something to be lucky three times on the trot, so we await their findings for the next GE (whenever that might be) with interest. their turnout model along with almost everyone else was wrong in 2017.it just happened overestimating turnout amongst young people was compensated for overestimating turnout amongst older voters too
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Survation
Jun 22, 2019 21:33:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2019 21:33:05 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Survation
Jun 22, 2019 21:40:20 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2019 21:40:20 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 23, 2019 9:08:45 GMT
Completely ridiculous poll - where on earth is 1% for Change UK coming from??
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2019 12:51:06 GMT
From Change UK supporters. An impressively deadpan reply
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,133
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Post by Jack on Jul 12, 2019 14:06:46 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,203
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Post by cogload on Jul 12, 2019 14:11:02 GMT
Lol.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 12, 2019 15:13:15 GMT
The next election would be interesting with an Australian-type preference system.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Survation
Jul 12, 2019 16:21:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2019 16:21:05 GMT
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Post by froome on Jul 12, 2019 17:17:22 GMT
No prompt for Green, so our rating is way below other pollsters.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 12, 2019 23:07:39 GMT
No prompt for Green, so our rating is way below other pollsters. Ah, that explains why they've got us back to our absolute floor of 2-3%, a figure which is almost certainly wrong.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 13, 2019 9:20:39 GMT
I agree this poll likely understates the Greens, very possibly to Labour's benefit.
But might it also be a tentative sign that the recent shift on Brexit has had a positive effect. The latest YouGov has Labour up a few points as well.....
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Post by justin124 on Jul 13, 2019 9:54:50 GMT
I agree this poll likely understates the Greens, very possibly to Labour's benefit. But might it also be a tentative sign that the recent shift on Brexit has had a positive effect. The latest YouGov has Labour up a few points as well..... Maybe so - but I suspect it is where the Greens would actually end up at the end of a general election campaign. I would expect to see a clear anti-Tory tactical shift back to Labour from the Greens - and the LibDems.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 13, 2019 23:31:15 GMT
Average of the last 6 polls from all firms, (those published in July):
Lab 24.5% Con 24.5% BRX 19.8% LD 17.8% Greens 6.7%
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,191
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 13, 2019 23:40:55 GMT
I agree this poll likely understates the Greens, very possibly to Labour's benefit. But might it also be a tentative sign that the recent shift on Brexit has had a positive effect. The latest YouGov has Labour up a few points as well..... Maybe so - but I suspect it is where the Greens would actually end up at the end of a general election campaign. I would expect to see a clear anti-Tory tactical shift back to Labour from the Greens - and the LibDems. I tend to think that prompts over-boost small parties in comparison to the General Election where they inevitably get far less attention
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2019 11:18:59 GMT
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 14, 2019 11:21:23 GMT
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 14, 2019 13:40:24 GMT
Well if this is right, Opinium is wrong. (Of course I am happy to believe this one, and think Opinium is rubbish. Except that what they show together is that the whole polling thing is a bit dodgy at present).
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Survation
Aug 14, 2019 15:55:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Aug 14, 2019 15:55:05 GMT
Plenty of opportunities for incorrect and partisan interpretation in the Brexit questions! Labour slightly in the lead but essentially a 3 way tie in tge London crossbreak
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