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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Feb 6, 2018 8:26:25 GMT
Survation finally coming back into line No Lab breakthru in Beds SW after all then? If labour ever won there, I might just run around nude through the streets of dunstable.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2018 8:30:33 GMT
The good people of dunstable dont need to see that
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 6, 2018 8:35:33 GMT
My sister who briefly had to live in Dunstable, always referred to it as Dirty Dunstable. I guess they are ready for anything there.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
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Post by thetop on Mar 10, 2018 21:05:35 GMT
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,133
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Post by Jack on Mar 10, 2018 21:06:34 GMT
Edit: Ninja'd by thetop.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Mar 10, 2018 21:07:17 GMT
Survation is completely out of line. Can't be trusted
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Mar 10, 2018 21:10:14 GMT
Survation is completely out of line. Can't be trusted I believe they were out of line before.
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Post by rivers10 on Mar 10, 2018 21:27:45 GMT
For the record I've long stopped trusting ALL polls, I used to think they were at least good at showing movements and trends (even if they got the raw numbers wrong) but given how all over the place they are at present I'm starting to even doubt that. The one thing that has to be said though is that Survation have by far the best record of all the pollsters. They were slated for being way out in 2015 (they called it right) they were slated for being way out in 2017 (they called it right) to slate them now for being way out isn't brave its frankly foolish.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 10, 2018 21:46:29 GMT
It’s one poll everyone chill out Jesus.
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Post by johnsmith on Mar 10, 2018 21:47:21 GMT
Survation is completely out of line. Can't be trusted I believe they were out of line before. Yes, because they were right! And everybody else who was "in line" was wrong! Lol
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Survation
Mar 10, 2018 21:56:30 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2018 21:56:30 GMT
I agree with Rivers. Survation may have got the last 2 elections right but their methodology was off. The future is MRP
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Mar 10, 2018 22:08:11 GMT
Even if you think Labour will lose the next general election, it does seem perfectly logical to think that they should be ahead in early opposition. Similarly, if you weren't turned off by Labour/supportive of the Conservatives at the GE, why would you be now?
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Mar 10, 2018 22:50:24 GMT
I agree with Rivers. Survation may have got the last 2 elections right but their methodology was off. The future is MRP
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Post by lancastrian on Mar 10, 2018 23:29:24 GMT
For the record I've long stopped trusting ALL polls, I used to think they were at least good at showing movements and trends (even if they got the raw numbers wrong) but given how all over the place they are at present I'm starting to even doubt that. The one thing that has to be said though is that Survation have by far the best record of all the pollsters. They were slated for being way out in 2015 (they called it right) they were slated for being way out in 2017 (they called it right) to slate them now for being way out isn't brave its frankly foolish. When you say they're all over the place at the moment, Survation have a clear Labour lead, while the rest are roughly tied. At the GE survation were roughly tied while the rest had a Conservative lead. They're all about 6-10 points left of where they were at the election. And whilst Survation's methodology might not be perfect, there's currently no reason to believe anyone else's is any better. The rest of the pollsters might have decided on a method much more favourable to the Conservatives, but it comprehensively failed it's first test at the ballot box. And to be quite frank I don't believe the Tories are ahead, or close to it, at the moment.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Survation
Mar 11, 2018 0:14:32 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 0:14:32 GMT
For the record I've long stopped trusting ALL polls, I used to think they were at least good at showing movements and trends (even if they got the raw numbers wrong) but given how all over the place they are at present I'm starting to even doubt that. The one thing that has to be said though is that Survation have by far the best record of all the pollsters. They were slated for being way out in 2015 (they called it right) they were slated for being way out in 2017 (they called it right) to slate them now for being way out isn't brave its frankly foolish. When you say they're all over the place at the moment, Survation have a clear Labour lead, while the rest are roughly tied. At the GE survation were roughly tied while the rest had a Conservative lead. They're all about 6-10 points left of where they were at the election. And whilst Survation's methodology might not be perfect, there's currently no reason to believe anyone else's is any better. The rest of the pollsters might have decided on a method much more favourable to the Conservatives, but it comprehensively failed it's first test at the ballot box. And to be quite frank I don't believe the Tories are ahead, or close to it, at the moment. its fair to say that no one has produced a perfect methodology as of yet. The real debate in the GE. Was 2015 turnout vs. likelihood to vote and they turned out to both be wrong but 2015 turnout was just worse. Irony is the methodology debunked 2 years ago is more accurate than the methodology debunked last year.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 11, 2018 3:18:56 GMT
Survation's final poll in 2017 was a Tory lead of 0.9% compared to 2.4% on the night.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 11, 2018 10:05:03 GMT
Still the closest, though YouGov might have been had they not lost their nerve before their final poll.
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Deleted
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Survation
Mar 11, 2018 10:19:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 10:19:12 GMT
Still the closest, though YouGov might have been had they not lost their nerve before their final poll. while YouGovs MRP model was amazingly accuratecat prediciting Kensington & Canterbury. The traditional poll before they changed the don't know reallocation would still have not been closer than Survation but not by much
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Apr 14, 2018 23:30:25 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 14, 2018 23:38:44 GMT
That looks almost the same as the latest YouGov survey.
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