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Post by johnloony on Mar 31, 2024 13:31:04 GMT
Constituency details here: www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-pollingIf you're expecting to see 'Lab gain East Grinstead and Uckfield' come up on the captions during BBC Election 2024, then I think you should brace yourself for disappointment. Now I am on my main computer so now I have a chance to see the map, and I immediately notice even more reasons why the whole thing is bonkers. No Conservative MPs at all in London (not even Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon, Havering). 4 out of 6 Labour in Cornwall. Dwyfor Meirionnydd: PC 43.8%, Green 17.3%, Labour 16.9%, Conservative 12.9%, LD 1.3% Probability of winning Cheadle: Con 37% LD 35% Lab 28%
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Post by johnloony on Mar 31, 2024 13:33:47 GMT
This is even more ridiculous: no column specifically for the Reform Party?
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Post by nobodyimportant on Mar 31, 2024 18:54:12 GMT
This is even more ridiculous: no column specifically for the Reform Party? That's not so ridiculous to be honest - it's supposed to be chance of winning so if they think Reform don't have a 1 percent chance of winning any individual seat (while I disagree with this I don't think it's that far out compared to many of the other things on the sheet) then there's no real point having a column for them.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Survation
Mar 31, 2024 19:46:24 GMT
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 31, 2024 19:46:24 GMT
Constituency details here: www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-pollingIf you're expecting to see 'Lab gain East Grinstead and Uckfield' come up on the captions during BBC Election 2024, then I think you should brace yourself for disappointment. Now I am on my main computer so now I have a chance to see the map, and I immediately notice even more reasons why the whole thing is bonkers. No Conservative MPs at all in London (not even Bromley, Bexley, Hillingdon, Havering). 4 out of 6 Labour in Cornwall. Dwyfor Meirionnydd: PC 43.8%, Green 17.3%, Labour 16.9%, Conservative 12.9%, LD 1.3% Probability of winning Cheadle: Con 37% LD 35% Lab 28% The Cornwall prediction is a stretch, but not quite as outlandish as some of the other predictions. I am fairly confident that Labour will gain Camborne & Redruth and Truro & Falmouth and, given an unwind similar to what has happened in those being likely to happen in St. Austell & Newquay, I think it is 50/50 for a Labour gain there. Cornwall South East is a big stretch and, while Labour have become remarkably well organised here, they would need a landslide of earth-shattering performances to gain it.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 19, 2024 18:17:49 GMT
LAB: 44% (-1) CON: 26% (-) LDEM: 11% (+1) REF: 8% (-1) GRN: 4% (-)
via @survation, 17 Apr
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Post by michaelarden on Apr 19, 2024 21:33:14 GMT
LAB: 44% (-1) CON: 26% (-) LDEM: 11% (+1) REF: 8% (-1) GRN: 4% (-) via @survation, 17 Apr This appears to be the only pollster still putting the Lib Dems in third and in double figures - methodological difference?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 29, 2024 21:40:40 GMT
LAB: 44% (=) CON: 26% (=) RFM: 10% (+2) LDM: 9% (-2) GRN: 4% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @survation, 23-25 Apr. Changes w/ 17-19 Apr.
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Post by batman on Apr 29, 2024 21:56:52 GMT
........which brings to an end, at least for now, the situation described in the previous post.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 10, 2024 10:15:01 GMT
LAB: 44% (=) CON: 24% (-2) LDM: 10% (+1) RFM: 8% (-2) GRN: 7% (+3) SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @survation, 9-10 May. Changes w/ 23-25 Apr.
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 10, 2024 11:07:33 GMT
Three polls taken in the last few days, all show the Labour lead increasing. Let's see if what we used to call Omnisis continues that mini-trend later today.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on May 10, 2024 11:51:26 GMT
And Lib Dems up a bit and Reform down - effect of the locals?
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Post by michaelarden on May 12, 2024 21:52:38 GMT
And Lib Dems up a bit and Reform down - effect of the locals? I'd imagine so. There's usually a small boost to Lib Dem ratings in advance of each round of local elections as the Riso printers are fired up across the country - but that doesn't seem to have happened this year.
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