Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on May 20, 2019 13:36:07 GMT
GOSPORT BC; Brockhurst (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
BELLORD, Simon James (British Union & Sovereignty Party)
MITCHELL, Siobhan (Liberal Democrats)
SMILLIE, Kirsty Anne (Labour)
ULUIVITI, Pecs (Conservative)
2018: LD 452; Con 381; Lab 144; UKIP 63; Grn 56
2016: LD 639; Con 312; Lab 107; Grn 68
2014: LD 415; Con 292; UKIP 283; Lab 111; Ind 82
2012: LD 554; Con 277; Lab 160
2010: Con 918; LD 850; Lab 331; Grn 92
Jul 09 double by: LD 562, 523; Con 364, 339; Grn 131; Lab 60, 56
2008: LD 571; Con 476; Lab 81; Grn 74
2006: LD 677; Con 341; Lab 156; Grn 58
2004: Con 681; LD 385; Lab 206
2002: LD 490, 473; Con 323, 314; Lab 306, 291
The BUSP candidate was the Conservative candidate last year.
Current Council: Con 18, LD 13 + 1 vacancy, Lab 2
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Post by froome on May 20, 2019 14:30:29 GMT
Some great names there.
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Post by tonyhill on May 22, 2019 5:27:48 GMT
The Conservative candidate hails from Fiji which must be quite unusual.
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Post by andrew111 on May 24, 2019 6:36:36 GMT
The Conservative candidate hails from Fiji which must be quite unusual. Could that be a factor in the appearance of this new local British Party? This could be an interesting election |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2019 10:37:36 GMT
The Conservative candidate hails from Fiji which must be quite unusual. Could that be a factor in the appearance of this new local British Party? This could be an interesting election Unusually, their main aim seems to be to oppose Scottish independence: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Union_%26_Sovereignty_PartyI can't fathom why they'd run in Gosport of all places |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2019 10:42:49 GMT
The Conservative candidate hails from Fiji which must be quite unusual. There are a lot of Fijians stationed at Marchwood barracks (South of Totton). The numbers are far from huge but there are certainly some Fijian ex-military personnel who have settled in Southern Hampshire for good. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on May 30, 2019 19:27:07 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 30, 2019 22:19:56 GMT
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 30, 2019 22:24:31 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on May 30, 2019 22:36:04 GMT
Gosport, Brockhurst - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Liberal Democrat | 488 | 51.5% | +10.3% | -5.2% | +16.5% | -4.4% | Conservative | 214 | 22.6% | -12.2% | -5.1% | -2.1% | -5.4% | British Union & Sovereignty | 165 | 17.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 80 | 8.4% | -4.7% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -7.7% | UKIP |
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| -5.7% |
| -23.9% |
| Green |
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| -5.1% | -6.0% |
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| Independent |
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| -6.9% |
| Total votes | 947 |
| 86% | 84% | 80% | 96% |
The British Union & Sovereignty candidate was the Conservative candidate in 2018 Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 11¼% since 2018, nil since 2016, 9¼% since 2014 and ½% since 2012 - although possibly distorted by the British Union & Sovereignty candidate Council now 18 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,907
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on May 31, 2019 0:18:07 GMT
Low TO and despite the general Conservative national meltdown and a split vote for them here they hold up amazingly well with virtually no swing. But impossible to read much into this. I am personally surprised we held up so well and that the LDs made no advance at all.
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Post by yellowperil on May 31, 2019 1:09:09 GMT
Low TO and despite the general Conservative national meltdown and a split vote for them here they hold up amazingly well with virtually no swing. But impossible to read much into this. I am personally surprised we held up so well and that the LDs made no advance at all. Yes I'm a bit disappointed by that result,but it's nice when a double figure swing to us in a pretty safe seat is "no advance at all". I suspect the relatively strong Tory performance down to local factors and the Fijian ethnic thing working in their favour, and the former candidate standing for a made up party may have created a bit of interest. Labour was really dire though. |
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Post by tonyhill on May 31, 2019 4:24:58 GMT
There was a listing on another thread of the top seats by vote for the Brexit Party last week - I can't find it at the moment, but Gosport was in the top ten nationally. The vote for the Brexit Party in Brockhurst was probably around 60% and the BUS Party candidate put out around 6 leaflets which pushed a pro-Brexit line and attacked the Liberal Democrats, so a result I suspect that Gosport LibDems will be quite happy with.
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Post by yellowperil on May 31, 2019 6:04:07 GMT
There was a listing on another thread of the top seats by vote for the Brexit Party last week - I can't find it at the moment, but Gosport was in the top ten nationally. The vote for the Brexit Party in Brockhurst was probably around 60% and the BUS Party candidate put out around 6 leaflets which pushed a pro-Brexit line and attacked the Liberal Democrats, so a result I suspect that Gosport LibDems will be quite happy with. That's interesting. I had wondered whether the BUS candidate was Brexit Party in disguise, or something further to the right! |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 31, 2019 8:59:15 GMT
There was a listing on another thread of the top seats by vote for the Brexit Party last week - I can't find it at the moment, but Gosport was in the top ten nationally. The vote for the Brexit Party in Brockhurst was probably around 60% and the BUS Party candidate put out around 6 leaflets which pushed a pro-Brexit line and attacked the Liberal Democrats, so a result I suspect that Gosport LibDems will be quite happy with. That's interesting. I had wondered whether the BUS candidate was Brexit Party in disguise, or something further to the right! It’s Wiki page describes it as “centrist” and “social democratic” and being formed by Scottish Unionists to oppose Scottish independence, however they have a stand-alone English branch whose webpage appears to be very Farage-like, even, as you say, “further to the right” (they would ban further Commonwealth immigration, whereas I think it’s still Farage’s position to use the Commonwealth to cover jobs lost by the end of European freedom of movement). |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on May 31, 2019 12:46:31 GMT
Low TO and despite the general Conservative national meltdown and a split vote for them here they hold up amazingly well with virtually no swing. But impossible to read much into this. I am personally surprised we held up so well and that the LDs made no advance at all. It's an 11%+ swing away from the Tories from last year with a new candidate for us in the ward containing HMS Sultan where your candidate was an ex-matelot (and even if it wasn't that particular ward, being ex-Navy is a big deal in much of Turk Town). As pointed out above, Brexiteer voters are massively in the ascendency here and make up the majority of both yours and our historical voters. It's worth pointing out too that the other councillor in the ward is a very popular local publican (and twice parliamentary candidate) so the vote shares he gets (in 2012/2016) are going to be naturally higher. So happy with that result for us, with over 50% of the vote again, a reasonable result for the Conservatives in the circumstances but definitely pointing towards them losing the council next year, BUSP did well from a standing start with a vigorous campaign and making inroads into the Brexiteer vote and Labour's result was par for the course for the Gosport Labour Party. |
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Post by middleenglander on May 31, 2019 12:58:30 GMT
Low TO and despite the general Conservative national meltdown and a split vote for them here they hold up amazingly well with virtually no swing. But impossible to read much into this. I am personally surprised we held up so well and that the LDs made no advance at all. It's an 11%+ swing away from the Tories from last year with a new candidate for us in the ward containing HMS Sultan where your candidate was an ex-matelot (and even if it wasn't that particular ward, being ex-Navy is a big deal in much of Turk Town). As pointed out above, Brexiteer voters are massively in the ascendency here and make up the majority of both yours and our historical voters. It's worth pointing out too that the other councillor in the ward is a very popular local publican (and twice parliamentary candidate) so the vote shares he gets (in 2012/2016) are going to be naturally higher. So happy with that result for us, with over 50% of the vote again, a reasonable result for the Conservatives in the circumstances but definitely pointing towards them losing the council next year, BUSP did well from a standing start with a vigorous campaign and making inroads into the Brexiteer vote and Labour's result was par for the course for the Gosport Labour Party. In reality BUSP candidature was not from a "standing start". He was the Conservative candidate in 2018 who polled the highest Conservative vote since 2008 apart from on General Election day. |
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