Belgian Federal Election, 2019

[Toylyyev]

The last poll for the 2014 vote was some 40 days before the election, and it will be held on the 26th this year, so the Kantar one from April may have been the last one for this election.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Belgian_federal_election

Though there were just 11 of them during the previous parliament, and that has risen to 41 so far for the current one, and i am unaware of there being any legal restrictions...

Rather than another poll with two Green outfits and lots of parties, i have taken example from the local election ones with a question about the composition of the next government, and ordered the displayed options according to the possible choices from the following guess of the election result. 

        30 seats   N-VA + DéFI
   Red  31 seats     PS + sp.a
  Blue  27 seats     MR + Open Vld
 Green  24 seats  Groen + Ecolo
Orange  21 seats   CD&V + cdH

To keep it simple i have put up only paired party couples, and ordered each option by largest guessed party size within each family without implying any assumption of which party will provide the prime minister. Also on some results, DéFI may get into the mix, and i have cheekily put them under the N-VA belly counting just the assumed 28 N-VA seats in the options because that pairing seems more likely not to occur.

[Devil Wincarnate]

I reckon the PTB are the joker in the pack.

[Tony Otim]

Given Belgium's not too distant history, shouldn't there also be an option for they won't manage to form a government?

[Pete Whitehead]

I think the poll should be the usual 'which party would you vote for?'

[yellowperil]

May 10, 2019 7:28:37 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I reckon the PTB are the joker in the pack.

only one joker in that pack?

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 10, 2019 7:58:32 GMT yellowperil said:

May 10, 2019 7:28:37 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I reckon the PTB are the joker in the pack.

only one joker in that pack?

They're all jokers, I suppose.

[polaris]

May 10, 2019 7:38:19 GMT Tony Otim said:

Given Belgium's not too distant history, shouldn't there also be an option for they won't manage to form a government?

They always manage to get there in the end, even if it takes eighteen months!

[polupolu]

I ask with some trepidation: what impact did taking 18 months to form a government have? Being politically minded, I would be a bit disheartened if it had no effect (what was all this effort for otherwise?).

[The Bishop]

Given that the federal government is *relatively* weak, they by all accounts didn't manage too badly.

Its not something I would recommend for a strongly centralised state like our own, though......

[Toylyyev]

On The Bishop 's point i don't think the federal character would be of causal effect here, Switzerland for instance is even more decentralized than Belgium and has a history of efficient government formation. The reply below also explains to an extent why political transitions in Belgium are usually very different from the ones in the UK. 

Devil Wincarnate may have been closer to the action at the time and know more detail, but polupolu 's query on the impact seems easy to answer in general terms. Namely no noticeable impact on governance that i am aware of, even at the antipodes of the government shutdown situations in the States. The two underlying reasons i can identify would be the electoral law and the political party landscape during these situations. To explain the operation mode i have compiled the timeline of the 2007–11 Belgian political crisis as wikipedia refers to it:

•        2003-2007      :  Verhofstadt II - (Vld & MR, PS & sp.a, Spirit)
  
• 10/06/07 - 20/03/08:  cabinet formation, Verhofstadt III - (interim, Open Vld & MR, PS, CD&V & cdH)
  
• 20/03/08 - 22/11/08:  Leterme I - (CD&V & cdH, Open Vld & MR, PS)
  
• [...] Van Rompuy I [...]
  
• 25/11/09 - 26/04/10:  Leterme II - (CD&V & cdH, Open Vld & MR, PS)
  
• 13/06/10 - 05/12/11: cabinet formation and negotiation of 6th constitutional reform, Leterme II (caretaker, still the same parties)
  
• 06/12/11 - 2014     :  Di Rupo I - (PS & sp.a, CD&V & cdH, Open Vld & MR)
  

During the 2007 and 2010 formation periods, pretty much the same parties, which i haved bolded above, and either the same or closely related political actors were in charge during the formation and in the official government, many of them having had working relationships during previous governments, so that the practice were informal arrangements where they would be required to run day to day affairs, or to handle expected long term policy matters. And most of the protracted negotiation issues were about constitutional matters that would have no bearing on the short term.

The 2011 coalition treaty was even so thoroughly negotiated that the official cabinet ended up working like a charm, very much unlike the Con-LibDem informal agreement that had been cobbled together within a few days. The average coalition agreement for European polities takes about three months to negotiate, and normally involves a strict and organized process that concludes with a text that contains a politically operable and principled operation mode for the entire legislature. I can't think of any party that has ever taken such risks with coalition talks as the 2010 LibDems. Interestingly the Conservatives then went on to experience the prominence of resilient textual formulations during the Brexit talks, which also do shine a different light on the 2010 Belgian talks and their achievements.

[Toylyyev]

May 10, 2019 7:41:46 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I think the poll should be the usual 'which party would you vote for?'

My main reason for setting it up that way would be the usually overarching political relevance within the Belgian polity of the government formation process for political outcomes compared to the ideology of one single formation participating in that process.

I'll have a go at tweaking it as far as i can to address the query.

[Toylyyev]

www.rtbf.be/info/election/test-electoral/ (French only)

        EU    Brussels     Wallonia      Federal
1.  PTB 52%   Ecolo 69%    Ecolo 59%    DéFI 62%
2.   MR 52%      PS 52%      cdH 55%   Ecolo 61%
3. DéFI 51%     PTB 50%       PS 54%      PS 51%

5 supplementary questions were required to separate DéFI and Ecolo for the Federal survey. 59% there for the first and 58% for the latter.

Some questions do require local knowledge, but there are help boxes and the possibility to skip up to half the questions.

Off to look for the Flanders survey.

--

www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/kies19/stemtest (Dutch)

I get quite low scores from some of the Flemish surveys.

         EU     Brussels     Flanders      Federal
1. Groen 61%    PVDA 44%     PVDA 56%    Groen 44%
2.  PVDA 60%      VB 43%    Groen 44%       VB 36%
3.  CD&V 53%    CD&V 35%     sp.a 40%     sp.a 35%

[Devil Wincarnate]

The RTBF one is crackers.  It claims I'd go for (in order) the PTB (64%), PS (63%), Ecolo (63%), CdH (60%) and then a gap to MR.  Fair to say that's a bit unlikely.  

(I'd vote CdH in Wallonia and CD&V in Flanders)

[Pete Whitehead]

I can't get either of those sites to translate into English but I would vote for either Vlaams Belang or N-VA in Flanders and Parti Populaire in Wallonia

[Toylyyev]

There has been another poll from Ipsos, which has the PS clawing some votes back from the PTB, fewer losses for the MR, and also the best CD&V result for this year.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Belgian_federal_election

The one from the end of April in Wallonia and Brussels¹ is internal MR polling.

[1] Not published in the English wikipedia at the time of writing, but the French page has it.

[Deleted]

May 10, 2019 9:26:20 GMT polupolu said:

I ask with some trepidation: what impact did taking 18 months to form a government have? Being politically minded, I would be a bit disheartened if it had no effect (what was all this effort for otherwise?).

We went to war without a federal government.

[Toylyyev]

Official results tally: elections2019.belgium.be/en

The article below describes the expected timeline of the count. (French)

www.rtbf.be/info/article/detail_elections-2019-quand-disposerons-nous-des-premiers-resultats-fiables?id=10230590

It says that in 2014 half the vote was counted by 20h. 

[Toylyyev]

Exit polls.

Federal elections, Walloon region:

   PS: 27%   (-5.0)
   MR: 19.5% (-6.3)
Ecolo: 13.5% (+5.3)
  cdH: 12.5% (-1.5)    
  PTB: 11%   (+5.5)
 DéFI:  5%   (+2.6) 

Walloon parliament:

   PS: 27,2% (-3.8)
   MR: 20%   (-6.7)
Ecolo: 13,6% (+5.1)
  cdH: 12%   (-3.1)
  PTB: 10,5% (+4.7)
 DéFI:  5%   (+2.4)

Brussels parliament: (Francophone college)

   PS: 19%   (-7.6)
   MR: 16,5% (-6.5)
Ecolo: 16%   (+5.9)
 DéFI: 14%   (-0.8)
  cdH: 10%   (-1.7)
  PTB:  6.8% (+2.9)

Source: www.lecho.be/economie-politique/belgique/federal/elections-voici-les-premieres-tendances/10130769.html#708922

[Devil Wincarnate]

The bloody PS cannot be killed.

[Toylyyev]

Flemish parliament, with 7.7% counted:

     Open Vld  11,47%  (-2,68)
         N-VA  26,71%  (-5,18)
VLAAMS BELANG  18,48% (+12,56)
         CD&V  15,30%  (-5,18) 
         PVDA   5,69%  (+3,16)	
        GROEN   9,84%  (+1,14)
         sp.a  10,87%  (-3,12)