Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on May 17, 2019 18:55:33 GMT
European VI: BXP 30%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 14%, Con 13%, Change UK 6%, Green 5%, UKIP 3%
Very strange Welsh sub-sample - no column for Plaid Cymru at all. Suggests that Hanbury Strategy eat hammers. Why do stupid people bother with sub-samples? |
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Post by curiousliberal on May 17, 2019 20:11:00 GMT
Very strange Welsh sub-sample - no column for Plaid Cymru at all. Suggests that Hanbury Strategy eat hammers. Why do stupid people bother with sub-samples? Whiel==le I agree that you shouldn't read much into subsamples, the complete lack of a major party from one suggests something is particularly odd here. |
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Post by carolus on May 17, 2019 21:29:12 GMT
Why do stupid people bother with sub-samples? Whiel==le I agree that you shouldn't read much into subsamples, the complete lack of a major party from one suggests something is particularly odd here. Yes - you can't use them as actual polls, but there's still information to be extracted from them. There was one I saw recently that appeared to have non-zero SNP votes in some of the english regions. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on May 18, 2019 9:25:15 GMT
That is actually a far from unknown occurrence.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 5, 2019 15:37:01 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 6, 2019 10:47:03 GMT
Not quite a standard VI question for this one, apparently.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 13:59:10 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2019 17:15:25 GMT
The sample seems to heavily skew Labour
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 6, 2019 22:31:31 GMT
The sample seems to heavily skew Labour In theory the weighting to 2017 corrects, but as Anthony wells showed there is a false recall issue |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2019 22:41:48 GMT
It tends to be that Labour voters forget that they voted Labour but here it seems to be that as many Labour voters believe they voted Labour in the last election as Tory voters which we know is not the case
The EU election is probably an easy answer, more people clearly thought they voted in that election than did. I don't geniunely believe Lib Dems and Brexit voters have forgotten already but Labour and Tories may well have forgotten they didn't bother going to the polls at all
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 7, 2019 0:14:45 GMT
It tends to be that Labour voters forget that they voted Labour but here it seems to be that as many Labour voters believe they voted Labour in the last election as Tory voters which we know is not the case The EU election is probably an easy answer, more people clearly thought they voted in that election than did. I don't geniunely believe Lib Dems and Brexit voters have forgotten already but Labour and Tories may well have forgotten they didn't bother going to the polls at all It seems possible. But this is so recent, most people must know whether they voted, so they are lying. But it seems an awful lot for that, and if people are lying, what can we trust? And the same may be true of the referendum and the 2017 GE! When you look at all these elections did not vote is always low, but I suspect they weight to it. This is not a straightforward topic! The real outlier question in this poll is the huge support for no deal Brexit, followed by a question that more or less says the opposite.. What we need is polls correlated with the markec register. Chinese style! Maximum information |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 7, 2019 9:57:31 GMT
Yes its a VI survey, but my point is that it was a slightly non-standard question. Which means some people have said they won't include it in their poll averages. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Sept 7, 2019 9:58:36 GMT
It is all irrelevant as 5 weeks time will be the crunch.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 7, 2019 11:44:26 GMT
It is all irrelevant as 5 weeks time will be the crunch. Polls are not irrelevant to General Elections. In fact right or wrong they have a huge effect on the direction of the campaign |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Sept 7, 2019 12:03:06 GMT
It isn't the general I am referring to.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 23, 2021 11:30:44 GMT
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