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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 10, 2019 15:21:48 GMT
A new kid on the block, so some amounts of salt probably required.
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seanf
Non-Aligned
Posts: 631 
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Post by seanf on Apr 10, 2019 16:46:08 GMT
I would be amazed if any party polled 38% in the Euro elections.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 10, 2019 17:17:41 GMT
Who runs them, Seamus Milne?
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 10, 2019 17:27:39 GMT
Who runs them, Seamus Milne? Amusingly according to Google they were set up by Conservatives, and well-connected ones too. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 10, 2019 17:38:01 GMT
Who runs them, Seamus Milne? Amusingly according to Google they were set up by Conservatives, and well-connected ones too. I’ve just been to their website and looked at their “people” section, it’s an interesting set of people. It’s a weird poll, I don’t believe that the general election prediction is accurate but given the way the ERG and others have behaved over Brexit I probably shouldn’t be surprised. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2019 18:28:32 GMT
Amusingly according to Google they were set up by Conservatives, and well-connected ones too. I’ve just been to their website and looked at their “people” section, it’s an interesting set of people. It’s a weird poll, I don’t believe that the general election prediction is accurate but given the way the ERG and others have behaved over Brexit I probably shouldn’t be surprised. Including a Lib Dem councillor in Maidstone (and former PPC). |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 10, 2019 18:41:36 GMT
Amusingly according to Google they were set up by Conservatives, and well-connected ones too. I’ve just been to their website and looked at their “people” section, it’s an interesting set of people. It’s a weird poll, I don’t believe that the general election prediction is accurate but given the way the ERG and others have behaved over Brexit I probably shouldn’t be surprised. A very eclectic group of people in range of political views indeed. However in background, utterly homogeneous (aka it's not what you know but who you know). |
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 10, 2019 18:58:57 GMT
So Lab up 13% and UKIp down 19% on the last Euros. Hmmm
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spqr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,909
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Post by spqr on Apr 10, 2019 19:01:30 GMT
I’ve just been to their website and looked at their “people” section, it’s an interesting set of people. It’s a weird poll, I don’t believe that the general election prediction is accurate but given the way the ERG and others have behaved over Brexit I probably shouldn’t be surprised. A very eclectic group of people in range of political views indeed. However in background, utterly homogeneous (aka it's not what you know but who you know). ... and what you studied at university, and your previous job, and your kind of name (no Garys or Shelleys there), and even what you look like... All identikit. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 10, 2019 19:03:10 GMT
Salt? More like Saltpetre.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2019 19:09:43 GMT
Salt? More like Saltpetre. A pint of beer and a packet of Saltpetre please..!   explosive combination. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 10, 2019 19:14:03 GMT
Just add a vindaloo and it will be a night to remember ! I suspect there wouldn't be much left of you to remember... |
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Post by redtony on Apr 10, 2019 21:33:34 GMT
Who runs them, Seamus Milne? No Momentum |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 11, 2019 17:55:38 GMT
The data tables had a crossbreak for each European Parliament region, which results in the following seat totals:
Lab 36 (+16)
Con 18 (-1)
Brx 6 (+6)
Lib 4 (+3)
UKIP 3 (-21)
SNP 2 (NC)
Grn 1 (-2)
Plaid 0 (-1)
NI 3 (+3)
As others have pointed out, there's very little chance of any party ever getting that sort of a lead in a European Parliamentary election. Even if this is the true position now, I can't see it holding throughout the campaign, especially as people are reminded that the election takes place under a regional PR system, not FPTP. Labour are leading in each EP region - except the South East and Scotland - which seems very unlikely too (albeit that's partly because of the UKIP/Brexit Party vote).
The poll did take into account turnout though. 35.2% gave a 10/10 voting rating, with 49.4% saying 8/10 or higher. 'Remain' voters were 65.6% 8/10 or above for voting, compared to 49.5% for 'Leave' voters - given that Labour get 47.7% of 'Remain' voters in the poll (and 22.8% of 'Leave' voters), that would help explain why they're so far ahead.
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 12, 2019 0:32:45 GMT
I'm still baffled by how they managed to get a higher Green figure in their Westminster poll than in their European Parliament one.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2019 6:46:22 GMT
The data tables had a crossbreak for each European Parliament region, which results in the following seat totals: Lab 36 (+16) Con 18 (-1) Brx 6 (+6) Lib 4 (+3) UKIP 3 (-21) SNP 2 (NC) Grn 1 (-2) Plaid 0 (-1) NI 3 (+3) As others have pointed out, there's very little chance of any party ever getting that sort of a lead in a European Parliamentary election. Even if this is the true position now, I can't see it holding throughout the campaign, especially as people are reminded that the election takes place under a regional PR system, not FPTP. Labour are leading in each EP region - except the South East and Scotland - which seems very unlikely too (albeit that's partly because of the UKIP/Brexit Party vote). The poll did take into account turnout though. 35.2% gave a 10/10 voting rating, with 49.4% saying 8/10 or higher. 'Remain' voters were 65.6% 8/10 or above for voting, compared to 49.5% for 'Leave' voters - given that Labour get 47.7% of 'Remain' voters in the poll (and 22.8% of 'Leave' voters), that would help explain why they're so far ahead. though tge Tories had a large lead in the 99 euros |
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 12, 2019 8:34:27 GMT
I'm still baffled by how they managed to get a higher Green figure in their Westminster poll than in their European Parliament one. The Green Brexiteer vote at work, perhaps? |
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Post by archaeologist on May 17, 2019 17:52:40 GMT
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Post by carolus on May 17, 2019 18:10:17 GMT
European VI:
BXP 30%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 14%, Con 13%, Change UK 6%, Green 5% 6%, UKIP 3%
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 17, 2019 18:17:05 GMT
European VI: BXP 30%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 14%, Con 13%, Change UK 6%, Green 5%, UKIP 3%
Very strange Welsh sub-sample - no column for Plaid Cymru at all. Suggests that Hanbury Strategy eat hammers. |
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