Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 3, 2019 19:24:41 GMT
EarlyVotes (28%!) show +12% for Reform (ALDE) and -13% for Centre (also ALDE). Reform is traditionally strong here, though.
The Cons. (more xenophobic proTrumpies; ECR) +5.5%, SocialDemocrats -4%.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 3, 2019 19:50:03 GMT
First results:
34.7 (+7.0) ER (Reform, ALDE)
16.2 (+8.1) EKR (Conservatives, ECR)
15.6 ( -9.2) EK (Centre, ALDE)
12.4 ( -1.3) IE (ProPatria, EPP)
11.1 ( -4.1) SDE (S&D)
05.0 (+5.0) E200 (-)
Reform has apparently ruled out EKR as CoalitionPartner; that the present coalition of Reform&SDE&ProPatria will continue (joint by EKR) is unlikely, too, i'd say. What means, that Reform will choose 1 of the 3 governing parties.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 3, 2019 20:05:22 GMT
Have you got appropriate links to Estonia's elections website which prove these results?
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Post by uhurasmazda on Mar 3, 2019 20:17:47 GMT
Have you got appropriate links to Estonia's elections website which prove these results? Here you go: rk2019.valimised.ee/et/election-result/election-result.htmlCentre have been gradually recovering - partly because centre-right parties overperform on the online vote due to greater access; and also because the Talinn in-person polling stations have taken longer to count. Turnout is roughly the same as last time, despite the increased focus on e-voting. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 3, 2019 20:51:27 GMT
80% done:
30 Ref.
21 Centre
18 Cons.
12 ProPatria
10 SocialDem.
.......................
04.5 E200
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Post by greenhert on Mar 3, 2019 20:59:56 GMT
With 90% counted:
Reform 29.8%
Centre 21.5%
Estonian Conservatives 17.7%
Pro Patria 11.6%
Social Democrats 10.2%
E200 4.6%
Greens 1.9%
Others 2.9%.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 3, 2019 21:02:38 GMT
NB: The 1st constituency is "Tallinn North", the 2nd constituency is "Tallinn East", and the 3rd constituency is "Tallinn South" with respect to Estonia's constituencies.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 3, 2019 21:16:14 GMT
With 90% counted: Reform 29.8% Centre 21.5% Estonian Conservatives 17.7% Free Party of Estonia 11.6% Social Democrats 10.2% E200 4.6%Greens 1.9% Others 2.9%. Why would you name your party after a food additive?  |
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Mar 3, 2019 21:28:40 GMT
With 90% counted: Reform 29.8% Centre 21.5% Estonian Conservatives 17.7% Free Party of Estonia 11.6% Social Democrats 10.2% E200 4.6%Greens 1.9% Others 2.9%. Why would you name your party after a food additive? Sorbic acid. Or maybe named after the merc E class? |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 3, 2019 21:39:45 GMT
Why would you name your party after a food additive? Sorbic acid. Or maybe named after the merc E class? Are they trying to break the mould of Estonian politics? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 3, 2019 21:45:44 GMT
NB: The 1st constituency is "Tallinn North", the 2nd constituency is "Tallinn East", and the 3rd constituency is "Tallinn South" with respect to Estonia's constituencies. Tallinn N&E seem to be Russian, different to the South. EKR has weak results in Russian areas (1&2, 7 [NE]), so they are quite certainly no PutinPuppets. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 3, 2019 22:08:56 GMT
99% counted now. Results are essentially final at this point.
Reform 29.0%
Centre 22.8%
Estonian Conservatives 17.8%
Pro Patria 11.4%
Social Democrats 9.9%
Estonia 200 4.5%
Greens 1.8% Estonian Free Party 1.2%
Others (including independent candidates) 1.6%. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 3, 2019 22:57:51 GMT
Final result:
28.8 (+1.1) = 34 (+4) Reform (ALDE)
23.0 ( -1.8) = 26 ( -1) Centre (ALDE)
17.8 (+9.7) = 19 (+12) Cons. (ECR)
11.4 ( -2.3) = 12 ( -2) ProPatria (EPP)
09.8 ( -5.4) = 10 ( -5) SocialD. (S&D)
04.5 ( *4.5) = 00 (+0) E200 (-)
01.8 (+0.9) = 00 (+0) Greens (EGP)
01.2 ( -7.5) = 00 ( -8) FreeParty (lib.-cons. "populism")
Reform's Ms.Kallas (daughter of exLeader and EU-commissioner) ruled the Cons. out before the election, the SocialDemocrats are probably not eager to continue coalitioning, Centre and the 2 right parties is unlikely - what leaves only a GrandCoalition of the 2 ALDE-members.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 3, 2019 23:35:02 GMT
KantarEmor published a poll in early December:
Total - EstonianSpeakers:NonEstonianSpeakers
25.9 - 16.1:64.9 Centre
23.0 - 27.8:03.7 Reform
20.3 - 23.2:09.2 Cons.
09.2 - 08.8:10.8 SocialD.
08.2 - 08.7:06.4 E200
07.8 - 09.1:03.0 ProPatria
03.5 - 05.0:01.6 Greens
02.0 - 02.4:00.4 FreeParty
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 3, 2019 23:57:33 GMT
Interesting (despite the low numbers) are the personalPreferences:
~20.000 Ms.Kallas (Reform)
~17.000 Mr.Kolvart (Centre, Speaker of Tallinn-CityCouncil)
~10.000 Mr.Ratas (Centre, present PrimeMinister)
~09.000 Mr.Helme (Cons.)
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 4, 2019 0:02:42 GMT
Interesting (despite the low numbers) are the personalPreferences: ~20.000 Ms.Kallas (Reform) ~17.000 Mr.Kolvart (Centre, Speaker of Tallinn-CityCouncil) ~10.000 Mr.Ratas (Centre, present PrimeMinister) ~09.000 Mr.Helme (Cons.) The Estonian election-article at wikipedia shows the preferred PM - Centre's Ratas has gained an IncumbencyBonus recently and is roughly as popular as Reform's Ms.Kallas. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 4, 2019 22:25:46 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 5, 2019 1:24:11 GMT
Thank You. Why was this election a shift to progressivism and liberalism for You? Sure, there happened also not the opposite, as the left&sensationalistic journalists claimed another rise of Nazism - the Cons. gained exactly, what the other 2 right parties lost. I personally expect a GrandCoalition, nontheless i wouldn't be sure, that Ms.Kallas will become PrimeMinister. What, if Centre&Cons. try with PP or SDE in some years some kind of antiEstablishment-coalition? In polls published at ee.wikipedia the Centre-PM became increasingly popular, finally he was far ahead of Ms.Kallas (ex grege 35:18). Also, leaving the perennial opposition-edge boosted Center at the beginning, but losses among poorer Russians (especially in Narwa) had to be expected and were rather low in the end. Few days ago students of ETH Zurich proved, that electronic voting isn't safe. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 7, 2019 10:28:11 GMT
Only 2 images i have found so far: First place by ElectoralUnits and - here - the TurnOut:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 8, 2019 11:42:17 GMT
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