Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,282
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 2, 2019 12:35:35 GMT
Just the one for Valentine's Day:
VALE OF GLAMORGAN UA; Rhoose (Con Resigned)
Candidates:
CAMPBELL, Samantha (Independent)
DAVIES, Andrew RT (Conservative)
HARTLAND, John (Labour)
2017: Con 1097, 1067; Ind 809, 565; Lab 587; LD 187
Jun 2016by: Ind 598, 399; Con 520; Lab 401; PC 104; LD 24; Pir 4
2012: Ind 882; Con 810, 727; Lab 713
2008: Con 1169, 1143; PC 556; LD 552; Lab 520
2004: Con 1240, 1085; Lab 729
Samantha Campbell was the second independent in 2017. The first one was the by-election winner from 2016, who took over from the Indy elected in 2012.
Andrew RT Davies is, of course, sitting Conservative member of the Welsh Assembly for South Central Wales since 2007 and was leader of the Welsh Conservatives from 2011-2018
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Feb 11, 2019 17:24:35 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 13, 2019 14:44:57 GMT
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Feb 14, 2019 23:22:41 GMT
Is the count tonight?
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 14, 2019 23:26:55 GMT
Conservative win apparently - no figures yet
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 14, 2019 23:39:27 GMT
Vale of Glamorgan, Rhoose - Conservative hold
| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2016 B | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | Conservative | 1,140 | 61.5% | +20.6% | +19.0% | +36.2% | +27.8% | +29.0% | Labour | 368 | 19.9% | -2.0% | -3.2% | +0.3% | -9.8% | -10.3% | Independent | 345 | 18.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independents 1 * |
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| -30.2% | -27.0% | -29.2% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -7.0% | -7.4% | -1.2% |
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| Independent 2 *** |
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| -19.5% |
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| Plaid Cymru |
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| -5.1% |
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| Pirate |
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| -0.2% |
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| | Independent 3 *** |
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| -36.7% | -37.3% | Total votes | 1,853 |
| 69% | 73% | 90% | 77% | 78% |
* Adam Riley won 2016 by-election but lost seat in 2017 when he was highest placed Independent ahead of Samantha Campbell 2019 by-election candidate ** Rachel Banner *** Philip Clarke topped poll in 2012 and whose death caused 2016 by-election Swing, if meaningful, Labour to Conservative ~11¼% since 2017 Council now 23 Conservative, 14 Labour, 4 Plaid Cymru, 4 Llantwirt First, 2 Independent |
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Feb 14, 2019 23:40:48 GMT
RESULT
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Feb 14, 2019 23:41:45 GMT
CON 1140 (61.5%)
LAB 368 (19.9%)
IND 345 (18.6%)
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 15, 2019 0:43:07 GMT
Given the Conservative candidate being so high profile and no doubt demanding and getting a lot of party help, not all that surprising a result when the most probable alternative was the Indy. In the end the former could not even keep ahead of Labour, in a seat where the Indy vote was generally expected to be higher, but probably some Indy votes and some that might have gone LD had there been a candidate , went Tory this time. Of course the Conservative line was a campaigning, rather anti-establishment (!) one , so it will be interesting to see what happens next.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 15, 2019 7:47:07 GMT
It will be interesting what happens next and the Conservatives already on the council might have slightly mixed emotions on the arrival of their new colleague.
That being said, that is a good Conservative result. Nearly all of us in the prediction competition weren’t convinced that having a high profile candidate would lead to an easy conservative win.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 15, 2019 11:17:17 GMT
It will be interesting what happens next and the Conservatives already on the council might have slightly mixed emotions on the arrival of their new colleague. That being said, that is a good Conservative result. Nearly all of us in the prediction competition weren’t convinced that having a high profile candidate would lead to an easy conservative win.Though this sort of thing has paid dividends in the past, even if it is with recent ex-parliamentarians rather than current ones. For instance John Pugh in a Southport byelection in late 2017 (leading people to speculate that Labour's chances of breakthrough gains there the following year were poor, quite incorrectly as it turned out) and Charlotte Atkins winning an on paper unpromising contest for Labour in her former patch a few years earlier. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 15, 2019 11:22:07 GMT
It will be interesting what happens next and the Conservatives already on the council might have slightly mixed emotions on the arrival of their new colleague. That being said, that is a good Conservative result. Nearly all of us in the prediction competition weren’t convinced that having a high profile candidate would lead to an easy conservative win.Though this sort of thing has paid dividends in the past, even if it is with recent ex-parliamentarians rather than current ones. For instance John Pugh in a Southport byelection in late 2017 (leading people to speculate that Labour's chances of breakthrough gains there the following year were poor, quite incorrectly as it turned out) and Charlotte Atkins winning an on paper unpromising contest for Labour in her former patch a few years earlier. Tessa Munt gained a Somerset County Council seat from the Conservatives in 2017 very much against the trend too. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 15, 2019 11:25:34 GMT
Though this sort of thing has paid dividends in the past, even if it is with recent ex-parliamentarians rather than current ones. For instance John Pugh in a Southport byelection in late 2017 (leading people to speculate that Labour's chances of breakthrough gains there the following year were poor, quite incorrectly as it turned out) and Charlotte Atkins winning an on paper unpromising contest for Labour in her former patch a few years earlier. Tessa Munt gained a Somerset County Council seat from the Conservatives in 2017 very much against the trend too. It would have been interesting (and slightly hilarious) to see Thatcher or Blair campaigning for a local council seat after they had stopped being PM. The doorstop conversations would have provided enough material for a whole sitcom series. Hmm, let me just go and find a biro.... |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 15, 2019 11:33:42 GMT
Tessa Munt gained a Somerset County Council seat from the Conservatives in 2017 very much against the trend too. It would have been interesting (and slightly hilarious) to see Thatcher or Blair campaigning for a local council seat after they had stopped being PM. The doorstop conversations would have provided enough material for a whole sitcom series. Hmm, let me just go and find a biro.... I again offer to collaborate on the script. Working Titles... 'Tone It Down Marge' 'On The Margins of Reality' 'Tone Frit' 'No. No Causes Are Too Tough' |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 15, 2019 11:39:56 GMT
It would have been interesting (and slightly hilarious) to see Thatcher or Blair campaigning for a local council seat after they had stopped being PM. The doorstop conversations would have provided enough material for a whole sitcom series. Hmm, let me just go and find a biro.... I again offer to collaborate on the script. Working Titles... 'Tone It Down Marge' 'On The Margins of Reality' 'Tone Frit' 'No. No Causes Are Too Tough' "Blank Canvass" ?
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 15, 2019 11:42:24 GMT
I again offer to collaborate on the script. Working Titles... 'Tone It Down Marge' 'On The Margins of Reality' 'Tone Frit' 'No. No Causes Are Too Tough' "Blank Canvass" ?
Oh I like that. |
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