Successful Lib Dem 'decapitation strategy' in 2005

[Deleted]

In 2005, the Liberal Democrats targeted several high-profile Tories. Of these, only Tim Collins in Westmorland & Lonsdale was beaten. What if David Davis, Michael Howard, Oliver Letwin and Theresa May were also ousted? 

[heslingtonian]

It would have meant the Conservatives would have almost certainly been too far back to realistically challenge in 2010 for starters.

[catking]

The most obvious and immediate implication would have been on the Tory leadership contest.

Firstly, with Howard losing his seat, the contest would have happened straight away rather than the long summer contest and party conference beauty contest. There would also have been no post-election reshuffle by Howard, when he promoted Cameron and Osborne.

Without those factors, it is unlikely Cameron would have emerged in the way that he did. At the same time, Davis would have lost his seat so the clear front runner would also have been absent from the contest. Therefore, Liam Fox would probably have ended up as the candidate of the Right. Early in the contest, there was talk of both Oliver Letwin and Andrew Lansley putting themselves forward as modernising candidates but both electing to back Cameron. Rifkind would still have run but I doubt he'd have had any more success than he did in reality.

Ken Clarke might have done better in the absence of a strong Cameron candidacy and the large number of losses to the Lib Dems might have made the MPs and membership more even inclined to pick a moderate leader.

It would have been a total mess.

[timrollpickering]

Don't forget Alan Duncan's blink-and-miss-it candidacy.

IIRC Letwin was also on the Lib Dem target list and would probably have joined Howard, Davis and May in such circumstances, though Lansley would have been a tougher ask.

This would probably also have meant Michael Ancram wound up as acting leader, and no doubt Labour would never tire of saying "the Marquis of Lothian".

[froome]

Jan 23, 2019 18:05:30 GMT timrollpickering said:

Don't forget Alan Duncan's blink-and-miss-it candidacy.

IIRC Letwin was also on the Lib Dem target list and would probably have joined Howard, Davis and May in such circumstances, though Lansley would have been a tougher ask.

This would probably also have meant Michael Ancram wound up as acting leader, and no doubt Labour would never tire of saying "the Marquis of Lothian".

I expect what they would actually have said was the Marquis of loathing...