andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 13, 2019 19:27:12 GMT
Yep. St ives. Reason for a gain. Andrew George, 350 majority. Reasons against a gain- Pro Euro stance in a Brexity place Fife NE. For- 2 majority, Unionist tactical votes. Against- SNP are up in the polls since 2017 Ceredigion- For- Liberal tradition. Against- ?? Richmond Park - For- Pro euro will play well. Against- further by election unwind Cheltenham - Pro Euro will play well, Local election results. Against- ??Sheffield Hallam- For- No Anti- Clegg vote. O’ Mara tenure. Against- Labour will campaign hard to retain. "Against" is that Alex Chalk has a bit of incumbency now and has been a reasonably hard-working and inoffensive moderate Tory who has kept his head down on Brexit. He's up against a very well organised LD party with a new and (IMO) excellent PPC but it's worth remembering that Cheltenham is the sort of place which you'd normally expect to elect a Conservative, probable of the old-fashioned "nice chap" sort (rather than a combative thruster you might want in e.g. Thurrock) and it's an accident of history that the Liberals got in here and dug in. My impression from the regional news etc is that he is reasonably hard working and sensible, but didn’t want to assume that! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2019 19:30:55 GMT
Any seat you lost by just 2 votes last time has to be at least a decent possibility...... Now if they can only track down those two voters...... The Conservative claim that "only the Conservatives can beat the SNP here" may be a little difficult to repeat next time. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2019 19:33:25 GMT
Yep. St ives. Reason for a gain. Andrew George, 350 majority. Reasons against a gain- Pro Euro stance in a Brexity place Fife NE. For- 2 majority, Unionist tactical votes. Against- SNP are up in the polls since 2017 Ceredigion- For- Liberal tradition. Against- ??Richmond Park - For- Pro euro will play well. Against- further by election unwind Cheltenham - Pro Euro will play well, Local election results. Against- ?? Sheffield Hallam- For- No Anti- Clegg vote. O’ Mara tenure. Against- Labour will campaign hard to retain. Not sure how resilient any "Liberal tradition" will be here. Ceredigion is not what it was. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2019 19:54:27 GMT
"Against" is that Alex Chalk has a bit of incumbency now and has been a reasonably hard-working and inoffensive moderate Tory who has kept his head down on Brexit. He's up against a very well organised LD party with a new and (IMO) excellent PPC but it's worth remembering that Cheltenham is the sort of place which you'd normally expect to elect a Conservative, probable of the old-fashioned "nice chap" sort (rather than a combative thruster you might want in e.g. Thurrock) and it's an accident of history that the Liberals got in here and dug in. My impression from the regional news etc is that he is reasonably hard working and sensible, but didn’t want to assume that! Obviously he's a bastard who should be removed ASAP but actually I think he's well-meaning (if a bit bland). IMO he was lucky - he got in on the anti-LD tide of 2015 and benefitted from Corbymania bolstering the Lab vote in 2016 which would otherwise have been squeezed - but he's clearly not taken things for granted. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2019 19:55:46 GMT
Yep. St ives. Reason for a gain. Andrew George, 350 majority. Reasons against a gain- Pro Euro stance in a Brexity place Fife NE. For- 2 majority, Unionist tactical votes. Against- SNP are up in the polls since 2017 Ceredigion- For- Liberal tradition. Against- ??Richmond Park - For- Pro euro will play well. Against- further by election unwind Cheltenham - Pro Euro will play well, Local election results. Against- ?? Sheffield Hallam- For- No Anti- Clegg vote. O’ Mara tenure. Against- Labour will campaign hard to retain. Not sure how resilient any "Liberal tradition" will be here. Ceredigion is not what it was. Cardiganshire? (insert tin-hat smiley) |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 13, 2019 21:05:24 GMT
Any seat you lost by just 2 votes last time has to be at least a decent possibility...... Now if they can only track down those two voters...... Or one voter, threaten his dog, and hope when it comes to a tie. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 14, 2019 7:46:24 GMT
Now if they can only track down those two voters...... The Conservative claim that "only the Conservatives can beat the SNP here" may be a little difficult to repeat next time.Depends how dodgy their bar charts are.  |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 14, 2019 8:07:49 GMT
I came across these last few posts via the "recent threads"route, and struggled just a bit to relate them to the thread title: "only the Conservatives can beat the SNP here" in sunny Bexhill-on-Sea?
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Post by froome on Jan 14, 2019 9:37:44 GMT
Yep. St ives. Reason for a gain. Andrew George, 350 majority. Reasons against a gain- Pro Euro stance in a Brexity place Fife NE. For- 2 majority, Unionist tactical votes. Against- SNP are up in the polls since 2017 Ceredigion- For- Liberal tradition. Against- ?? Richmond Park - For- Pro euro will play well. Against- further by election unwind Cheltenham - Pro Euro will play well, Local election results. Against- ??Sheffield Hallam- For- No Anti- Clegg vote. O’ Mara tenure. Against- Labour will campaign hard to retain. "Against" is that Alex Chalk has a bit of incumbency now and has been a reasonably hard-working and inoffensive moderate Tory who has kept his head down on Brexit. He's up against a very well organised LD party with a new and (IMO) excellent PPC but it's worth remembering that Cheltenham is the sort of place which you'd normally expect to elect a Conservative, probable of the old-fashioned "nice chap" sort (rather than a combative thruster you might want in e.g. Thurrock) and it's an accident of history that the Liberals got in here and dug in. Yes I agree with Adam on this, and suspect Cheltenham will remain blue for a while now*. Although people often think it is similar to here in Bath, where being a wet Tory did not save our MP's job in 2017, they are really quite different culturally and demographically. *Obviously no predictions on what will happen in the next parliamentary election are worth anything until we see what world we inhabit post March 29. But assuming normality returns, I would also expect Thornbury & Yate to remain blue as well. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 14, 2019 11:14:28 GMT
Ceredigion- For- Liberal tradition. Against- ??
The sitting Plaid MP will have the benefit of "double incumbency"? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 15, 2019 9:21:45 GMT
Now if they can only track down those two voters...... Or one voter, threaten his dog, and hope when it comes to a tie. Bunnies will not vote Liberal. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 15, 2019 9:36:55 GMT
Or one voter, threaten his dog, and hope when it comes to a tie. Bunnies will not vote Liberal. Especially if they go to France. The reliance on the anthropomorphic vote has a bestial tendency. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 15, 2019 11:27:13 GMT
Or one voter, threaten his dog, and hope when it comes to a tie. Bunnies will not vote Liberal. The Hare today, gone tomorrow sort of voter. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 15, 2019 11:51:27 GMT
Bunnies will not vote Liberal. The Hare today, gone tomorrow sort of voter. It is all about leveretage in politics. |
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2019 14:51:24 GMT
Any seat you lost by just 2 votes last time has to be at least a decent possibility...... Now if they can only track down those two voters...... I very nearly made them lose by just one vote... |
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