CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 11, 2019 12:29:50 GMT
In one sense it would be foolish to deny there is some truth in what you say. But I think it betrays certain weaknesses of thought, if I may say so, which typifies the "major" parties. "Relevance" is thought of in terms of national not local politics, being a "national contender" is all that matters. But changes at local level can really still be significant, I would certainly want to contend, and can sometimes come about relatively quickly.Nevertheless the other limitation in your approach seems to me rather short-termist. Lib Dems have to put down roots and hope for results over a substantial period of time - the lifetime of a particular activist, maybe. If it takes that long so be it, and if it doesn't work, well we have done our best. Instant results are the ones that are illusory. And of course when the LibDems have done well nationally it is on the back of local success. However it doesn't happen everywhere. When I lived in Liverpool Walton they held a majority of councillors but they never came anywhere near winning nationally. And once they have lost that impetus it's hard to get it back. Look at how far behind they are in some seats they once held and not long ago. Some seats where they are close may not be so with a different candidate? Will they win St Ives without Andrew George, for example, given Labour's success in some parts of the seat and the lack of LibDem presence in other Cornish seats? Labour are now much more likely to win in two of the seats and the Tories look pretty safe in the others. Has Andrew George announced he won't stand in St. Ives again? I would be surprised if he has - I think that Labour would not be too disappointed if he gained St. Ives - their main strength is in Penzance and I can see them not trying too hard to get in his way if he stands again. The interesting question is whether Labour have the sense to target properly, not wasting too many resources outside of Truro & Falmouth and Camborne & Redruth? I can see the Lib Dems falling further back in Newquay and St. Austell, and it is a long-term target for Labour, but how much effort do activists want to expend on coming an even better second when the chance of two gains is so clearly in the best interests of the party in Cornwall? You can be certain that the Lib Dems will throw everything at St. Ives and North Cornwall, although I would advise them to concentrate on the former, and Cornwall South-East is interesting in that Labour could solidify its second place to the Tories, but, again, not at the risk of failing to gain the two target seats. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 11, 2019 12:46:35 GMT
And of course when the LibDems have done well nationally it is on the back of local success. However it doesn't happen everywhere. When I lived in Liverpool Walton they held a majority of councillors but they never came anywhere near winning nationally. And once they have lost that impetus it's hard to get it back. Look at how far behind they are in some seats they once held and not long ago. Some seats where they are close may not be so with a different candidate? Will they win St Ives without Andrew George, for example, given Labour's success in some parts of the seat and the lack of LibDem presence in other Cornish seats? Labour are now much more likely to win in two of the seats and the Tories look pretty safe in the others. Has Andrew George announced he won't stand in St. Ives again? I would be surprised if he has - I think that Labour would not be too disappointed if he gained St. Ives - their main strength is in Penzance and I can see them not trying too hard to get in his way if he stands again. The interesting question is whether Labour have the sense to target properly, not wasting too many resources outside of Truro & Falmouth and Camborne & Redruth? I can see the Lib Dems falling further back in Newquay and St. Austell, and it is a long-term target for Labour, but how much effort do activists want to expend on coming an even better second when the chance of two gains is so clearly in the best interests of the party in Cornwall? You can be certain that the Lib Dems will throw everything at St. Ives and North Cornwall, although I would advise them to concentrate on the former, and Cornwall South-East is interesting in that Labour could solidify its second place to the Tories, but, again, not at the risk of failing to gain the two target seats. Andrew George was reselected in 2018. I would have thought he is extremely likely to regain St Ives. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 11, 2019 13:00:32 GMT
Has Andrew George announced he won't stand in St. Ives again? I would be surprised if he has - I think that Labour would not be too disappointed if he gained St. Ives - their main strength is in Penzance and I can see them not trying too hard to get in his way if he stands again. The interesting question is whether Labour have the sense to target properly, not wasting too many resources outside of Truro & Falmouth and Camborne & Redruth? I can see the Lib Dems falling further back in Newquay and St. Austell, and it is a long-term target for Labour, but how much effort do activists want to expend on coming an even better second when the chance of two gains is so clearly in the best interests of the party in Cornwall? You can be certain that the Lib Dems will throw everything at St. Ives and North Cornwall, although I would advise them to concentrate on the former, and Cornwall South-East is interesting in that Labour could solidify its second place to the Tories, but, again, not at the risk of failing to gain the two target seats. Andrew George was reselected in 2018. I would have thought he is extremely likely to regain St Ives. Totally agree. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 11, 2019 13:22:02 GMT
He might but I'm not sure. I was suggesting if he wasn't the candidate the LibDems wouldn't win.
I agree that the two marginals should be the priority. There will be some sort of campaign in Newquay and St Austellto ensure we cement ourselves into second place, but I'd have thought that the other seats will just have the free leaflet and some social media and press presence.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 11, 2019 13:35:21 GMT
Quite a creditable performance especially in the light of the candidate withdrawal in St Marks ( anyone know what that was about ,by the way?) Someone put a comment on Mark Pack's blog - since removed, as far as I can see - about there being a "complex" relationship with the local independents. I'm not au fait with exactly what that entails, but it seems to mean that we sometimes give them a clear run. Not sure that I approve, but it the indies are fairly liberal-minded and we can work with them on the council there might be some merit in it. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 11, 2019 13:37:29 GMT
Quite a creditable performance especially in the light of the candidate withdrawal in St Marks ( anyone know what that was about ,by the way?) Someone put a comment on Mark Pack's blog - since removed, as far as I can see - about there being a "complex" relationship with the local independents. I'm not au fait with exactly what that entails, but it seems to mean that we sometimes give them a clear run. Not sure that I approve, but it the indies are fairly liberal-minded and we can work with them on the council there might be some merit in it. one of the winners is the widow of the ex Conservative Independent former councillor. So I wondered if the Independents were Mostly ex Conservatives? |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 11, 2019 13:46:18 GMT
Someone put a comment on Mark Pack's blog - since removed, as far as I can see - about there being a "complex" relationship with the local independents. I'm not au fait with exactly what that entails, but it seems to mean that we sometimes give them a clear run. Not sure that I approve, but it the indies are fairly liberal-minded and we can work with them on the council there might be some merit in it. one of the winners is the widow of the ex Conservative Independent former councillor. So I wondered if the Independents were Mostly ex Conservatives? The widow is herself an ex-conservative councillor at district level. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 11, 2019 13:56:05 GMT
Quite a creditable performance especially in the light of the candidate withdrawal in St Marks ( anyone know what that was about ,by the way?) Someone put a comment on Mark Pack's blog - since removed, as far as I can see - about there being a "complex" relationship with the local independents. I'm not au fait with exactly what that entails, but it seems to mean that we sometimes give them a clear run. Not sure that I approve, but it the indies are fairly liberal-minded and we can work with them on the council there might be some merit in it. Given a council where there is a big Conservative overall majority and the opposition groups have at at best a handful of seats each, I can see it makes sense sometimes to focus on one non -conservative candidate where fighting each other too hard just lets the Conservative in. However, it is also important to create an election machine and you can't do that if you are constantly standing down. I suppose the argument that it was best to focus on one by-election and pull out of the other might make some sense but by hindsight the Indy in St Marks would probably have had enough votes to beat the Tory without "lending" them some LD ones - but of course you never quite know that. As was said earlier, it looks as though Labour's strategy was to field paper candidates only, in both elections. On the "ex-Conservative " Indy issue, it depends whether you emphasise the "Con "bit or the "ex" bit how you view that. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 11, 2019 14:13:47 GMT
On the "ex-Conservative " Indy issue, it depends whether you emphasise the "Con "bit or the "ex" bit how you view that. Which may in turn depend on the reasons for them being "ex"... |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 11, 2019 14:19:29 GMT
one of the winners is the widow of the ex Conservative Independent former councillor. So I wondered if the Independents were Mostly ex Conservatives? The widow is herself an ex-conservative councillor at district level. The fact they are "ex" says a lot, though |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 11, 2019 14:47:12 GMT
On the "ex-Conservative " Indy issue, it depends whether you emphasise the "Con "bit or the "ex" bit how you view that. Which may in turn depend on the reasons for them being "ex"... Indeed, I can think of a few ex-Con Indies (won't say who or where I have in mind) who abandoned the CP as being too soft liberal pinkies, and some others where the party has abandoned them because they know they are useless. On the other hand I can think of really effective people who I would think would fit into the Lib Dems as their natural home, it's just they haven't yet realised it. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 11, 2019 14:49:02 GMT
East Sussex, Bexhill West - Independent hold | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 | | Independent | 1,761 | 51.9% | from nowhere | Conservative | 1,071 | 31.6% | -1.7% | Liberal Democrat | 261 | 7.7% | +2.1% | Labour | 111 | 3.3% | -3.8% | Green | 107 | 3.2% | from nowhere | UKIP | 81 | 2.4% | -1.2% | Previous Independent |
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| -50.4% | Total votes | 3,392 |
| 83% |
Swing only meaningful if Independents are considered together, Conservative to Independent ~ 1½% since 2017 Council now 30 Conservative, 11 liberal Democrat, 4 Labour, 3 Independent, 2 Independent Democrat Rother, Bexhill St Marks - Independent hold - amended as UKIP vote was 48 not 58 as reported last night | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Independent | 1,000 | 60.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 521 | 31.6% | -2.3% | +0.2% | -4.8% | -3.1% | Labour | 79 | 4.8% | -4.6% | -6.2% | -3.1% | -3.3% | UKIP | 48 | 2.9% | -15.0% | -18.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independent |
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| -38.7% | -36.6% | -37.3% | -38.4% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -18.4% | -18.9% | Total votes | 1,648 |
| 49% | 57% | 61% | 63% |
Swing only meaningful if Independents are considered together, then Conservative to Independent ~ 12% since 2015 and 14% / 12¾% since 2011 Council 30 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent Group, 1 Independent
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Post by tonygreaves on Jan 12, 2019 16:21:01 GMT
A stupid comment from ALDC. As someone who some decades ago used to cover local by-elections for ALC and ALDC, (at a time when hardly anyone else did so anywhere), I am embarrassed by this kind of nonsense. And the problem of not telling the facts as they ae is that you are kidding yourselves.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 12, 2019 23:44:01 GMT
Current polls almost all suggest the LDs taking that seat and at least one other, perhaps two to four, and losing none. Eastbourne is problematic. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 13, 2019 9:07:54 GMT
Current polls almost all suggest the LDs taking that seat and at least one other, perhaps two to four, and losing none. Agree that Eastbourne is a question mark. I think St Ives is the most likely gain. The second most likely Lib Dem gain is interesting. Fife NE, Ceredigion, Richmond Park, Cheltenham?? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2019 11:23:18 GMT
Any seat you lost by just 2 votes last time has to be at least a decent possibility......
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 13, 2019 11:30:11 GMT
Any seat you lost by just 2 votes last time has to be at least a decent possibility...... Now if they can only track down those two voters...... |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 13, 2019 13:44:23 GMT
Current polls almost all suggest the LDs taking that seat and at least one other, perhaps two to four, and losing none. Agree that Eastbourne is a question mark. I think St Ives is the most likely gain. The second most likely Lib Dem gain is interesting. Fife NE, Ceredigion, Richmond Park, Cheltenham?? Sheffield Hallam? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 13, 2019 14:52:01 GMT
Agree that Eastbourne is a question mark. I think St Ives is the most likely gain. The second most likely Lib Dem gain is interesting. Fife NE, Ceredigion, Richmond Park, Cheltenham?? Sheffield Hallam? Yep. St ives. Reason for a gain. Andrew George, 350 majority. Reasons against a gain- Pro Euro stance in a Brexity place Fife NE. For- 2 majority, Unionist tactical votes. Against- SNP are up in the polls since 2017 Ceredigion- For- Liberal tradition. Against- ?? Richmond Park - For- Pro euro will play well. Against- further by election unwind Cheltenham - Pro Euro will play well, Local election results. Against- ?? Sheffield Hallam- For- No Anti- Clegg vote. O’ Mara tenure. Against- Labour will campaign hard to retain. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2019 18:24:35 GMT
Yep. St ives. Reason for a gain. Andrew George, 350 majority. Reasons against a gain- Pro Euro stance in a Brexity place Fife NE. For- 2 majority, Unionist tactical votes. Against- SNP are up in the polls since 2017 Ceredigion- For- Liberal tradition. Against- ?? Richmond Park - For- Pro euro will play well. Against- further by election unwind Cheltenham - Pro Euro will play well, Local election results. Against- ??Sheffield Hallam- For- No Anti- Clegg vote. O’ Mara tenure. Against- Labour will campaign hard to retain. "Against" is that Alex Chalk has a bit of incumbency now and has been a reasonably hard-working and inoffensive moderate Tory who has kept his head down on Brexit. He's up against a very well organised LD party with a new and (IMO) excellent PPC but it's worth remembering that Cheltenham is the sort of place which you'd normally expect to elect a Conservative, probable of the old-fashioned "nice chap" sort (rather than a combative thruster you might want in e.g. Thurrock) and it's an accident of history that the Liberals got in here and dug in. |
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