Post by middleenglander on Dec 27, 2018 19:46:19 GMT
The coming year is when the largest number of Councillors in England are elected within the 4 year electoral cycle at the May annual elections. As in the past, 2019 is therefore likely to see the smallest number of seats contested at by-elections in the cycle as there will be fewer ahead of the annual elections in May due to the "six month" rule whilst post May there could well be fewer than usual as a large number of Councillors will have been recently elected. In recent years, 2011 saw a total of 162 seats contested in England whilst 2015 had 184, slightly increased by a number of Councillors resigning after being elected MPs at the 2015 General Election.
This scenario does not fully apply to Scotland and Wales as their last Council elections were in 2017, so 2019 will be the second year of their cycle. In 2011 there were 18 by-elections in Scotland and 12 in Wales whereas in 2015 Scotland saw 38 with Wales having 29. However, 2014 the second year of their cycle saw 17 Scottish Council by-elections and 15 in Wales. It is considered 2019 will be more like 2011 and 2014 than 2015.
The total number of seats contested may therefore be around 200, unless past trends are disturbed by political upheaval, compared to 272 last year and a recent peak of 348 in 2017.
So far, 5 Local Council by-elections have been called for 2019, all in England, with 3 in January and 2 in February. There are currently 7 known other vacancies in England, an impending vacancy in Kensington & Chelsea has been discounted for the time being, and 1 in Wales where there may well be by-elections before May. There are a further 12 vacancies in England, not covered by the "6 month" rule, where the seat will be contested again in May. Unless by-elections are called for these early in the New Year it is highly likely they will remain vacant until May, as were a broadly similar number in 2011 and 2015.
In 2011 there were 22 by-elections in England during the January to April period, with 4 in Scotland and 3 in Wales. This compares to 15 in England but 6 in Scotland and 4 in Wales over the same period in 2015, although ahead of the anticipated General Election. At this early stage it is considered there could well be around 20 English seats contested during the January to April 2019 period with only the 1 current vacancy in Wales.
At the annual May elections in 2011 there were 23 single by-elections in England along with 25 "double" elections whereas in 2015 the corresponding numbers were 43 and 31.
This scenario does not fully apply to Scotland and Wales as their last Council elections were in 2017, so 2019 will be the second year of their cycle. In 2011 there were 18 by-elections in Scotland and 12 in Wales whereas in 2015 Scotland saw 38 with Wales having 29. However, 2014 the second year of their cycle saw 17 Scottish Council by-elections and 15 in Wales. It is considered 2019 will be more like 2011 and 2014 than 2015.
The total number of seats contested may therefore be around 200, unless past trends are disturbed by political upheaval, compared to 272 last year and a recent peak of 348 in 2017.
So far, 5 Local Council by-elections have been called for 2019, all in England, with 3 in January and 2 in February. There are currently 7 known other vacancies in England, an impending vacancy in Kensington & Chelsea has been discounted for the time being, and 1 in Wales where there may well be by-elections before May. There are a further 12 vacancies in England, not covered by the "6 month" rule, where the seat will be contested again in May. Unless by-elections are called for these early in the New Year it is highly likely they will remain vacant until May, as were a broadly similar number in 2011 and 2015.
In 2011 there were 22 by-elections in England during the January to April period, with 4 in Scotland and 3 in Wales. This compares to 15 in England but 6 in Scotland and 4 in Wales over the same period in 2015, although ahead of the anticipated General Election. At this early stage it is considered there could well be around 20 English seats contested during the January to April 2019 period with only the 1 current vacancy in Wales.
At the annual May elections in 2011 there were 23 single by-elections in England along with 25 "double" elections whereas in 2015 the corresponding numbers were 43 and 31.
