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Post by swanarcadian on Dec 13, 2018 23:19:20 GMT
What would the consequences have been if the EU referendum had gone the other way? Cameron PM for at least another two years? UKIP support still in double figures? No general election last year? What issues would have dominated the agenda without Brexit?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2018 23:32:57 GMT
Goldsmith wins the Richmond Park by-election?
I think Copeland still falls on account of the nuclear issue. Cameron would have maintained similar leads over Corbyn and the Tories would’ve still gained it.
Hilary winning if Remain wins?
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279 
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Post by Izzyeviel on Dec 14, 2018 0:46:38 GMT
Third referendum within 5-10 years after Brexiteers cry foul about project fear scaring people to vote the wrong way and because of those leaflets.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Dec 14, 2018 7:34:08 GMT
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Dec 14, 2018 8:56:52 GMT
Cameron's future becomes a more open question after far closer victory than he bargained for and Corbyn isn't challenged for the leadership.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Dec 14, 2018 9:13:26 GMT
A thought has just popped into my head: May is still Home Secretary at the start of the year and when Windrush kicks off Cameron would have no qualms about sacking her to save face.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2018 9:50:58 GMT
Cameron's future becomes a more open question after far closer victory than he bargained for and Corbyn isn't challenged for the leadership. A win is a win. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 14, 2018 10:11:04 GMT
Cameron's future becomes a more open question after far closer victory than he bargained for and Corbyn isn't challenged for the leadership. A win is a win. It's not as if "if Remain wins, then Cameron is secure" was written into the Tory Party leadership rules. Cameron would have needed 55% plus for Remain to avoid a 'lively' post-referendum atmosphere. I suspect the letters would have been in within 24 hours, Cameron probably survives, but his authority is wounded. Osborne gets shuffled to Foreign Secretary or perhaps sacked outright, Tory leadership contest by the end of 2017. If UKIP had stayed united (which is a big 'if') then poll ratings firmly in the 20s would be likely for them. Enough to be on course for a few parliamentary seats, but nothing like an SNP-style surge. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 14, 2018 11:19:57 GMT
I think there would have been the formation of an all-party grouping (a sort of ERG) to propose and campaign for a new approach within the EU with say 3-levels of membership with us in the 3rd level and the uber-federalists in the 1st level and the other euro accepters in the 2nd level. I think it would have caught on and been seen to be a way forward by the EU with far more circumscribed FOM in the 3rd level.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 14, 2018 11:46:52 GMT
I think Copeland still falls on account of the nuclear issue. Cameron would have maintained similar leads over Corbyn and the Tories would’ve still gained it. I doubt that either Jamie Reed or Tristram Hunt would have resigned as MPs in these circumstances. Despite the vocal desires of some for one, there might well have been no challenge to Corbyn's leadership after a remain vote, and any Labour leadership contest that did ultimately occur wouldn't have been anything like as embittered or visceral. Remember, it was the failure of Owen Smith's bid that ultimately prompted their exit (and there would likely have been more but for the snap election) |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Dec 25, 2018 2:17:32 GMT
Political Betting have a counter-factual based on this very question.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,774
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 25, 2018 8:23:04 GMT
Political Betting have a counter-factual based on this very question.
Interesting. Wonder what the effects would be of the Electoral Commission findings that both sides had broken the law, but in this case the winning side by less than the losing side. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 25, 2018 11:06:25 GMT
In general people don't report or make a fuss about losing side spending except either when the winning side is being attacked or losing side activists moaning about ineffective use of resources (hello "Yes to Fairer [sic] votes").
I think the government leaflet would have come in for renewed heavy attacks and there would be a stream of private members' bills trying to amend the PPERA to lock this sort of thing out for future - maybe instead an either/or booklet with a vote in Parliament to divide MPs into the two sides tomake the case?
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