Local Council by-elections 29th November

[Tony Otim]

BROMLEY LB; Kelsey & Eden Park (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BARDSLEY, Marie Elizabeth (Labour)
ENOCK, Paul Arthur (Green)
HARRIS, Christine (Conservative)
IRELAND, Julie Mary (Liberal Democrat)
REAKES, Graham Francis (UKIP)

2018: Con 2563, 2532, 2412; Lab 1579, 1462, 1358; LD 859, 675, 670; Grn 553; UKIP 214
2014: Con 2778, 2693, 2593; Lab 1191, 1024, 904; UKIP 1081; Grn 754; LD 543
2010: Con 4827, 4658, 4586; LD 2067, 2020, 1869; Lab 1396, 1352, 1253
2006: Con 2678, 2608, 2478; LD 1148, 904, 903; Ind 1054, 850, 767; Lab 504, 454, 424
2002: Con 2349, 2316, 2313; LD 1820, 1727, 1671; Lab 430, 430, 425; UKIP 157, 122

The Labour candidate has been their top candidate here in the last 2 elections.



BUCKINGHAMSHIRE CC; Aylesbury North West (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
CHRISTENSEN, Anders Carl (Liberal Democrat)
HIND, Liz (Labour)
WAITE, Ashley (Conservative)
WHEELER, Mark (Green)

2017: LD 658; Con 542; Lab 501; UKIP 436; Grn 72
2013: UKIP 939; LD 543; Lab 312; Con 302.

The Lib Dem is councillor for Gatehouse ward on Aylesbury Vale DC, which I think is in Aylesbury NW at county level.



NORTHAMPTON BC; Delapre & Briar Hill (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
DONALDSON, Denise Ann (Green)
MAHER, Michael Richard (Liberal Democrat)
McKENNA, Nicola Claire (Independent)
ROBERTS, Emma Louise (Labour)
SOAN, Daniel George (Conservative)

2015: Lab 1883, 1579, 1337; Con 1676, 1428, 1234; UKIP 1355; LD 1132, 984, 870; Northampton Save Our Public Services 462; BNP 266
2011: Lab 969, 820, 740; LD 947, 804, 771; Con 911, 846, 744; Ind 568; BNP 274; Northampton Save Our Public Services 258; Grn 250



OLDHAM MB; Failsworth East (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BARROW, Stephen (Liberal Democrat)
BATES, Warren William (Independent)
CAHILL, Antony (Conservative)
GOLDRING, Paul Francis (UKIP)
JACQUES, Elizaberth Ellen (Labour)

2018: Lab 1072; Con 575; Ind 275; Grn 70; LD 23
Feb 17 by: Lab 829; Con 360; UKIP 166; Grn 49; LD 16
2016: Lab 1410; Con 509; Grn 166; LD 62
2015: Lab 2571; UKIP 1118; Con 809; Grn 156; LD 73
2014: Lab 1055; UKIP 785; Con 284; Grn 93; LD 24
Jun 12 by: Lab 1199; UKIP 209; LD 109
2012: Lab 1585; LD 283
2011: Lab 1925; Con 674; LD 124
2010: Lab 2492; Con 1438; LD 546; Ind 235
2008: Con 1036; Lab 1028; Grn 173; LD 136
2007: Lab 1476; Con 825; Grn 154; LD 96
2006: Lab 1227; Con 806; Grn 356; LD 161
2004: Lab 1780, 1779, 1351; Con 760; Grn 561; LD 221, 209, 206

Conservative has stood here every election since 2015. Lib Dem was there candidate here in 2011 and 2012. The indy was the Green candidate back in 2004.



OXFORDSHIRE CC; Wheatley (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BEARDER, Tim (Liberal Democrat)
NIXON, Michael (Labour)
WALSH, John Patrick (Conservative)

2017: LD 1372; Con 1304; Lab 361
2013: LD 932; Con 622; UKIP 402; Lab 209; Grn 164

John Walsh is councillor for Forest Hill and Holton on South Oxfordshire DC, which is in the Wheatley county division



WARWICKSHIRE CC; Stratford North (Stratford First died)
Candidates:
ORGAN, Lynda Margaret (Conservative)
PAYNE, Joshua David Rhodes (Labour)
RILEY, John (Green)
SHORT, Juliet Dorothy (Stratford First)
SKINNER, Dominic Edmund Paul (Liberal Democrat)

2017: Stratford First 876; Con 753; LD 640; Lab 244; Grn 134

The Lib Dem was also their candidate in 2017. The Conservative is councillor for Bridgetown ward on Stratford DC. Bridgetown (I think) is in Stratford South at county level.



WELWYN & HATFIELD BC; West Welwyn (Con died)
Candidates:
CHIGWANGWA, Josh (Labour)
RAVEN, Christina Maria (Liberal Democrat)
SMITH, Paul Richard (Conservative)

2018: Con 1054; Ind 785; Lab 191
2016: Con 1011, 994, 941; Ind 896; LD 337, 250; Lab 304

The Labour candidate stood here this May. The indy was the same in both 2016 and 2018 and had been independent councillor for the ward on old boundaries from 2012 to 2016. She’s not standing again this time.

[Tony Otim]

There's just been a further by-election in Northampton identified for this week. I'll update the opening post when I get a chance later in the week.

[pw]

The Conservative Candidate stood in The old Welwyn West Ward in 2012 and lost to the independent.

[Chris from Brum]

Nov 12, 2018 21:54:19 GMT Tony Otim said:

OXFORDSHIRE CC; Wheatley (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BEARDER, Tim (Liberal Democrat)
NIXON, Michael (Labour)
WALSH, John Patrick (Conservative)

2017: LD 1372; Con 1304; Lab 361
2013: LD 932; Con 622; UKIP 402; Lab 209; Grn 164

John Walsh is councillor for Forest Hill and Holton on South Oxfordshire DC, which is in the Wheatley county division

Lib Dem candidate Tim Bearder is a son of Catherine Bearder MEP.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 14, 2018 21:03:41 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Nov 12, 2018 21:54:19 GMT Tony Otim said:

OXFORDSHIRE CC; Wheatley (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BEARDER, Tim (Liberal Democrat)
NIXON, Michael (Labour)
WALSH, John Patrick (Conservative)

2017: LD 1372; Con 1304; Lab 361
2013: LD 932; Con 622; UKIP 402; Lab 209; Grn 164

John Walsh is councillor for Forest Hill and Holton on South Oxfordshire DC, which is in the Wheatley county division

Lib Dem candidate Tim Bearder is a son of Catherine Bearder MEP.

A very regular candidate, IIRC, he's been in a few by-elections already...

[Tony Otim]

Nov 13, 2018 13:34:42 GMT Tony Otim said:

There's just been a further by-election in Northampton identified for this week. I'll update the opening post when I get a chance later in the week.

Done

[middleenglander]

I think your previous results in Buckinghamshire are for Aylesbury North and not Aylesbury North West where the by-election is.

There is another vacancy in Buckinghamshire, Totteridge & Bowerdean following the death on Wednesday of Chaudhary Ditta, East Wycombe Independent.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 23, 2018 9:09:45 GMT middleenglander said:

I think your previous results in Buckinghamshire are for Aylesbury North and not Aylesbury North West where the by-election is.

There is another vacancy in Buckinghamshire, Totteridge & Bowerdean following the death on Wednesday of Chaudhary Ditta, East Wycombe Independent.

Quite right and now corrected - thanks.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Nov 23, 2018 9:09:45 GMT middleenglander said:

There is another vacancy in Buckinghamshire, Totteridge & Bowerdean following the death on Wednesday of Chaudhary Ditta, East Wycombe Independent.

A county councillor since 2005 but he travelled across the political spectrum. Was originally in the Labour Party, but joined the Liberal Democrats in summer 2008. Then left the Lib Dems to set up East Wycombe Independents in about 2016.

Also a Wycombe councillor 2003-2015.

[Pete Whitehead]

Astonishing to see no UKIP candidate in Aylesbury NW where the party were still reasonably competitive in 2017 and won in 2013 CHILTERNS

[finsobruce]

Nov 23, 2018 9:43:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Astonishing to see no UKIP candidate in Aylesbury NW where the party were still reasonably competitive in 2017 and won in 2013 CHILTERNS

Quite so - what impact do you think it will have on the result this time? - especially given the closeness of the result last time between four parties. Should be a fascinating contest.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 23, 2018 9:55:25 GMT finsobruce said:

Nov 23, 2018 9:43:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Astonishing to see no UKIP candidate in Aylesbury NW where the party were still reasonably competitive in 2017 and won in 2013 CHILTERNS

Quite so - what impact do you think it will have on the result this time? - especially given the closeness of the result last time between four parties. Should be a fascinating contest.

I imagine it reverts to being fairly safe Lib Dem though given the nature of the area Labour must have done very well there in the 2017 general election (and historically this was a very strong area for them). Of course there are still district councillors in the Riverside ward who were elected as UKIP (but now sit as Independents - hence why ukipay is now 'chiltern')

[goose]

Nov 23, 2018 10:03:16 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 23, 2018 9:55:25 GMT finsobruce said:

Quite so - what impact do you think it will have on the result this time? - especially given the closeness of the result last time between four parties. Should be a fascinating contest.

I imagine it reverts to being fairly safe Lib Dem though given the nature of the area Labour must have done very well there in the 2017 general election (and historically this was a very strong area for them). Of course there are still district councillors in the Riverside ward who were elected as UKIP (but now sit as Independents - hence why ukipay is now 'chiltern')

Local Tories are putting in a lot of effort and think they can win it.

[timrollpickering]

Nov 12, 2018 21:54:19 GMT Tony Otim said:

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE CC; Aylesbury North West (Lib Dem resigned)

The Lib Dem is councillor for Gatehouse ward on Aylesbury Vale DC, which I think is in Aylesbury NW at county level.

Mostly. The county division consists of the parts of two wards, Gatehouse and Riverside, that are within the continuous urban Aylesbury itself. The division boundary is the River Thame, beyond this Gatehouse also includes the Buckingham Park development and Riverside includes the Berryfields and Weedon Hill development near Aylesbury Vale Parkway station.

[timmullen1]

Andrew’s Previews for this week, hopefully early enough for those entering the prediction comp: britainelects.com/2018/11/28/previews-29-nov-2018/

[samdwebber]

Kelsey and Eden Park today in LB Bromley is the first by-election in my borough since 3rd May 2012 when I was the Lib Dem candidate in the Bromley Town by-election (held on the same day as the London Mayoral and Assembly elections).

The Lib Dems have run a massive local campaign in this ward and we look forward to the result later. I note the 14 predictions on the other page!

It will be interesting to see the result as the Lib Dems have come 2nd in the previous 2 local by-elections in Bromley Town and Shortlands, and the 3rd most recent was a successful Lib Dem defence of Crystal Palace.

All Bromley by-elections going way back to the 1960s listed here for anyone interested: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bromley_London_Borough_Council_elections

[timrollpickering]

On a non-partisan sidenote, how many visiting activists have got confused about Oyster at Elmers End station? It is potentially second only to Wimbledon for being difficult to understand.

[samdwebber]

I will have to ask once the dust settles! I am a dinosaur with a paper gold card myself so no such trouble. Plenty of visitors from Southwark, Lambeth, Sutton and Hillingdon so will ask!

[timrollpickering]

I suspect the Sutton lot will be the most impacted, followed by anyone else who's come via Croydon - the problem is the tram stop is within the station rather than outside.

[ElectionMapsUK]

Maps!