|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 23, 2018 10:44:51 GMT
I lived in Bush Hill Park briefly when I first moved to London. It is quite different from the majority of Edmonton, even from lower Edmonton (the more northern part), and really feels more like a part of Southgate. The Great Cambridge Road is a major dividing line. But I think it was always part of Edmonton, from when it became a Municipal Borough in 1894. Unless I'm reading it wrong, this indicates it was part of the old Enfield borough.
The original Bush Hill Park Estate was owned by William Mellish, MP first for Great Grimsby, and then Middlesex.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 23, 2018 10:47:54 GMT
Apart from Enfield, the results weren't that outstanding for the Tories (or bad for Labour)
The lack of movement in the Westminster seat has to be set alongside the big swing towards Labour in that ward (and indeed more generally) in May.
And given that Wirral is another Labour authority known not to be massively popular, creditable result for us there.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 23, 2018 10:50:02 GMT
There ahve obviously been several sets of ward boundary changes since Enfield was created in current form. I think the bulk of the current ward was part of the old Church Street ward which was always in Edmonton and some in Bush Hill South which was likewise. There used to be a Bush Hill [North] ward which was previously in Enfield (MB) and that was a more Labour area and forms part of the Southbury ward now.
This is the direct successor to the old Village ward, one of the safest Tory wards in London in the 80s but that too had origins in possibly all three of the predecessor boroughs. My father's cousin who lived at 'Winchmore Hill' actually lived in that ward
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 23, 2018 10:53:00 GMT
And I doubt that the tediously predictable performative media "outrage" over what McDonnell said has much effect in the real world (any more so than with Laura Pidcock)
|
|
|
|
Post by londonseal80 on Nov 23, 2018 10:53:34 GMT
Bush Hill Park is an odd ward out in a solid Labour seat. Don’t have that much local knowledge of Enfield. How comes the Conservatives have held on well here whilst completely melted in the South London equivalent Lower Morden? Lower Morden may have had faster demographic change than Bush Hill Park possibly? The 2021 census may shed light. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 23, 2018 10:55:15 GMT
I lived in Bush Hill Park briefly when I first moved to London. It is quite different from the majority of Edmonton, even from lower Edmonton (the more northern part), and really feels more like a part of Southgate. The Great Cambridge Road is a major dividing line. But I think it was always part of Edmonton, from when it became a Municipal Borough in 1894. Unless I'm reading it wrong, this indicates it was part of the old Enfield borough.
The original Bush Hill Park Estate was owned by William Mellish, MP first for Great Grimsby, and then Middlesex.
If you look at the Vision of Britain map for Edmonton MB you'll see it didn't actually change. Bush Hill itself crossed the border of Edmonton, Enfield and Southgate, but Bush Hill Park ward are the streets east of the park (developed around the railway station that opened in 1880). |
|
|
|
Post by stananson on Nov 23, 2018 10:59:30 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by jacoblamsden on Nov 23, 2018 10:59:49 GMT
Bush Hill Park is an odd ward out in a solid Labour seat. Don’t have that much local knowledge of Enfield. How comes the Conservatives have held on well here whilst completely melted in the South London equivalent Lower Morden? Lower Morden may have had faster demographic change than Bush Hill Park possibly? The 2021 census may shed light. It doesn't seem that similar to Lower Morden to me. Bush Hill Park is far more consistently affluent - whilst Lower Morden is more middle-of-the-road surburbia - comparable for instance to many of the Redbridge wards which the Conservatives have struggled in over recent years. Bush Hill Park on the other hand feels much more like the kind of areas in my patch of London such as Beckenham/Bromley in which the Conservatives still do very well. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 23, 2018 11:00:15 GMT
Apart from Enfield, the results weren't that outstanding for the Tories (or bad for Labour) The lack of movement in the Westminster seat has to be set alongside the big swing towards Labour in that ward (and indeed more generally) in May. And given that Wirral is another Labour authority known not to be massively popular, creditable result for us there. Next week's contests will be more interesting and possibly more volatile.
This does not mean i will be entering the predicition competition.  |
|
|
|
Post by londonseal80 on Nov 23, 2018 11:03:28 GMT
Bush Hill Park is an odd ward out in a solid Labour seat. Don’t have that much local knowledge of Enfield. How comes the Conservatives have held on well here whilst completely melted in the South London equivalent Lower Morden? Lower Morden may have had faster demographic change than Bush Hill Park possibly? The 2021 census may shed light. It doesn't seem that similar to Lower Morden to me. Bush Hill Park is far more consistently affluent - whilst Lower Morden is more middle-of-the-road surburbia - comparable for instance to many of the Redbridge wards which the Conservatives have struggled in over recent years. Bush Hill Park on the other hand feels much more like the kind of areas in my patch of London such as Beckenham/Bromley in which the Conservatives still do very well. Thanks for the comparison cheers, I just meant similar in terms of the one Con ward in a safe Labour seat. |
|
|
|
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 23, 2018 11:04:16 GMT
There is still some life for us in north london
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 23, 2018 11:04:25 GMT
Bush Hill Park is an odd ward out in a solid Labour seat. Don’t have that much local knowledge of Enfield. How comes the Conservatives have held on well here whilst completely melted in the South London equivalent Lower Morden? Lower Morden may have had faster demographic change than Bush Hill Park possibly? The 2021 census may shed light. It doesn't seem that similar to Lower Morden to me. Bush Hill Park is far more consistently affluent - whilst Lower Morden is more middle-of-the-road surburbia - comparable for instance to many of the Redbridge wards which the Conservatives have struggled in over recent years. Bush Hill Park on the other hand feels much more like the kind of areas in my patch of London such as Beckenham/Bromley in which the Conservatives still do very well. Quite a good comparison. (My Granny used to live in Bromley and my aunt still lives in Beckenham). |
|
|
|
Post by samdwebber on Nov 23, 2018 11:44:17 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by samdwebber on Nov 23, 2018 11:51:22 GMT
What was turnout in Bush Hill Park? Struggling to locate it here!
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 23, 2018 12:22:11 GMT
really? I live 70 miles away from Enfield so ive no clue what local factors were in play. If youve some local insight please share I don't think that comment was specific to Enfield. So my answer is Magic Grandad. In actual fact, it is not usual for large numbers of habitual Tory voters to cross straight over to Labour - the mid 1990s were an exception there, not the norm. Of course, there used to be another party that was a reliable haven for Tories who might be feeling a bit browned off. What happened there? |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 23, 2018 13:52:23 GMT
People who switch parties because they weren't selected to fight a particular election can't have much ideological commitment in the first place. What does that say about Winston McKenzie, who ended up representing parties after being an Independent? |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 23, 2018 14:03:36 GMT
People who switch parties because they weren't selected to fight a particular election can't have much ideological commitment in the first place. What does that say about Winston McKenzie, who ended up representing parties after being an Independent? Nothing that hasn't already been said about him I suspect.  |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Nov 23, 2018 17:11:00 GMT
What was turnout in Bush Hill Park? Struggling to locate it here! 27.9% |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Nov 23, 2018 17:40:58 GMT
Enfield, Bush Hill Park - Conservative hold - amended for Green 127 not 123| Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Conservative | 1,540 | 52.4% | +13.0% | +12.7% | +20.0% | +21.1% | Labour | 828 | 28.2% | -9.0% | -8.3% | -1.2% | +0.4% | Liberal Democrat | 313 | 10.7% | +1.0% | +0.8% | +1.9% | +1.3% | Green | 127 | 4.3% | -6.4% | -6.6% | -7.7% | -8.6% | Women's Equality | 79 | 2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent | 50 | 1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
|
| -2.9% | -2.9% | -17.3% | -18.6% | Total votes | 2,937 |
| 59% | 60% | 57% | 61% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 11% / 10½% since May and ~ 10½% since 2014 Council now 46 Labour, 15 Conservative, 2 Independent Westminster, Lancaster Gate - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | Conservative | 913 | 47.2% | -0.4% | -1.5% | -4.8% | -4.1% | Labour | 684 | 35.4% | -0.5% | -1.0% | +14.4% | +13.4% | Liberal Democrat | 275 | 14.2% | -2.3% | -0.7% | +1.3% | +2.3% | Green | 62 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -10.8% | -11.7% | Total votes | 1,934 |
| 70% | 75% | 80% | 85% |
Swing little change since May but Conservative to Labour ~ 9½% / 8¾% since 2014 Council now 41 Conservative, 19 Labour Windsor & Maidenhead, Datchet - Conservative hold - amended for Labour 121 not 151| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 525 | 56.0% | -3.0% | -3.1% | +4.1% | +3.0% | Flood Prevention | 223 | 23.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 121 | 12.9% | -8.5% | -9.1% | +0.0% | -0.7% | Liberal Democrat | 48 | 5.1% | -14.5% | -13.8% | -6.9% | -5.3% | Green | 21 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
|
|
|
| -23.2% | -22.9% | Total votes | 938 |
| 38% | 39% | 52% | 55% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 50 Conservative, 2 Resident , 2 Borough First, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat Wirral, Upton - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 1,490 | 61.3% | +3.2% | +0.4% | -1.0% | +12.5% | Conservative | 705 | 29.0% | +0.4% | +4.3% | +8.0% | +9.8% | Green | 151 | 6.2% | -0.5% | -0.8% | +2.6% | +1.0% | Liberal Democrat | 83 | 3.4% | -0.8% | -1.2% | +0.4% | +0.5% | TUSC |
|
| -2.3% | -2.6% |
|
| UKIP |
|
|
|
| -9.9% | -23.8% | Total votes | 2,429 |
| 62% | 67% | 28% | 61% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 1.4% since May and 2014 but Labour to Conservative 2% since 2016 and 4½% since 2015 Council now 37 Labour, 21 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent, 1 Green
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 24, 2018 10:58:01 GMT
And their 2018 steering committee election results feature a couple of men (neither of whom got elected) : Is it me or are they using FPTP for internal elections? Given that the WEP often appears on lists of election system change supporters, will we be hearing anything about their own use as a reason or will it be as ignored as Ukip's? And some parties support FPTP for Westminster elections but use a different voting method internally. I don't see any inconsistency personally. |
|
