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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 8, 2018 23:44:06 GMT
HARLOW Bush Fair
Joseph Michael Dunne (Labour Party) 543
Andreea Iulia Hardware (The Conservative Party Candidate) 460
Anita Long (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 103
Nicholas Taylor (Harlow Alliance Party) 63
Lesley Anne Rideout (Liberal Democrats) 39
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2018 23:47:40 GMT
that's a pretty poor showing for the Tories Agreed- quite a bit worse than any of the prediction panel were expecting, and particularly on such a low poll, so the absolute numbers are particularly bad. Maybe reflecting national position? the Tory vote is prodominately made up of leave voters but leave towns in the South don't seem to follow that trend. Medway & Thanet will be facinating to watch next year |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2018 23:58:58 GMT
Labour HOLD Dormers Wells (Ealing)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2018 0:08:56 GMT
Dormers Wells (Ealing):
Lab: 1,868
Con: 429
LD: 188
Grn: 106
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2018 0:17:16 GMT
Dormers Wells (Ealing): Lab: 1,868 Con: 429 LD: 188 Grn: 106 Lab 72.1% Con 16.6% LD 7.3% Grn: 4.1% |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 9, 2018 0:25:37 GMT
Pretty boring night. No real surprises.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 9, 2018 0:48:38 GMT
Ealing, Dormers Wells - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Labour | 1,868 | 72.1% | +2.9% | +1.6% | -3.9% | -5.8% | Conservative | 429 | 16.6% | +0.7% | +1.2% | +0.5% | +1.2% | Liberal Democrat | 188 | 7.3% | +2.7% | +3.6% | -0.7% | +0.5% | Green | 106 | 4.1% | -3.2% | -3.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Polish Pride |
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| -3.1% | -2.9% |
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| Total votes | 2,591 |
| 62% | 65% | 64% | 66% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 1% / ¼% since May but Labour to Conservative ~ 2¼% / 3½% since 2014 Council now 57 Labour, 8 Conservative. 4 Liberal Democrat Harlow, Bush Fair - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 543 | 45.0% | +0.0% | -1.7% | +5.6% | +9.3% | Conservative | 460 | 38.1% | -0.8% | +16.4% | +6.0% | +21.3% | UKIP | 103 | 8.5% | -2.5% | -16.6% | -15.4% | -29.7% | Harlow Alliance | 63 | 5.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 39 | 3.2% | -1.8% | -3.3% | -1.4% | -2.0% | Harlow Independent |
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| -4.1% | Total votes | 1,208 |
| 74% | 71% | 34% | 62% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ ¼% since May but Labour to Conservative ~ ¼% since 2015 and, if meaningful, ~ 9% since 2016 Council now 19 Labour, 13 Conservative, 1 Vacant Harlow, Netteswell - Labour hold | Party | 2018 B votes | 2018 B share | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | | Labour | 497 | 50.2% | -13.0% | +2.5% | +6.5% | +8.5% | Conservative | 254 | 25.6% | -0.7% | +2.0% | -7.5% | +3.0% | Harlow Alliance | 99 | 10.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 98 | 9.9% | +3.6% | -13.1% | -8.5% | -21.0% | Liberal Democrat | 43 | 4.3% | +0.2% | -1.3% | -0.5% | -0.6% | Total votes | 991 |
| 64% | 63% | 30% | 56% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 6¼% since May, ¼% since 2016, 7% since 2015 and 2¾% since 2014 Council now 19 Labour, 13 Conservative, 1 Vacant Torridge, Holsworthy - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 Votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 698 | 56.4% | +11.5% | +15.7% | -3.7% | -3.8% | Independent | 314 | 25.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 151 | 12.2% | -5.3% | -6.6% | -27.8% | -27.7% | Labour | 75 | 6.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -23.7% | -25.5% |
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| Green |
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| -14.0% | -15.0% |
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| Total votes | 1,238
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| 47% | 50% | 100% | 100% |
Swing, if meaningful, Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 8½% / 11¼% since 2015 and ~ 12% since 2011
Council now 20 Conservative, 8 Independent, 3 UKIP, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Labour
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 9, 2018 1:15:56 GMT
A dismal night for Liberal Democrats. Okay, none of them seats we expected to do well, but still dismal. There will be the usual rubbish excuses from various people who should know better.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2018 1:28:01 GMT
A dismal night for Liberal Democrats. Okay, none of them seats we expected to do well, but still dismal. There will be the usual rubbish excuses from various people who should know better. To be fair, the only truly dismal result you had was Holsworthy, and that probably wasn't a reflection on the party. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 9, 2018 4:45:24 GMT
A dismal night for Liberal Democrats. Okay, none of them seats we expected to do well, but still dismal. There will be the usual rubbish excuses from various people who should know better. To be fair, the only truly dismal result you had was Holsworthy, and that probably wasn't a reflection on the party. Holsworthy was probably down to not having a local candidate in a place where such things matter a lot, so in a sense yes it does reflect on the party that they failed to come up with a candidate the electors would take seriously in the sort of place in the past they might have expected to do well. And Tony will have a long memory so is probably well aware that though the two Harlow results were to be expected in 2018 they were Lib Dem strongholds historically -i.e pre-coalition. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 9, 2018 7:47:48 GMT
To be fair, the only truly dismal result you had was Holsworthy, and that probably wasn't a reflection on the party. Holsworthy was probably down to not having a local candidate in a place where such things matter a lot, so in a sense yes it does reflect on the party that they failed to come up with a candidate the electors would take seriously in the sort of place in the past they might have expected to do well. And Tony will have a long memory so is probably well aware that though the two Harlow results were to be expected in 2018 they were Lib Dem strongholds historically -i.e pre-coalition. Holsworthy was probably, particularly where there were 2 other local candidates. Wasn’t there another local by election earlier this year in north Devon, possibly even in Torridge District, where the same thing happened? |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 9, 2018 8:21:00 GMT
Holsworthy was probably down to not having a local candidate in a place where such things matter a lot, so in a sense yes it does reflect on the party that they failed to come up with a candidate the electors would take seriously in the sort of place in the past they might have expected to do well. And Tony will have a long memory so is probably well aware that though the two Harlow results were to be expected in 2018 they were Lib Dem strongholds historically -i.e pre-coalition. Holsworthy was probably, particularly where there were 2 other local candidates. Wasn’t there another local by election earlier this year in north Devon, possibly even in Torridge District, where the same thing happened? Was that Westward Ho! ? That was December and the Indy swept everyone away there. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2018 8:40:25 GMT
Pretty boring night. No real surprises. I thought the Tories wld do better |
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Post by tonyhill on Nov 9, 2018 9:52:12 GMT
Harlow was one of the places that a member of the new generation of Liberal Party activists went to live in the early 70s. In this case it was my printing mentor David, who was one of the earliest to set up an offset litho printing plant in his garage. The success of Harlow Liberals, such as it was, depended on the Printing Society. In those days we used to have a mantra, "Political Power comes out of the barrel of a duplicator" (before small offset and after that Riso's took over). I would travel from Winchester to Harlow to get David to make plates for me, though I stopped doing that after being assaulted on the train coming back by three louts and bought my own platemaker. I think it was yellowperil who made some observations about the length of time people spend as political activists, but by the time of the Clegg betrayal in 2010 not only had the Printing Society been running for nearly 40 years, but the other parties also had their own means of communicating with the electorate so we no longer had that USP. As I said at the time, there would be no new generation with our degree of commitment to rebuild the Party after the disaster of the Coalition, and so it is proving.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 9, 2018 10:17:56 GMT
Harlow was one of the places that a member of the new generation of Liberal Party activists went to live in the early 70s. In this case it was my printing mentor David, who was one of the earliest to set up an offset litho printing plant in his garage. The success of Harlow Liberals, such as it was, depended on the Printing Society. In those days we used to have a mantra, "Political Power comes out of the barrel of a duplicator" (before small offset and after that Riso's took over). I would travel from Winchester to Harlow to get David to make plates for me, though I stopped doing that after being assaulted on the train coming back by three louts and bought my own platemaker. I think it was yellowperil who made some observations about the length of time people spend as political activists, but by the time of the Clegg betrayal in 2010 not only had the Printing Society been running for nearly 40 years, but the other parties also had their own means of communicating with the electorate so we no longer had that USP. As I said at the time, there would be no new generation with our degree of commitment to rebuild the Party after the disaster of the Coalition, and so it is proving. The Liberals famously knocked the Tories into third place in 1974 in Harlow. You wouldn't have predicted then than 9 years later the Tories would win the seat. The candidate was Basil Goldstone who stood in every election, bar two (1951 & 1955) between 1935 and 1974 in places as diverse as Petersfield, Hendon and Norfolk South. |
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 9, 2018 11:16:34 GMT
Pretty boring night. No real surprises. I thought the Tories wld do better Labour can be happy with the Harlow results given the stuff that has been going on there. And just to confirm - the winner in Bush Fair *is* male, right? Quite a few sources on social media (and our own Andrew T) were assuming "Jodi" was a woman. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 9, 2018 12:17:41 GMT
Holsworthy was probably, particularly where there were 2 other local candidates. Wasn’t there another local by election earlier this year in north Devon, possibly even in Torridge District, where the same thing happened? Was that Westward Ho! ? That was December and the Indy swept everyone away there. it was Hartland and Bradworthy on Torridge DC in July. A Con gain from LD with a local candidate v a non local one |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 9, 2018 13:51:14 GMT
Was that Westward Ho! ? That was December and the Indy swept everyone away there. it was Hartland and Bradworthy on Torridge DC in July. A Con gain from LD with a local candidate v a non local one Ah yes, but I believe in that case the candidate was only just outside the ward boundaries and perhaps the more significant issue was that the incumbent Lib Dem who had indeed been from inside the ward boundaries and had been elected the year previously in an election where the only opposition had come from the Green, and then that Lib Dem had resigned in just under a year- it was all rather odd. Another oddity I notice is that if you look at the Torridge website, this week's Holsworthy result is given, as are the 2017 Westward Ho by-election and the 2017 Hartland & Bradworthy by-election, but the July 2018 H&B result appears to me to be missing off their radar. Funny place, Torridge. |
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 9, 2018 14:13:08 GMT
Those aren’t changes from 2018 They're changes from 2016 when that particular seat was last up for election. Though as I have said before, this particular tic of Britain Elects is slightly annoying. Usually, the most recent result is the most relevant comparison. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 9, 2018 15:50:33 GMT
Yet another reason why all-out elections are better.
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