Poland

[Georg Ebner]

LocalElections were happening yesterday.

ExitPolls had PiS in front (32.3% or 33%) and far better than last time (~26.7%). But they do not really have CoalitionPartners (except local lists and perhaps Kukiz) after attacking PSL.
PO&N was polled around 27%.

PiS had hoped for Warszaw after some PO-difficulties, but this was of course illusional from the very beginning.

[Georg Ebner]

Despite strong gains, PiS won OverallMajorities in only 3 regions, in 1 the Ind. might break in their favour, in 1 PiS would need 1 defector; everywhere else PO&N, PSL, SLD have majorities.
SLD fell out of most regional assemblies, Kukiz out of all.

[Georg Ebner]

Results in the regional elections:

26.89+07.40=34.29 PiS
26.29+00.81=27.10 KO (=PO+N)
23.88 -11.75=12.13 PSL
08.79 -02.14=06.65 SLD
--------*05.65=05.65 Kukiz'15
03.89 -02.29=01.60 KorwinMikke
--------*01.58=01.58 Razem
01.57 -00.30=01.27 RN (Nat.)
--------*01.16=01.16 Zieloni (Greens)

PiS absorbed obviously large parts of the agrarian PSL. That PSL was so far everywhere in a governing coalition with PO (only the SE-edge was ruled by PiS), hurt PSL in the rural&remote areas.
PiS won finally 6 OverallMajorities of seats - that's all regions in exRussian Poland less Masovia (Warszaw) - and 1-2 in Silesia aren't out of reach for them.

[Georg Ebner]

In the regional&local elections the coalition remained dominant (achieving for the 16 regions over 51%), but PiS held up better than anticipated (34%, ConFed. 7%) and will have lost only Lódz-region (LowerSilesia won won by PiS during the last term). The PiS-coFounder stated: "News of my demise are premature"...

[johng]

Apr 8, 2024 20:20:06 GMT Georg Ebner said:

In the regional&local elections the coalition remained dominant (achieving for the 16 regions over 51%), but PiS held up better than anticipated (34%, ConFed. 7%) and will have lost only Lódz-region (LowerSilesia won won by PiS during the last term). The PiS-coFounder stated: "News of my demise are premature"...

Very much an even election and very comparable to the 2023 parliamentary results.

PiS did a bit better than expected and were the largest party, but still lost seats. I think they will take great comfort from both the strong turnout and their vote holding up well in their traditional heartlands. The government (KO, TD, and the Left) increased their vote share/ seat number on last time and got the majority of the vote, but certainly didn't wow.

Here are the results for each province from@Gust_2319 on Twitter. Of course the 2024 administrations are yet to form.

Most regions are not named after cities in their region. E.g. Lower Silesian is centred around Katowice, Lesser Poland around Krakow, Masovian around Warsaw, Pomeranian around Gdansk etc.

[Georg Ebner]

Regional electionResults:
- vote-%:



- seats (& seat-%):

[Georg Ebner]

[johng]

There have been a few polls recently on the likely candidates for next year's presidential election.

Current president Duda (PiS) has been a bit obstructive, but has played nicer with the coalition government that what might have been expected.

United Survey's results are below and they were within a point of those released by OBS last week.
Trzaskowski (Current Warsaw mayor and 2020 candidate) leads the polls with 29.6% narrowly over Morawiecki (PM 2017-2023) on 25.5%. Speaker and leader of Poland 2025 Holownia is third with 13.8 %
There are some also rans below 10% - but they could be important for the run-off as it's quite unlikely anyone will get above 50% in the first round.