Latvian parliamentary election, 2018

[therealriga]

The exit poll gives

Harmony (SC) 19.4%

Latvian Development (A/P) 13.4

Nat Alliance (N/A) 12.6

New Conservatives (JKP)  12.4

Who owns the state? (KPV) 11.5

Greens&Farmers (ZZS) 9.7

New Unity (JV) 6.9

Latvian Regional Alliance (LRA) 3.4

From the heart to Latvia (NSL) 0.4

The margin of error isn't given but would seem to be high, around 5% at least. If the final result is anything like that then it'll be an even more fractured parliament than before, with the last 2 parties exiting the parliament and Harmony, which gets more support from ethnic Russians, stuck in the same position as before: top dog but without any friends to get it past the 50-seat mark.

[Georg Ebner]

But aren't the LeftLiberals of A/P inclined to cooperate with "Harmony"?

[therealriga]

Oct 6, 2018 19:10:32 GMT Georg Ebner said:

But aren't the LeftLiberals of A/P inclined to cooperate with "Harmony"?

Possible, and also Kaimin's KPV is sufficiently distanced from the Latvian political establishment, which it regularly rails against, to be part of such a coalition, but the numbers may not be there.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 6, 2018 19:27:06 GMT therealriga said:

Oct 6, 2018 19:10:32 GMT Georg Ebner said:

But aren't the LeftLiberals of A/P inclined to cooperate with "Harmony"?

Possible, and also Kaimin's KPV is sufficiently distanced from the Latvian political establishment, which it regularly rails against, to be part of such a coalition, but the numbers may not be there.

Is Mr.Kaimin not only trying to come into contact with Mr.Trump, but also with Mr.Putin? Or is the Russian bear too toxic in Latvia?

[therealriga]

Oct 6, 2018 19:56:34 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 6, 2018 19:27:06 GMT therealriga said:

Possible, and also Kaimin's KPV is sufficiently distanced from the Latvian political establishment, which it regularly rails against, to be part of such a coalition, but the numbers may not be there.

Is Mr.Kaimin not only trying to come into contact with Mr.Trump, but also with Mr.Putin? Or is the Russian bear too toxic in Latvia?

Kaimins/KPV are just the latest in a number of populist/"plague on all your houses" parties which seem to appear every Latvian general election (New Era in 2002, Zatlers Reform party in 2011, From the Heart in 2014) with vague policies and generalistic promises to clean everything up. In 2014 From the Heart were very active on social media but no one seemed to know where the cash came from and in this part of the world, that automatically leads to a party being tarred as a Kremlin trojan. Such is the case now with KPV, but Kaimins also dodged questions on who he would do post-election deals with and on Harmony, his demands were light: them dropping the demand to continue some education in Russian language. A Harmony

[therealriga]

Part of last post cut off. I was saying that a Harmony-KPV coalition would need the support of one of the Latvian parties, which includes A/P.

The latest seat guesstimate on the media, with 90% counted was

Harmony 23
KVP 16
JKP 16
A/P 13
NA 13
ZZS 12
JV 7

With a result like that it would either have to be Harmony+KVP+A/P or everyone but the two largest.

[Georg Ebner]

How much is counted now?
The Elec. Commission doesn't provide the precincts, unfortunately.

[Georg Ebner]

18.000 votes seem to be missing:
08.000 from Riga
10.000 from the surrounding region

[jack]

I think tha the ex-pat vote is included with Riga, so nearly all in.
The 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed parties or coalitions are all new. What will they do? Harmony although the largest group represents the minority ethnic Russians and does not seem to be able to form wider coalitions.

[Georg Ebner]

4.000 votes from 1 village near Riga are missing and some 8.000 from the diaspora.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 7, 2018 2:53:07 GMT jack said:

The 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed parties or coalitions are all new. What will they do? Harmony although the largest group represents the minority ethnic Russians and does not seem to be able to form wider coalitions.

Harmony might be able to enter government: JKP split generally from NA, who will probably hate them therefore. Also questionable is, whether A/P can work together with NA.

[therealriga]

Oct 7, 2018 3:17:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 7, 2018 2:53:07 GMT jack said:

The 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed parties or coalitions are all new. What will they do? Harmony although the largest group represents the minority ethnic Russians and does not seem to be able to form wider coalitions.

Harmony might be able to enter government: JKP split generally from NA, who will probably hate them therefore. Also questionable is, whether A/P can work together with NA.

There's no love lost between JKP and NA, even though trying to distinguish policy differences between the two is like a tough game of 'spot the difference' but in the end their mutual antipathy towards the Russians and Kaimins of KPV may overcome that. I think it may be the same with A/P and NA. The former contains more former members of Vienotiba than anything else and in the end look to be the swing vote. 

I think the two things that will prove decisive are that A/P draws its votes more from ethnic Latvians and will therefore not want to jeopardise that by throwing in its lot with Harmony. Also, in a Harmony-led coalition, it would be hard for them to argue for the Prime Minister slot, whereas as the largest party in an everyone-but-Harmony-and-KPV coalition they would be in a strong position to ask for that as the price of their support.  My bet would be the latter option, with Artis Pabriks of A/P as the new prime minister, as the outgoing PM Kucinskis' Greens and Farmers had a rubbish election. 

[Georg Ebner]

Taken thankfully from www.ritvars.wordpress.com (coloured by me):

[therealriga]

Latest discussions are for a 5-party coalition of everyone except Harmony and ZZS in which Bordans of JKP would be prime minister. Doesn't sound the most stable arrangement even if it comes off.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 15, 2018 10:19:20 GMT therealriga said:

Latest discussions are for a 5-party coalition of everyone except Harmony and ZZS in which Bordans of JKP would be prime minister. Doesn't sound the most stable arrangement even if it comes off.

I read, that Bordans himself came up with this idea - even including a CabinetList!:

JKP: PM, HomeAffairs, Environment & LocalAffairs
FOR!: Finance, SocialAffairs, Health
KPV: Economy, Traffic
NA: Education&Science, Culture, AgriCulture
NewUnity: Defence, Justice
Ind.: ForeignAffairs

But is this more than his private dream - do the others consider this, too?

[jack]

Seems like the New Conservatives have blown chances of Prime Minister role with their refusal to work with fellow right wingers Greens & Farmers Party. Favorite now looks like the MEP Artis Pabriks from the liberal ALDE affiliated Development/For! English language info at eng.lsm.lv/politics/politics/

Politics in #Latvia does not seem to be left - right. It is nationalist Russian - Latvian & also establishment - reform anti corruption

[therealriga]

Oct 19, 2018 23:16:49 GMT jack said:

Seems like the New Conservatives have blown chances of Prime Minister role with their refusal to work with fellow right wingers Greens & Farmers Party. Favorite now looks like the MEP Artis Pabriks from the liberal ALDE affiliated Development/For! English language info at eng.lsm.lv/politics/politics/

Politics in #Latvia does not seem to be left - right. It is nationalist Russian - Latvian & also establishment - reform anti corruption

As I understand it, ZZS (Greens and Farmers) and National Alliance have an unofficial mutual assistance pact under which either they are both in government or neither. The same applies to Development/For! and New Vienotiba. That limits coalition options further.

New Conservative leader Bordans' stubborn insistence that ZZS be excluded means that the most likely option is now everyone but Harmony and New Conservatives.

Latvian politics aren't left/right. It's as you say, though personalities also play a large part, with friendships and rivalries often trumping ideology. The link-up of Regional Alliance and Development/For! in the past is an example of that.

[therealriga]

The new Saeima sat for the first day today. There was already controversy with one of Harmony's members, Julia Stepanenko, breaking away and announcing she would sit as an independent in future, though taking the Harmony line on most votes. She's a classic example of the problems that Harmony have in breaking out of the Russian voter base ghetto and repositioning itself as a liberal-minded social democratic party. She's taken a more Kremlin type line on social issues, decrying what she sees as an overemphasis on "minority rights", vocally opposing gay rights and sponsoring "Clause 28" style legislation which would prohibit teaching about gay lifestyles in schools.

[Adam in Stroud]

Nov 6, 2018 21:32:36 GMT therealriga said:

The new Saeima sat for the first day today. There was already controversy with one of Harmony's members, Julia Stepanenko, breaking away and announcing she would sit as an independent in future, though taking the Harmony line on most votes. She's a classic example of the problems that Harmony have in breaking out of the Russian voter base ghetto and repositioning itself as a liberal-minded social democratic party. She's taken a more Kremlin type line on social issues, decrying what she sees as an overemphasis on "minority rights", vocally opposing gay rights and sponsoring "Clause 28" style legislation which would prohibit teaching about gay lifestyles in schools.

You have to love a party called "Harmony" where one of them falls out with the rest before the chamber even sits.

Objecting to minority rights for a member of a party with a Russian (ethnic minority) base is interesting too.

[therealriga]

Nov 6, 2018 22:35:11 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Objecting to minority rights for a member of a party with a Russian (ethnic minority) base is interesting too.

True, but that's not unusual, is it? In Britain, I strongly suspect that ethnic minorities are more hostile to LGBT issues than the population at large. In Latvia, both communities are equal opportunity haters and it's far more socially conservative than the west. 

Since Harmony displaced "For Human Rights in a United Latvia" (PCTVL) as the main party for ethnic Russians about a decade ago, they've been trying to broaden their voter base to attract ethnic Latvians, but the only time they ever managed it was in the 2013 locals when they added a fair bit of the grey vote. So they're stuck with the dilemma that if they push Russian issues, they'll get negligible support from Latvians, whereas if they push social liberalism more, they'll alienate a chunk of their Russian base.

Two other problems for them. The first is that PCTVL were expected to wither and die this decade, but they haven't. They sprung a surprise by holding their Euro seat in 2014 and have doubled their vote share in the last 2 generals; the latest one giving them state funding for the first time since 2010. They renamed themselves to Latvian Russian Union (LRU) and having been making hay by focusing on the language of instruction in schools issue. The nightmare for Harmony is that LRU pass 5% and re-enter parliament (LRU are now at 3.2%). Second problem is that a bit of loser fatigue has started to set in. Harmony have been the largest party at the last three generals but other parties just say "whatever" and refuse to work with them, so their vote has been trickling away as people start to see a vote for them as a waste of time.