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Post by andrew111 on Oct 19, 2018 10:21:47 GMT
So the narrowly unsuccessful Green in Oxon could have been a Labour MP in a somewhat alternate history? Rochdale was one of our more surprising misses in 1992. It was. Looking at the 2017 result I am re-astonished at the collapse in the Lib Dem vote in this constituency over recent parliamentary contests. I am surprised they beat Danzcuk so convincingly! I don't think the revelations about Cyril Smith have helped the Lib Dems in Rochdale. What is interesting in 2017 is how the collapse of UKIP went so equally to Lab and Con (and for sure many of those people have voted Lib Dem in the past too) |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 19, 2018 10:30:25 GMT
DUP leading UUP in Carrick Castle after two eliminations (Indy and D&V). It will probably depend on how the Alliance votes redistribute on elimination - DUP are 470 ahead but there are up to 645 Alliance votes available. 21.8% turnout.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 19, 2018 10:32:26 GMT
It was. Looking at the 2017 result I am re-astonished at the collapse in the Lib Dem vote in this constituency over recent parliamentary contests. I am surprised they beat Danzcuk so convincingly! I don't think the revelations about Cyril Smith have helped the Lib Dems in Rochdale.And this despite many of his misdemeanours having been committed when he was a Labour politician! Labour have had very sloping shoulders about this, and should not have been allowed to shrug it all off. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 19, 2018 10:33:29 GMT
DUP leading UUP in Carrick Castle after two eliminations (Indy and D&V). It will probably depend on how the Alliance votes redistribute on elimination - DUP are 470 ahead but there are up to 645 Alliance votes available. From BBC Northern Ireland Political Reporter, Jayne McCormack: Quota is 1425 and no candidate reached that on the first count, likely DUP candidate will get over the line as he’s only 300 or so votes away from it t.co/Ju2fJDeZ0tStage 2 results - DUP candidate now just shy of the quota by about 100 or so votes t.co/PGV41gDqVV |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 19, 2018 10:41:29 GMT
DUP leading UUP in Carrick Castle after two eliminations (Indy and D&V). It will probably depend on how the Alliance votes redistribute on elimination - DUP are 470 ahead but there are up to 645 Alliance votes available. From BBC Northern Ireland Political Reporter, Jayne McCormack: Quota is 1425 and no candidate reached that on the first count, likely DUP candidate will get over the line as he’s only 300 or so votes away from it t.co/Ju2fJDeZ0tStage 2 results - DUP candidate now just shy of the quota by about 100 or so votes t.co/PGV41gDqVVDUP has been the main beneficiary of transfers from D&V, I think. I wouldn't be so sure that they'll get so many from Alliance, who would be more likely to transfer to UUP, if they transfer at all. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2018 10:44:00 GMT
It was. Looking at the 2017 result I am re-astonished at the collapse in the Lib Dem vote in this constituency over recent parliamentary contests. I am surprised they beat Danzcuk so convincingly! I don't think the revelations about Cyril Smith have helped the Lib Dems in Rochdale. What is interesting in 2017 is how the collapse of UKIP went so equally to Lab and Con ( and for sure many of those people have voted Lib Dem in the past too) Oh, beyond any doubt. It really was a "perfect storm" for LibDems here, the Smith revelations combining with the general post-coalition crash of support in Gtr Manchester. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 19, 2018 10:56:26 GMT
From BBC Northern Ireland Political Reporter, Jayne McCormack: Quota is 1425 and no candidate reached that on the first count, likely DUP candidate will get over the line as he’s only 300 or so votes away from it t.co/Ju2fJDeZ0tStage 2 results - DUP candidate now just shy of the quota by about 100 or so votes t.co/PGV41gDqVVDUP has been the main beneficiary of transfers from D&V, I think. I wouldn't be so sure that they'll get so many from Alliance, who would be more likely to transfer to UUP, if they transfer at all. DUP said to have won, no final figures yet. First prefs were:
DUP - 38.82% (+11.6%) UUP - 23.45% (+7.25%) APNI - 19.52% (+5%) DVP - 15.72% (n/a) IND - 2.49% (n/a) No UKIP, TUV, PUP or well known IND as before.
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 19, 2018 11:14:37 GMT
First round:
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 19, 2018 11:14:54 GMT
Winner:
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 19, 2018 11:16:38 GMT
Apparently he’s the son-in-law of South Antrim MP Paul Girvan. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 19, 2018 14:31:48 GMT
I see from Mark Pack's site that the LD in Oxon endorsed the Green, on the basis that a strong opposition to the Conservatives was needed and Labour was propping them up. (No idea what the basis for that was, if any.)
Interesting, though.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 19, 2018 14:44:58 GMT
I voted for David Williams in 1992, and he was (and probably still is) a thoroughly decent man.The Rochdale situation for the Liberal Democrats fell apart with the Coalition after 2010, but the decline of their position was a little earlier than that, probably covered up by the Muslim opposition to the Iraq War. Without this, I think Lorna Fitzsimmons would have held the seat comfortably for Labour.
The Lib Dem vote in Rochdale Borough has been largely an anti-Labour one and much of their support was lent by Conservative-inclined voters. The Cyril Smith scandal has highlighted the decline, but it is not too different to the Lib Dem decline in other former urban seats.
The main change has been the swing of the Muslim vote solidly to Labour, whereas it used to be split according to mosques.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 19, 2018 14:45:16 GMT
I see from Mark Pack's site that the LD in Oxon endorsed the Green, on the basis that a strong opposition to the Conservatives was needed and Labour was propping them up. (No idea what the basis for that was, if any.) Interesting, though. In which case the sensible thing to do would have been to stand aside entirely (though I don't on the whole approve of attempted stitch-ups like these), rather than still be on the ballot, collecting a derisory number of votes. And in any case, it didn't work. Voters don't like being told what to do by the parties. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 19, 2018 16:03:06 GMT
I am surprised they beat Danzcuk so convincingly! I don't think the revelations about Cyril Smith have helped the Lib Dems in Rochdale. What is interesting in 2017 is how the collapse of UKIP went so equally to Lab and Con ( and for sure many of those people have voted Lib Dem in the past too) Oh, beyond any doubt. It really was a "perfect storm" for LibDems here, the Smith revelations combining with the general post-coalition crash of support in Gtr Manchester. And yet Smith's asbestos dealings never seemed to cause any bother for him. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 19, 2018 16:04:08 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 19, 2018 16:24:02 GMT
I see from Mark Pack's site that the LD in Oxon endorsed the Green, on the basis that a strong opposition to the Conservatives was needed and Labour was propping them up. (No idea what the basis for that was, if any.) Interesting, though. Wish I had known that before making my entry to the prediction competition. Might not have stopped me forecasting the Green to win, though I think maybe such endorsements are counter-productive, but might at least stopped me expecting the Lib Dem to manage a respectable third place. |
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Post by froome on Oct 19, 2018 17:29:18 GMT
I voted for David Williams in 1992, and he was ( and probably still is) a thoroughly decent man.The Rochdale situation for the Liberal Democrats fell apart with the Coalition after 2010, but the decline of their position was a little earlier than that, probably covered up by the Muslim opposition to the Iraq War. Without this, I think Lorna Fitzsimmons would have held the seat comfortably for Labour. The Lib Dem vote in Rochdale Borough has been largely an anti-Labour one and much of their support was lent by Conservative-inclined voters. The Cyril Smith scandal has highlighted the decline, but it is not too different to the Lib Dem decline in other former urban seats. The main change has been the swing of the Muslim vote solidly to Labour, whereas it used to be split according to mosques. He is. |
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Post by lbarnes on Oct 19, 2018 21:34:04 GMT
I voted for David Williams in 1992, and he was (and probably still is) a thoroughly decent man.The Rochdale situation for the Liberal Democrats fell apart with the Coalition after 2010, but the decline of their position was a little earlier than that, probably covered up by the Muslim opposition to the Iraq War. Without this, I think Lorna Fitzsimmons would have held the seat comfortably for Labour. The Lib Dem vote in Rochdale Borough has been largely an anti-Labour one and much of their support was lent by Conservative-inclined voters. The Cyril Smith scandal has highlighted the decline, but it is not too different to the Lib Dem decline in other former urban seats. The main change has been the swing of the Muslim vote solidly to Labour, whereas it used to be split according to mosques. He must be a different David Williams to the one my grandparents in law lived near to. He didn't have an honest bone in his body. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2018 10:19:05 GMT
I see from Mark Pack's site that the LD in Oxon endorsed the Green, on the basis that a strong opposition to the Conservatives was needed and Labour was propping them up. ( No idea what the basis for that was, if any.) Interesting, though. Apart from the "obvious" Brexit angle, there appears to be a meme going in local LibDem/Green circles that Labour are pally with the Tories on Oxfordshire CC. No idea how (if at all) true this actually is, obviously. |
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Post by therealriga on Oct 20, 2018 13:14:45 GMT
DUP leading UUP in Carrick Castle after two eliminations (Indy and D&V). It will probably depend on how the Alliance votes redistribute on elimination - DUP are 470 ahead but there are up to 645 Alliance votes available. 21.8% turnout. A rarity this. First local by-election in NI since 2010 when they set co-option as the default. In this case it was because it was an independent. |
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