1975 UK general election

[greenhert]

What if Edward Heath had waited until 1975 to call a general election and had never called an early election in February 1974?

It is widely regarded in psephology that Mr Heath made a critical mistake by calling that early general election. On the other hand, waiting until 1975 would have given the Liberals under Jeremy Thorpe more time to find candidates and build up support, thus cutting into the Conservative and Labour votes even further than in February 1974.

What is your opinion?

[Deleted]

Similar result to Feb 1974 but Labour with more seats owing to more Liberals and fewer Tories.

[Deleted]

Part of me is inclined to believe the Conservatives may have fared better, as we now know the electorate don't like opportunistic snap elections very much; and may therefore have been more inclined to stick with Heath. On the other hand, I consider Heath to be the worst Conservative PM of the 20th Century and he lost three out of four of the elections he fought, so he could easily have lost again.

Also the Liberals lost seats and vote share in October 1974, so it's not easy to say whether they would necessarily have made further gains in a hypothetical 1975 election.

[pragmaticidealist]

Sept 26, 2018 20:04:08 GMT Sandy said:

Part of me is inclined to believe the Conservatives may have fared better, as we now know the electorate don't like opportunistic snap elections very much; and may therefore have been more inclined to stick with Heath. On the other hand, I consider Heath to be the worst Conservative PM of the 20th Century and he lost three out of four of the elections he fought, so he could easily have lost again.

Also the Liberals lost seats and vote share in October 1974, so it's not easy to say whether they would necessarily have made further gains in a hypothetical 1975 election.

1966 is an obvious exception of course.

[Adam in Stroud]

Most of what I know about 74 is based on Vernon Bogdanor's Gresham College lecture, but AIUI the election was a response to the failure of Heath's Free Collective Bargaining approach to pay in an era of big nationalised industries and the oil crisis. I can't see that problem going away, nor can I see his pay policy being accepted by the unions.

Wilson saw the basic problem during the election campaign so I'm sure he would have over a longer period - I think he'd have a had more time to articulate his claim that if you wanted a govt to hammer out a pay policy with the unions Labour was a better bet, and I think he'd have won a straight majority in 1975. Not sure where it would have left the Liberals, I think we might have done quite well in Conservative-facing seats where we'd have been an option to vote against Heath for people who couldn't stick voting Labour (and probably thus helped Wilson.)

Perhaps the big difference would be that when the peak of inflation hit in 1975  Heath would have been PM and it would have been harder for Thatcher to brand Labour as the party of irresponsible spending leading to inflation - folk memory would have been of the Tories as the party of inflation and industrial strife.

[johnloony]

No February 1974 election would mean a clear Labour majority in 1975. The increasing difficulties of the Labour government in 1978-79 (Winter of Discontent etc.) would mean no 1979 election (no chance of a Labour victory, so no early election before the last possible date), so Mrs Thatcher would not have come to power until 1980. Her difficulties in getting established in 1979-81 would have been delayed correspondingly until 1980-82; she might have been weaker or less certain in knowing how to respond to the Falklands invasion.

For the same reasons, the Falklands invasion itself might also have been delayed by a year.

[timrollpickering]

Sept 26, 2018 20:30:07 GMT pragmaticidealist said:

Sept 26, 2018 20:04:08 GMT Sandy said:

Part of me is inclined to believe the Conservatives may have fared better, as we now know the electorate don't like opportunistic snap elections very much; and may therefore have been more inclined to stick with Heath. On the other hand, I consider Heath to be the worst Conservative PM of the 20th Century and he lost three out of four of the elections he fought, so he could easily have lost again.

Also the Liberals lost seats and vote share in October 1974, so it's not easy to say whether they would necessarily have made further gains in a hypothetical 1975 election.

1966 is an obvious exception of course.

In 1966 I think the electorate was sufficiently aware of the small Labour majority and the problems it had getting legislation through to respect the government was seeking a strong parliamentary position.

In February 1974 Heath was basically saying "I don't know if I'm running the country, can you tell me if I am", which isn't the easiest of grounds.

In 2017 I don't think voters saw the parliamentary position as a justification or indeed saw Brexit as threatened (Article 50 had been triggered). And it's hard for a party to say the opposition can't be let near government in a snap election - there's an easier way to stop that by not having one in the first place.