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Post by russthomas on Jul 1, 2013 7:54:15 GMT
Non EU immigrants (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) have been in the UK for many decades, most have native born children, almost all are registered to vote, and are organized to do so, Anti-UKIP, to try to offset some of the irrational xenophobia. Lots of these live in inner cities such as London, Manchester, Bradford, Leicester, Luton, Reading, Slough - these will be slim picking for UKIP in the next round of Council Elections. Whilst you hanker on about the imagined xenophobia, you might be surprised that most non-EU immigrants that I have canvassed do not feel UKIP is racist or xenophobic and in large measure tend to support us - 18 out of 23 people I canvassed (OK that's a very small sample but...) were already inclined towards voting for us. I don't know yet how many of them actually voted, but 2 of my nominations were from Asian women. I wouldn't be at all surprised that you, a plain speaking common sense individual meeting Non EU immigrants face to face, get a positive response. But this is irrelevant, and by no means the ONLY factor in operation.. What matters primarily is the belief that is often promulgated by the local press media, that many if not most, UKIP candidates are racists in suits. People vote for those who say what they want to hear, not what is rational truth. In a competitive election, where emotions are whipped up, the Asian community will be encouraged by their elders to FIGHT RAMPANT RACISM, not mild xenophobia. Younger Asians are fairly obedient to the views of their elders and so will vote Anti-UKIP to a degree sufficient to offset the Pro-UKIP vote, in most inner city areas. There are over 80 such constituencies that typically have around 28% Non EU immigrants in the electorate, (often plus a 10% Old EU population, mostly Irish and German, who are UKIP neutral), and have less than 14% of the Non EU immigrants count as New EU immigrants (i.e about 4% of electorate), that tend to provoke some UKIP support. These places are also low in the UKIP's natural support base, the over 55s, male. Many are also natural Labour strongholds, with high deprivation factors and benefit dependants. It is ALL these raw numbers in combination that will act to give UKIP a hard time winning seats in such constituencies. You can take some heart from all this ... a popular myth is that UKIP support is very evenly spread, so very few places have sufficient support to vote a UKIP candidate in. These statistics show that this is not so. A 20 % GB poll means about 200 seats with 30% +, 200 seats with less than 8%, and the rest somewhere in between. 32% is usually sufficient for a win. 140 seats makes UKIP the opposition. |
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Post by Devonian on Jul 1, 2013 15:47:35 GMT
Younger Asians are fairly obedient to the views of their elders That's a pretty massive generalisation. Any other massive generalisations you'd care to make about Younger Asians? Interesting claim. could you provide evidence for it? |
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Post by russthomas on Jul 1, 2013 16:41:36 GMT
Younger Asians are fairly obedient to the views of their elders That's a pretty massive generalisation. Any other massive generalisations you'd care to make about Younger Asians? Interesting claim. could you provide evidence for it? If you ever learn to get past baby questions, I would love to try to educate you. But for now, why don't you ask Mummy and Daddy why it is naughty to annoy grown ups with really stupid questions. They will be able to find more suitable places for you to learn how not to be quite so rude all the time - Noddy and Big Ears Go to Toy Town is very good, or if you prefer something really suitable for your intellect level, there are sites that talk about Flat Earth, or Creationism, or The Tooth Fairy. Enjoy. |
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Post by Devonian on Jul 1, 2013 17:03:26 GMT
That's a pretty massive generalisation. Any other massive generalisations you'd care to make about Younger Asians? Interesting claim. could you provide evidence for it? If you ever learn to get past baby questions, I would love to try to educate you. But for now, why don't you ask Mummy and Daddy why it is naughty to annoy grown ups with really stupid questions. They will be able to find more suitable places for you to learn how not to be quite so rude all the time - Noddy and Big Ears Go to Toy Town is very good, or if you prefer something really suitable for your intellect level, there are sites that talk about Flat Earth, or Creationism, or The Tooth Fairy. Enjoy. You have presented a theory. Your theory is that the most important demographic factor for determining if a seat can be won by UKIP is the ratio between the percentage of new EU immigrants and the percentage of non EU immigrants (and their neighbours apparently for reasons you still haven't attempted to explain). Its quite natural that if you present such a theory you can be expected to be questioned on the basis of the theory and the assumptions you use in your justification for the theory. You cannot make assertions without providing any supporting evidence (e.g. Irish and German are UKIP neutral) and then not expect to be questioned on it. Responding to such questions with a hysterical rant doesn't make your theory any more convincing. |
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Post by Zardoz on Jul 1, 2013 19:42:53 GMT
Younger Asians are fairly obedient to the views of their elders They weren't very obedient in Bradford West, were they? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 13, 2013 17:42:19 GMT
Latest:
"Opinium/Observer poll shows Labour increase lead to 11%. Lab 38, Con 27, Ukip 19, Lib Dem 6. So reverse of union bounce for Cameron/Crosby."
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Jul 13, 2013 18:43:56 GMT
Dreadful polling night for LDs - and far less bad than I feared for UKIP.
Labour probably happy
Tories not so happy
UKIP relieved
LDs back on a downward plunge...
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 27, 2013 17:19:24 GMT
Lab 39% (+1)
Con 28% (+1%)
UKIP 16% (-3%)
LD 8% (+2%)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 28, 2013 10:38:00 GMT
The clue there may have been in "movements" plural - UKIP losing support to all three "old" parties would justify such terminology!
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 10, 2013 16:49:16 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 17:19:27 GMT
Toby Helm @tobyhelm
Labour lead stuck at 7% in Opinium/Observer poll. L 36 n/c. Tories 29 n/c. Ukip 18 +1, Lib Dem 8 -1. Mili personal rating down again to -31.
Always a spin for the Observer eh ? Stuck at 7 is fine for us ...
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 24, 2013 21:21:19 GMT
Toby Helm @tobyhelm Labour lead stuck at 7% in Opinium/Observer poll. L 36 n/c. Tories 29 n/c. Ukip 18 +1, Lib Dem 8 -1. Mili personal rating down again to -31. Always a spin for the Observer eh ? Stuck at 7 is fine for us ... Changes since 2010: Lab: +6% Con: -8% UKIP: +13% LD: -16% Those figures are a bit misleading of course because in reality not many voters will have swung directly from LD to UKIP. |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 8, 2013 8:12:16 GMT
Labour 35
Conservative 30
UKIP 17
Lib Dem 7
Others 11
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2013 18:18:45 GMT
Toby Helm @tobyhelm
Op/Obs poll. Lab 7 point lead. Lab 36, Tories 29, Ukip 17 (taken before chaos conf) Lib Dems 7 (no bounce). E Mil ratings pretty dire
some are obsessed with leadership ratings but seems to make little difference does it.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 21, 2013 18:46:39 GMT
Well, no other pollsters seem to be backing up YouGov's recent turn so far.....
Re the discussion on the other thread - could this be because YouGov are now the only pollster to give serious weight (figuratively and literally) to newspaper readership?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2013 18:52:59 GMT
more people started to read the Mail or Sun or just the sample changed ?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2013 17:25:47 GMT
Toby Helm @tobyhelm
Labour 5% lead in post conf Opinium/Observer poll. Lab 36 n/c, Tories 31 (+2) Ukip 15 (-2), Lib Dems 7. Taken immediately after Tory conf.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 19, 2013 17:37:10 GMT
Lab 38 (+2) Con 27 (-2) Ukip 17 (+2), Lib Dems 9 (+2)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2013 17:48:31 GMT
Disaster for Ed has lead is not 25% (c) some idiots
I presume that UKIP are prompted for and hence the much higher level of support than others we have seen.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 19, 2013 18:47:19 GMT
Disaster for Ed has lead is not 25% (c) some idiots I presume that UKIP are prompted for and hence the much higher level of support than others we have seen. As far as I'm aware Survation are the only ones who do a first stage prompt for UKIP. Looking at the data on the last Opinium poll they were not prompted for in the first stage. |
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