Kantar/TNS/BMRB

[The Bishop]

Yes, but what we (ahem) don't know is how many of those "don't knows" would revert to the Tories at an actual GE.

A widespread presumption seems to be that nearly all will, but as I said this is actually far from guaranteed.

[mattbewilson]

This poll doesn't seem unlikely though. Labour high 30s low 40s. Tories low to mid 30s

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jan 27, 2022 12:02:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, but what we don't know is how many of those "don't knows" will revert to the Tories at the next GE.

A widespread presumption seems to be that nearly all will, but as I said this is actually far from guaranteed.

It's what I suspect might happen but as you indicate time will tell.

[The Bishop]

One reason for the scale of Labour's defeat last time was its previous voters just not turning out.

There were actually more of these than the much more hyped direct to Tory switchers, and they were the main reason why turnout was down on 2017 overall.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jan 27, 2022 12:15:26 GMT The Bishop said:

One reason for the scale of Labour's defeat last time was its previous voters just not turning out.

There were actually more of these than the much more hyped direct to Tory switchers, and they were the main reason why turnout was down on 2017 overall.

Cant say much about turnout might need to refer to the Nuffield study but i was one of those much hyped switchers!

[mattbewilson]

Jan 27, 2022 12:02:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, but what we (ahem) don't know is how many of those "don't knows" would revert to the Tories at an actual GE.

A widespread presumption seems to be that nearly all will, but as I said this is actually far from guaranteed.

I think generally when we canvass a good rule of the thumb is if they say don't know and then we  ask who have voted for before, if it's not us it won't be us next time. People will often say don't know when they don't want to tell you.  

[mattbewilson]

the scale of the defeat was down distribution of votes. Labour got 33% of the vote which was more than in 2 of the previous 3 GE. Labour also won more seats in England than it won during the 80s when Kinnock was rebuilding Labour. But Labour stacks up huge majorities in the big cities. Labour won Bristol North West, Cardiff North, Reading East, Canterbury, Hallam, etc. They didn't hold any of those seats five years ago. But being an party of the urban middle class means you're reach is limited. There aren't enough Hallam's out there to win an election

[Sibboleth]

Generally speaking people overestimate the stability of the electorate - there are always people who vote in one election and not the next one and vice versa. What damaged Labour a lot in 2019 was that many of the people who sat out were people who are ordinarily reliable supporters. If people like that sit out an election, it's reasonable to assume that they will probably return if the reasons for them not voting are no longer relevant. This is not a safe assumption to make about people who are less political and less partisan.

[Sibboleth]

Jan 27, 2022 12:53:09 GMT mattbewilson said:

the scale of the defeat was down distribution of votes.

To an extent but not in quite the way you mean and also not really. The scale of the defeat was mostly down to trailing by 12pts nationally - that's a hammering, no matter. This was amplified by the fact that the Labour vote was more evenly distributed than normal in most of the country (reflective of the odd combination that the party was unpopular with sections of its usual vote while also 'benefiting' from it being an issue election: the latter factor o/c also being responsible for good performances in university constituencies etc), which is very bad news if you're trailing by 12pts and the electoral system is FPTP.

[Merseymike]

Jan 27, 2022 16:16:41 GMT Sibboleth said:

Generally speaking people overestimate the stability of the electorate - there are always people who vote in one election and not the next one and vice versa. What damaged Labour a lot in 2019 was that many of the people who sat out were people who are ordinarily reliable supporters. If people like that sit out an election, it's reasonable to assume that they will probably return if the reasons for them not voting are no longer relevant. This is not a safe assumption to make about people who are less political and less partisan.

I agree, but they were not distributed equally and many of the seats Labour either lost or experienced considerable reversal in displayed this. Blyth Valley a good example. On the whole they were also seats where Labour didn't do that well in 2017 and where some decline had been evident for a while

[mattbewilson]

Jan 27, 2022 16:39:01 GMT Sibboleth said:

Jan 27, 2022 12:53:09 GMT mattbewilson said:

the scale of the defeat was down distribution of votes.

To an extent but not in quite the way you mean and also not really. The scale of the defeat was mostly down to trailing by 12pts nationally - that's a hammering, no matter. This was amplified by the fact that the Labour vote was more evenly distributed than normal in most of the country (reflective of the odd combination that the party was unpopular with sections of its usual vote while also 'benefiting' from it being an issue election: the latter factor o/c also being responsible for good performances in university constituencies etc), which is very bad news if you're trailing by 12pts and the electoral system is FPTP.

The thing is, all you can control is you're own share of the vote and labour trailing 12 points is as much Labour being on 33% as it is the Tories being 45%. So we can lament that we lost because the other party got more votes than we did but that's kind of how it works, by the same token we can only win by getting more votes than the other party and we can only do that by increasing own share of the vote

[woollyliberal]

KantarTNS, 17 - 21 Feb
LAB: 39% (+1)
CON: 34% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-1)

[Andrew_S]

[LDCaerdydd]

The first non-Labour lead by any pollster since 6th Dec.

[timmullen1]

[batman]

If Kantar, whose house effect seems to be the most pro-Conservative of all current pollsters, say Labour is ahead, we must be ahead. Although I work for Kantar, I'm not involved in voting intentions polls at all.

[timmullen1]

[timmullen1]

[timmullen1]

[timmullen1]