Kantar/TNS/BMRB

[Deleted]

of course that was not done through social services, the baby and child trade I hate

[Deleted]

Nov 29, 2012 16:35:05 GMT @ianrobo said:

that is my point James, when some one basically says it is a status symbol they are wrong. Whatever the couple's sexual preference there is no doubt no one goes on a 2/3 year process to get such a symbol.

2/3 year process? Pfft. Try 7. That's what it took us first time around.

Sent from my Dell Streak using proboards

[Deleted]

7 ?

that is too long clearly, that have to be real sure but was that due to checks or no kids available for adoption ?

[baloo]

Mike Smithson reporting the following figures from a TNS-BMRB poll:

CON 26% (-2)
LAB 41% (+1)
LD 8% (-2)
UKIP 16% (+4)
OTHER 9% (-1)

This could be accurate, it could be a normal outlier or it could be a reflection of TNS BMRB being a bit crap. I suppose we'll have to wait to see if other polls to confirm it.

[Andrew_S]

Dec 10, 2012 16:39:21 GMT baloo said:

Mike Smithson reporting the following figures from a TNS-BMRB poll:

CON 26% (-2)
LAB 41% (+1)
LD 8% (-2)
UKIP 16% (+4)
OTHER 9% (-1)

This could be accurate, it could be a normal outlier or it could be a reflection of TNS BMRB being a bit crap. I suppose we'll have to wait to see if other polls to confirm it.

Changes compared to the general election:

Lab +11%
Con -11%
LD -16%
UKIP +13%

[Deleted]

UKIP score is surely too high in that, Lab score is pretty damn accurate compared to the others.

[The Bishop]

It is, and needless to say the UKIP score is by some margin their highest

Yes, it is an outlier - but......

[Deleted]

but has been nowhere near repeated elsewhere....? If true, perhaps the Conservative Party will now agree to pass AV/STV you name it through the Commons ;-)

[baloo]

Dec 10, 2012 20:42:34 GMT cogload said:

but has been nowhere near repeated elsewhere....? If true, perhaps the Conservative Party will now agree to pass AV/STV you name it through the Commons ;-)

Ha never. Especially since AV was so comprehensively rejected by the voters.

[Deleted]

Indeed. But methinks the Conservative party may come to regret that position come 2015. Assuming that is, Cameron and Co. dont start having chickens over one poll.

[Deleted]

say that poll is replicated in 2015 then you could see the LDs still have 30 MP's I reckon and yet UKIP would have none and Labour around 450.

GReat system eh ? at what level can UKIP actually pick up an MP ?

[baloo]

Whatever future election results have in store AV and STV will remain absurd. As I said earlier there are better alternatives.

[comicbookguy]

For whatever it may be worth, that's the lowest Tory score since MORI had them at 25% in November 2001.

[The Bishop]

Their latest poll - *slightly* more normal.......

Lab 40 (-1)
Con 30 (+4)
UKIP 12 (-4)
LibDem 7 (-1)

Their lowest ever LibDem score, apparently - and a notably high 11% for (non-UKIP) "others".

[Deleted]

think we may also be seeing the inevitable slow decline of the UKIP vote from the 14/15% that some polls saw and was unrealistic.

[marksenior]

Dec 20, 2012 10:19:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Their latest poll - *slightly* more normal.......

Lab 40 (-1)
Con 30 (+4)
UKIP 12 (-4)
LibDem 7 (-1)

Their lowest ever LibDem score, apparently - and a notably high 11% for (non-UKIP) "others".

TNS have apparently made a small change to their weightings to the disadvantage of the LD's and slight advantage to Labour and Conservative .
One calculation is that on previous weightings LD would have been on 9 and Labour and Con each one lower .

[The Bishop]

First survey of 2013 out this week:

Lab 39 (-1)
Con 29 (-1)
UKIP 12
LibDem 10 (+3)

[Deleted]

Lab 37
Con 31
UKIP 13
LD 9

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Cameron is still waiting for any poll bounce: www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news-events/labour-lead-over-the-conservatives-back-in-double-figures

Lab 41 (+4)
C 31 (nc)
UKIP 12 (-1)
L Dem 8 (-1)
Others 9

[The Bishop]

I note this survey was completed this morning - unusual for these pollsters (whose offerings are usually a few days old)