clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 26, 2022 9:02:26 GMT
Limited bounce for the Conservatives, but seems to be coming from the Lib Dems more than anyone.
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Post by batman on Oct 26, 2022 9:46:04 GMT
sampled before Sunak became PM-designate.
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Post by robert1 on Nov 30, 2022 12:04:44 GMT
A poll which seems to have been missed. Survey conducted 18th-20th Nov
Con 28%
Lab 46%
LD 10%
Grn 3%
SNP 3%
PC 2%
Ref 3%
Oth 4%
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Post by woollyliberal on Nov 30, 2022 15:38:53 GMT
A poll which seems to have been missed. Survey conducted 18th-20th Nov Con 28% Lab 46% LD 10% Grn 3% SNP 3% PC 2% Ref 3% Oth 4% do you have a source for those numbers? |
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Post by robert1 on Nov 30, 2022 16:37:33 GMT
The top two figures were reported in the Indy. I asked SavantaComRes for the full details. They provided the whole data set. I asked them because the figures were not on their website. Indy has also confirmed the figures to me.
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Post by robert1 on Dec 9, 2022 12:30:16 GMT
Should now be labelled Savanta.
Lab 42 (-5)
Can 31 (+5)
No change for other parties
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 9, 2022 13:05:08 GMT
Should now be labelled Savanta. Lab 42 (-5) Can 31 (+5) No change for other parties A bit of analysis: |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 9, 2022 13:25:06 GMT
Looks rather dubious when no other polls are showing such a big shift.
(and a minor point, but the previous survey was quoted as 46-28 upthread)
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 9, 2022 19:58:06 GMT
Looks rather dubious when no other polls are showing such a big shift. (and a minor point, but the previous survey was quoted as 46-28 upthread) another poll today had Tories up 5 |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 10, 2022 11:47:07 GMT
And also showed Labour unchanged - its the supposed straight swap that is the suspicious bit, Tory support has been a bit "bouncy" since Sunak's initial boost.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 10, 2022 12:14:00 GMT
Should now be labelled Savanta. That would be a matter for The Bishop who set up this thread a decade ago. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,917
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Post by YL on Dec 13, 2022 12:21:40 GMT
Pinches of salt ready... Savanta MRP with seat numbers Lab 482 Con 69 SNP 55 Lib Dem 21 Plaid 4 Green 1 Labour win every seat in the North of England except for Westmorland & Lonsdale. Yes, including Richmond. |
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Post by michaelarden on Dec 13, 2022 12:36:27 GMT
Pinches of salt ready... Savanta MRP with seat numbers Lab 482 Con 69 SNP 55 Lib Dem 21 Plaid 4 Green 1 Labour win every seat in the North of England except for Westmorland & Lonsdale. Yes, including Richmond. I think all this goes to show is what a steaming pile of shite Electoral Calculus is. Why any self respecting market research company would have anything to do with them is beyond me. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 13, 2022 12:53:37 GMT
Labour win every seat in the North of England except for Westmorland & Lonsdale. Come on Tim! |
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 13, 2022 12:57:44 GMT
Poll numbers from the MRP
Labour 48% (+3)
Conservative 28% (-5)
Lib Dem 11% (+1)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Green 3% (-1)
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 13, 2022 17:16:11 GMT
Pinches of salt ready... Savanta MRP with seat numbers Lab 482 Con 69 SNP 55 Lib Dem 21 Plaid 4 Green 1 Labour win every seat in the North of England except for Westmorland & Lonsdale. Yes, including Richmond. That's Lab +129, Con -142, SNP +7, LDm +6, PC +1, Grn nc and Oth -1 since September for context. |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 13, 2022 17:25:15 GMT
Pinches of salt ready... Savanta MRP with seat numbers Lab 482 Con 69 SNP 55 Lib Dem 21 Plaid 4 Green 1 Labour win every seat in the North of England except for Westmorland & Lonsdale. Yes, including Richmond. I think all this goes to show is what a steaming pile of shite Electoral Calculus is. Why any self respecting market research company would have anything to do with them is beyond me. What I think these organisations are missing is with seat projections, you're better using probabilities for each seat rather than total who's 'ahead' in each seat. If there are four seats each showing Labour with a 51% chance of winning and Conservatives 49%, allocating a seat the 'leading parties' would give Labour four seats, when both parties getting two seats each is the most likely outcome. That's summarised here: That, of course, assumes things like tactical voting and specific types of seats (eg. Con-LDm contests) are handled well. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 15, 2022 16:18:18 GMT
🌹Lab 45 (+3)
🌳Con 29 (-2)
🔶LD 8 (-2)
➡️Reform 6 (+1)
🎗️SNP 3 (-1)
🌍Green 3 (=)
⬜️Other 5 (=)
2,194 UK adults, 9-11 Dec
(chg from 2-4 Dec)
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,069
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Post by jamie on Dec 15, 2022 17:10:57 GMT
So the Labour lead suddenly sees a 10% decline, then next week sees a 5% rise? Yep, totally expected.
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 15, 2022 17:18:17 GMT
So the Labour lead suddenly sees a 10% decline, then next week sees a 5% rise? Yep, totally expected. Go easy. Sample based statistics are not precise. 95% confidence interval means that 1 poll in 20 will be off by more than 3%. The last five Savanta polls are 45%, 48%, 42%, 47%, 46% for Labour. The average of these is 46%. The 42 is just outside the margin of error and you should expect 1 in 20 polls to do that. No big deal. |
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