Savanta/ComRes

[Andrew_S]

If the Tories are taking it for granted they'll be above 20% I think they're making a mistake. The same thing could happen to them as happened to Gordon Brown in 2009.

[Pimpernal]

Jan 12, 2013 21:58:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I agree. There has been a lot of talk about the possibility - likelihood even - of UKIP topping the poll (including by me). I've had a play around with the numbers in each region and I have to say its very hard for UKIP to do that. They would need to be a good second to Labour in the three northern regions and a good second to the Conservatives in the East and South East (by which I mean no more really than 5% behind). They could be ahead in the South West but even that is not so easy and maybe come through the middle to take the lead in the East and West Midlands. That might be just enough to put them ahead in the popular vote in England overall, but they cannot I believe get much better than 15% in London and when Scotland and Wales are added to the mix then Labour are likely to be ahead. Labour will not however get 35% or anywhere near to it - ian appears to be counting his chickens before they've even been fertilised. I do worry slightly that all the talk of UKIP topping the poll could lead to an otherwise excellent result being painted as a defeat or failure if it doesn;t happen. On the other hand this kind of hype may tend to assist any bandwagon effect and could become a self-fulfilling prophecy

Indeed - i think people saying that are looking at 2009 results only, guessing we'll push ahead of the Tories and forgetting that labour could leapfrog both tories and UKIP... but i think UKIP could top the poll in the east and south east and possibly the south west... turnout will be the key issue, and many tories may just decide not to vote at all whilst labour have had a lousy record getting their voters to bother with the Euros even when they were triumphing in 1999

[The Bishop]

Yes, but they didn't do so badly in 1989 and 1994 - when they were in opposition, as now.......

[Andrew_S]

Jan 13, 2013 13:26:37 GMT Pimpernal said:

Jan 12, 2013 21:58:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I agree. There has been a lot of talk about the possibility - likelihood even - of UKIP topping the poll (including by me). I've had a play around with the numbers in each region and I have to say its very hard for UKIP to do that. They would need to be a good second to Labour in the three northern regions and a good second to the Conservatives in the East and South East (by which I mean no more really than 5% behind). They could be ahead in the South West but even that is not so easy and maybe come through the middle to take the lead in the East and West Midlands. That might be just enough to put them ahead in the popular vote in England overall, but they cannot I believe get much better than 15% in London and when Scotland and Wales are added to the mix then Labour are likely to be ahead. Labour will not however get 35% or anywhere near to it - ian appears to be counting his chickens before they've even been fertilised. I do worry slightly that all the talk of UKIP topping the poll could lead to an otherwise excellent result being painted as a defeat or failure if it doesn;t happen. On the other hand this kind of hype may tend to assist any bandwagon effect and could become a self-fulfilling prophecy

Indeed - i think people saying that are looking at 2009 results only, guessing we'll push ahead of the Tories and forgetting that labour could leapfrog both tories and UKIP... but i think UKIP could top the poll in the east and south east and possibly the south west... turnout will be the key issue, and many tories may just decide not to vote at all whilst labour have had a lousy record getting their voters to bother with the Euros even when they were triumphing in 1999

The popular vote winner will probably depend on what turnout is like in the regions Labour is guaranteed to win in the north, Scotland and Wales. If it's very low compared to the southern half of the UK - including the Midlands - there's an outside chance of UKIP coming first.

[Pete Whitehead]

Labour weren't helped in 2009 by the fact that the areas which had simultaneous local elections were the county councils which resulted in a large drop in turnout in the Met boroughs and other areas which had had local elections in 2004. In 2014 (assuming the elections are held simultaneously) then the areas with local elections will again be the Met boroughs and other mainly urban authoritries as well of course as London (which is UKIP's weakest part of England)

[Andrew_S]

UKIP certainly won a rather odd collection of places last time: Hartlepool, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke-on-Trent, Hull, Dudley, Plymouth, North Devon, Torridge, Torbay.

[Deleted]

the one many were waiting for

ComRes/IoS - CON 33%(+5), LAB 39%(nc), LD 11%(+2), UKIP 10%(-4)

no shock at all no numbers at all from Labour and all from UKIP as the previous poll was done around UKIPgate in Rotherham wasnt it ?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 26, 2013 19:43:58 GMT @ianrobo said:

no shock at all no numbers at all from Labour and all from UKIP as the previous poll was done around UKIPgate in Rotherham wasnt it ?

It was 15-16 December so a fortnight after, but it did give the highest UKIP vote ever and lowest Conservative vote for this Parliament. Look up 'regression to the mean'.

[Deleted]

yep it seems some details like 30% expect Labour to take the UK into the Euro, looks like some will believe any old lie and apparently a majority to go out of the EU

I see some are crowing, but would hang on for a few sets

[Deleted]

a discussion on going about the impact of reversing the methodology changes that occurred in December and the impact on these figures.

[Pimpernal]

wasn't there an in/out of eu question asked in this poll as well?

[Deleted]

not a straight in/out question but a funny agree/disagree question

blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/01/26/voters-back-cameron-on-europe/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

which I think shows little actual movement

[The Bishop]

Again in quick succession, the ComRes phone survey:

Lab 39 (-2)
Con 32 (+1)
LibDem 10
UKIP 10 (+1)

UKIP edge up again - interesting........

[Davıd Boothroyd]

So the UKIP vote is up. What was that old quote about the man who keeps feeding the crocodile, hoping it eats him last?

[Deleted]

Jan 28, 2013 22:37:49 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

So the UKIP vote is up. What was that old quote about the man who keeps feeding the crocodile, hoping it eats him last?

That’s the quote about Appeasement. Although using it for this issue it might mean Godwin’s law nbeing invoked.

[Deleted]

Not a monthly one but appears to be a poll out soon

The Sunday People @thesundaypeople
Bedroom Tax verdict: Our ComRes poll tonight will make worrying reading for David Cameron and Co.

[The Bishop]

It is the regular IoS poll, according to John Rentoul.

[Deleted]

ah right so will see what got the People excited over the result. My guess is the bedroom tax is going to be seen as unfair by reasonable minded people.

[Deleted]

The Sunday People @thesundaypeople
49% of voters say bedroom tax shows how out of touch the Government is with lives of real people. 35% disagree. #ComRes #bedroomtax

[East Anglian Lefty]

I hope that's not the only question they asked about it. That kind of question is going to get agreement from everybody who thinks the government is out of touch and disagreement from everybody who doesn't, regardless of the issue. You could ask whether the government's policy on beetroot shows how out of touch they are and the numbers you got probably wouldn't be entirely dissimilar.