Local Council by-elections 27th September

[Tony Otim]

Three this week and none are completely unknown to the by-elections threads:

LICHFIELD DC; Stowe (Con resigned)
Candidates:
LAX, Angela Clare (Conservative)
PALMER, Donald Keith (Labour)
RATHBONE, Richard John (Liberal Democrat)

Feb 18 by: Con 513; Lab 299; LD 217; Something New 59; Green 56
2015: Con 1791, 1484, 1443; Lab 898, 862, 857; Green 635
2011: Con 841, 799, 729; Lab 483, 440, 411; LD 294, 249, 210; UKIP 159
2007: Con 945, 933, 900; Lab 488, 484, 477
2003: Con 846, 843, 807; Lab 540, 522, 478

It is the by-election winner from this February who has resigned. Labour are standing the same candidate, who was also their top candidate in 2015.Something New was a policy-free, let the people tell me what’s important to them type of thing.



NOTTINGHAM UA; Clifton North (Lab sitting as independent resigned)
Candidates:
BISHOP, David Laurence (Bus-Pass Elvis)
CLARKE, Kevin (Nottingham Independents – Putting Clifton First)
JONES, Kirsty Lemara (Green)
PROCTER, Rebecca Lucy Stephen (Liberal Democrat)
QUDDOOS, Shuguftah Jabeen (Labour)
STEEL, Roger David (Conservative)

2015: Lab 2397, 2291, 1959; Con 2249, 1790, 1772; UKIP 1389, 1247, 1200; Ind 278
Mar 14 by: Lab 1179; Con 1025; UKIP 536; Bus Pass Elvis 67; LD 56 (lab hold)
2011: Lab 1902, 1720, 1589; Con 1834, 1772; 1767
2007: Con 1883, 1749, 1694; Lab 1265, 1164, 1087; LD 389, 320
2003: Con 1714, 1610, 1560; Lab 1335, 1317, 1125; LD 372

The Nottingham Independent was the top-placed Kipper in 2015. The Conservative was the the third placed Conservative in 2015, but was a councillor from 2011-2015 (elected 2nd, top Conservative). David Bishop of course stood in the 2014 by-election and in every Nottingham by-election.



SALFORD MBC; Eccles (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ALKER, Helen (Green)
DARLINGTON, Andrew (Conservative)
DEAN, Caroline Stephanie (Women’s Equality)
HALLAM, Keith (UKIP)
McCUSKER, Mike (Labour)
OVEREND, Jake (Liberal Democrat)

2018: Lab 1748; Con 638; Grn 185; LD 169; UKIP 134; TUSC 23
2016: Lab 1873; Con 707; Grn 284; TUSC 173
2015: Lab 2612; Con 1347; UKIP 739; Grn 327; LD 257; TUSC 122
2014: Lab 1861; Con 827; LD 287
2012: Lab 1462; Con 662; UKIP 281; LD 212; Ind 127
Oct 11 by: Lab 1227; Con 701; BNP 147; LD 125; Ind 53;
2011: Lab 1877; Con 950; UKIP 368; LD 213
2010: Lab 2216; Con 1625; LD 1298; Ind 214
2008: Con 1422; Lab 1144; LD 479
2007: Con 1303; Lab 1180; LD 480
2006: Lab 1038; Con 975; LD 632
Nov 04 by: Lab 842; Con 677; LD 566 (Lab gain from LD)
2004: Lab 1247, 1167, 928; LD 1019, 814; Con 919, 785

The Green has stood here in the last two elections and the UKIP candidate is also a re-run from this May.

[John Chanin]

britainelects.com/2018/09/25/previews-27-sep-2018/

[Andrew_S]

I wouldn't rule out a Labour win in Stowe because voters will be annoyed at having to vote again so soon.

[yellowperil]

Sept 27, 2018 0:04:46 GMT Andrew_S said:

I wouldn't rule out a Labour win in Stowe because voters will be annoyed at having to vote again so soon.

So will the fact that the Tory winner of the last by-election has resigned and endorsed Labour, help Labour or have the opposite effect? After all,she's the reason why they have to vote again

[The Bishop]

That surely must depend to a large extent on the reasons they have given for both resigning and switching. Is there a particularly salient local issue?

[yellowperil]

Sept 27, 2018 10:34:19 GMT The Bishop said:

That surely must depend to a large extent on the reasons they have given for both resigning and switching. Is there a particularly salient local issue?

I thought it all centred around Friarsgate and associated planning control issues.  In this case it really is called Friarsgate, not one of those things where every scandal has to have"-gate" tacked on the end.)

[timmullen1]

Sept 27, 2018 10:34:19 GMT The Bishop said:

That surely must depend to a large extent on the reasons they have given for both resigning and switching. Is there a particularly salient local issue?

The council cancelled a large retail development earlier this year having already spent £7 million demolishing property to accommodate it. According to Andrew’s Preview the resigning councillor has cited “a row over planning rules” as the reason for her resignation.

[gwynthegriff]

Sept 27, 2018 11:15:33 GMT yellowperil said:

Sept 27, 2018 10:34:19 GMT The Bishop said:

That surely must depend to a large extent on the reasons they have given for both resigning and switching. Is there a particularly salient local issue?

I thought it all centred around Friarsgate and associated planning control issues.  In this case it really is called Friarsgate, not one of those things where every scandal has to have"-gate" tacked on the end.)

Friarsgategate!

[andrewteale]

To be fair, I think the resignation was provoked by a different row to Friarsgate.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Clifton North turnout is 27%.

[middleenglander]

Sept 27, 2018 22:01:04 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Clifton North turnout is 27%.

This suggests a vote around 2,875, very similar to the 2014 by-election when it was 2,863. That result was posted on the corresponding thread at 11.35 pm.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Reports are saying Clifton North is close. But I think that might have been predicted before nominations opened.

[andrewp]

Sept 27, 2018 22:10:14 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Reports are saying Clifton North is close. But I think that might have been predicted before nominations opened.

Quite. It would be surprising if it wasn’t. Nearly all of our predictions had a margin of less than 5%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SALFORD Eccles

McCUSKER, Mike (Labour) 1,071
DARLINGTON, Andrew (Conservative) 474
OVEREND, Jake (Liberal Democrat) 156
ALKER, Helen (Green) 123
HALLAM, Keith (UKIP) 100
DEAN, Caroline Stephanie (Women’s Equality) 39

Turnout 21%

[Robert Waller]

Eccles (Salford) result:

LAB: 54.6% (-7.1)
CON: 24.1% (+0.9)
LDEM: 7.9% (+7.9)
GRN: 6.3% (-3.1)
UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)
WEP: 2.0% (+2.0)

Labour HOLD.

Chgs. w/ 2016.

[timrollpickering]

Sept 27, 2018 22:10:14 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Reports are saying Clifton North is close. But I think that might have been predicted before nominations opened.

[manchesterman]

Twitter report of CON GAIN in Clifton

[brianjrvs]

Sept 27, 2018 22:46:54 GMT manchesterman said:

Twitter report of CON GAIN in Clifton

Con 1311
Labour 928
Indy 307
Lib Dems 92
Green 64
Bus Pass Elvis 46

[timrollpickering]

[manchesterman]