The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 10, 2020 12:43:13 GMT
The 'remain' aspect doesn't really work because Sadiq Khan has been leading the campaign for remainers in London and is clearly an electable candidate. There isn't a large pool of voters who are 'remain' but detached from their party allegiance and unwilling to vote for a reasonable Labour candidate. I've not seen the tables but they apparently show Rory Stewart is polling nearly twice as good with 'leave' voters than with 'remainers'. Leave voters have got what they want and, unless wantonly antagonised, are probably less bothered about where candidates stand on the Leave-Remain spectrum. Stewart could erode Bailey's support but I don't think will make much impression elsewhere. Stewart was never exactly a full-on "remainer" anyway, despite his canonisation by quite a few #FBPE types.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Mar 10, 2020 13:06:51 GMT
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 10, 2020 13:06:51 GMT
Khan is going to win, but I hope he doesn't do so on first preferences, if only out of an academic interest to see where all the second preferences go. I would go so far as to say Labour will probably win all future London mayoral elections unless some well known independent comes out the woodwork (as in 2000). I think "probably win all future London mayoral elections" is probably taking it a bit far. I agree, not time soon. But... If we look at why the Conservative's aren't competitive as they were during the Johnson Mayoral years - Unpopular Labour government in 2008 suppressed Labour support - Labour currently has monolithic support among younger voters at a time when London is a "young" city - Young urban professionals have swung from the Conservatives to Labour and the Lib Dems - EU nationals have swung away from the Conservatives - Ongoing demographic change boosting ethnic groups not supportive of the Conservatives Bring all of this back: - An unpopular Labour government, perhaps in the late 2020s or early 2030s - Europe no longer being an issue for EU nationals and younger voters - Hindu voters continuing their swing towards the Conservatives - Other ethnic minority groups following the path of Jewish and Hindu voters - Plus lower Labour turnout as the Mayorality becomes "safe", and CLPs campaigning ability atrophies amid ultra-higher parliamentary majorities And you suddenly have a recipe for Conservatives to win again. If GE19 taught us anything, it was "never say never" I should probably know this, but what happens to EU nationals right to vote in devolved and local elections following the end of the transition period, even with Settled Status?
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Deleted
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Mar 10, 2020 13:10:12 GMT
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 13:10:12 GMT
Leave voters have got what they want and, unless wantonly antagonised, are probably less bothered about where candidates stand on the Leave-Remain spectrum. Stewart could erode Bailey's support but I don't think will make much impression elsewhere. Stewart was never exactly a full-on "remainer" anyway, despite his canonisation by quite a few #FBPE types. I don't know what his current position is, but it won't be much of an issue unless he chooses to make it so.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Mar 10, 2020 13:12:35 GMT
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 13:12:35 GMT
I think "probably win all future London mayoral elections" is probably taking it a bit far. I agree, not time soon. But... If we look at why the Conservative's aren't competitive as they were during the Johnson Mayoral years - Unpopular Labour government in 2008 suppressed Labour support - Labour currently has monolithic support among younger voters at a time when London is a "young" city - Young urban professionals have swung from the Conservatives to Labour and the Lib Dems - EU nationals have swung away from the Conservatives - Ongoing demographic change boosting ethnic groups not supportive of the Conservatives Bring all of this back: - An unpopular Labour government, perhaps in the late 2020s or early 2030s - Europe no longer being an issue for EU nationals and younger voters - Hindu voters continuing their swing towards the Conservatives - Other ethnic minority groups following the path of Jewish and Hindu voters - Plus lower Labour turnout as the Mayorality becomes "safe", and CLPs campaigning ability atrophies amid ultra-higher parliamentary majorities And you suddenly have a recipe for Conservatives to win again. If GE19 taught us anything, it was "never say never" I should probably know this, but what happens to EU nationals right to vote in devolved and local elections following the end of the transition period, even with Settled Status? I assume they will revert to having the same rights as other foreign nationals unless the final agreement specifies otherwise.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 10, 2020 13:44:57 GMT
I should probably know this, but what happens to EU nationals right to vote in devolved and local elections following the end of the transition period, even with Settled Status? The right of EU nationals to vote in local elections is in UK statute law, so it is not connected to membership of the EU. Accordingly EU nationals remain entitled to vote and stand as candidates even though the UK is no longer in the EU, and will (unless the law is changed) continue to be so entitled after the end of the implementation period.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Mar 10, 2020 15:35:01 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 15:35:01 GMT
Yeh it's a shame as Siobhan Benita is a really good candidate, but it's quite obvious Rory Stewart has totally raided our vote. Also, Khan being a proper moderate has probably pulled LD vote off the left flank. proper moderate? He's quite clearly centre left/soft left
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YouGov
Mar 10, 2020 16:21:43 GMT
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 10, 2020 16:21:43 GMT
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Deleted
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YouGov
Mar 10, 2020 17:19:09 GMT
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2020 17:19:09 GMT
Khan is going to win, but I hope he doesn't do so on first preferences, if only out of an academic interest to see where all the second preferences go. I would go so far as to say Labour will probably win all future London mayoral elections unless some well known independent comes out the woodwork (as in 2000).
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 10, 2020 17:38:15 GMT
Khan is going to win, but I hope he doesn't do so on first preferences, if only out of an academic interest to see where all the second preferences go. I would go so far as to say Labour will probably win all future London mayoral elections unless some well known independent comes out the woodwork (as in 2000). That’s falling into the trap of thinking that because things are a certain way now they always will be. Just 5 years ago we all thought Wandsworth was trending inexorably towards the Tories.
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Mar 10, 2020 19:12:26 GMT
Khan is going to win, but I hope he doesn't do so on first preferences, if only out of an academic interest to see where all the second preferences go. I would go so far as to say Labour will probably win all future London mayoral elections unless some well known independent comes out the woodwork (as in 2000). That’s falling into the trap of thinking that because things are a certain way now they always will be. Just 5 years ago we all thought Wandsworth was trending inexorably towards the Tories. Indeed. A party that has lost about 40 Scottish seats in the 2015 general election and about 50 "red wall" seats in 2019 is quite capable of losing 40 London seats in 2024 (together with the mayoralty and everything except about 3 assembly list seats in concurrent GLA elections). Though, before esteemed colleagues from other rooms start smirking at this, I would gently note that the last time that the Labour Party managed to lose over half its seats in a single general election was in 1931. The corresponding date for the Conservatives, though, is 1997 - and for the Liberal Democrats, as recently as 2015.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 12, 2020 13:18:14 GMT
Latest from the YouGov London poll is the London Assembly:
Constituency vote Lab 47% (+3) C 31% (-) L Dem 11% (+3) GP 9% (-) BxP 2% (+2)
List vote Lab 45% (+5) C 29% (-) GP 12% (+4) L Dem 10% (+4) BxP 2% (+2)
Simple application would mean Labour gaining Havering and Redbridge constituency, but losing one list seat. Green and Liberal Democrats would win one extra seat each while UKIP would lose the two they won in 2016.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Mar 12, 2020 13:19:44 GMT
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2020 13:19:44 GMT
Latest from the YouGov London poll is the London Assembly: Constituency vote Lab 47% (+3) C 31% (-) L Dem 11% (+3) GP 9% (-) BxP 2% (+2) List vote Lab 45% (+5) C 29% (-) GP 12% (+4) L Dem 10% (+4) BxP 2% (+2) Simple application would mean Labour gaining Havering and Redbridge constituency, but losing one list seat. Green and Liberal Democrats would win one extra seat each while UKIP would lose the two they won in 2016. That looks plausible, too.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Mar 12, 2020 18:52:38 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2020 18:52:38 GMT
Latest from the YouGov London poll is the London Assembly: Constituency vote Lab 47% (+3) C 31% (-) L Dem 11% (+3) GP 9% (-) BxP 2% (+2) List vote Lab 45% (+5) C 29% (-) GP 12% (+4) L Dem 10% (+4) BxP 2% (+2) Simple application would mean Labour gaining Havering and Redbridge constituency, but losing one list seat. Green and Liberal Democrats would win one extra seat each while UKIP would lose the two they won in 2016. what are the changes from
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YouGov
Mar 12, 2020 20:26:55 GMT
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 12, 2020 20:26:55 GMT
Latest from the YouGov London poll is the London Assembly what are the changes from Changes on the result in 2016.
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 12, 2020 20:55:12 GMT
It displays very well how strong Labour are in London. And given the national polls how much they still aren't winning back in those Leave areas.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2020 21:11:31 GMT
It displays very well how strong Labour are in London. And given the national polls how much they still aren't winning back in those Leave areas. depressing innit
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
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YouGov
Mar 12, 2020 22:31:48 GMT
Post by middyman on Mar 12, 2020 22:31:48 GMT
Latest from the YouGov London poll is the London Assembly: Constituency vote Lab 47% (+3) C 31% (-) L Dem 11% (+3) GP 9% (-) BxP 2% (+2) List vote Lab 45% (+5) C 29% (-) GP 12% (+4) L Dem 10% (+4) BxP 2% (+2) Simple application would mean Labour gaining Havering and Redbridge constituency, but losing one list seat. Green and Liberal Democrats would win one extra seat each while UKIP would lose the two they won in 2016. Nobody has a minus. Is this because of the departure of UKIP?
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YouGov
Mar 12, 2020 23:25:20 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 12, 2020 23:25:20 GMT
I should probably know this, but what happens to EU nationals right to vote in devolved and local elections following the end of the transition period, even with Settled Status? The right of EU nationals to vote in local elections is in UK statute law, so it is not connected to membership of the EU. Accordingly EU nationals remain entitled to vote and stand as candidates even though the UK is no longer in the EU, and will (unless the law is changed) continue to be so entitled after the end of the implementation period. The govt has confirmed in answer to a written question that eu nationals elected as councillors this year will be able to serve a full term regardless of whether the law changes on their right to stand (this is of some interest to me as the Agent for a Polish candidate). I am not really expecting an election on May 7th though...
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YouGov
Mar 13, 2020 0:31:38 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Mar 13, 2020 0:31:38 GMT
Latest from the YouGov London poll is the London Assembly: Constituency vote Lab 47% (+3) C 31% (-) L Dem 11% (+3) GP 9% (-) BxP 2% (+2) List vote Lab 45% (+5) C 29% (-) GP 12% (+4) L Dem 10% (+4) BxP 2% (+2) Simple application would mean Labour gaining Havering and Redbridge constituency, but losing one list seat. Green and Liberal Democrats would win one extra seat each while UKIP would lose the two they won in 2016. Nobody has a minus. Is this because of the departure of UKIP? I think so. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_Assembly_election#Constituency
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YouGov
Mar 24, 2020 14:42:09 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Mar 24, 2020 14:42:09 GMT
76% strongly support 17% somewhat support 2% somewhat oppose 2% strongly oppose 3% don't know
That's 93% total support 4% total oppose.
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