mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,451
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Post by mboy on Nov 8, 2019 22:15:20 GMT
Regardless of the poll being a couple of weeks old, the indicators that it gives are still very interesting. Points that it shows: 1. Lib Dems not putting on as much in the SW - probably because of Revoke policy not being as popular there. 2. Labour doing much worse up north - probably because Brexit popular there 3. Tories can be hurt by Brexit party
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 8, 2019 22:57:06 GMT
Regardless of the poll being a couple of weeks old, the indicators that it gives are still very interesting. Points that it shows: 1. Lib Dems not putting on as much in the SW - probably because of Revoke policy not being as popular there. 2. Labour doing much worse up north - probably because Brexit popular there 3. Tories can be hurt by Brexit party The 2017,base was much higher in the SW than any other region
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YouGov
Nov 9, 2019 1:08:59 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 9, 2019 1:08:59 GMT
Regardless of the poll being a couple of weeks old, the indicators that it gives are still very interesting. Points that it shows: 1. Lib Dems not putting on as much in the SW - probably because of Revoke policy not being as popular there. 2. Labour doing much worse up north - probably because Brexit popular there 3. Tories can be hurt by Brexit party The 2017,base was much higher in the SW than any other region I wonder where the gains are in the SW - would not be surprised to see them much greater than 6% in a subset of constituencies in which we are actually in 2nd place post-2017, and less than that in the rest.
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YouGov
Nov 9, 2019 11:18:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Nov 9, 2019 11:18:05 GMT
The 2017,base was much higher in the SW than any other region I wonder where the gains are in the SW - would not be surprised to see them much greater than 6% in a subset of constituencies in which we are actually in 2nd place post-2017, and less than that in the rest. If you believe that swing we gain St Ives, Cornwall and Devon N and Wells I think. Prob Cheltenham but did not check that
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,886
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YouGov
Nov 9, 2019 13:03:45 GMT
Post by jamie on Nov 9, 2019 13:03:45 GMT
Some of those regional swings look too big to be believable. Labour are not going to get less than a third of the vote in the North East, or come second in the North West. Scotland looks off as well. Note also the high Green share - YouGov consistently show the Greens higher than other pollsters. Tbf this is sub-sample polling mostly from a couple of weeks ago. Labour have gained a couple of % in the national polls since and they look on course to gain at least a bit more by election day.
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YouGov
Nov 9, 2019 14:39:03 GMT
Post by formerfifer on Nov 9, 2019 14:39:03 GMT
Quick comparison of the latest YouGov poll conducted for The Times (fieldwork 5-6 Nov) against the corresponding period in 2017 campaign (Election Day - 36) | Election 2019 | Election 2017 | Difference 2017 v 2019 | Conservative | 36% | 48% | -12% | Labour | 25% | 29% | -4% | Liberal Democrat | 17% | 10% | +7% | SNP | 4% | 5% | -1% | Green | 5% | 2% | +3% | UKIP | 0% | 5% | -5% | Brexit | 11% | 0% | +11% | Plaid | 1% | Not Recorded |
| Change UK | 0% | Not Recorded |
| Others | 1% | 1% | No Change |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 9, 2019 22:24:44 GMT
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Post by formerfifer on Nov 10, 2019 7:16:59 GMT
Comparing this YouGov poll against their corresponding poll from 2017 campaign (Fieldwork completed Election Day - 34)
| Election 2019 | Election 2017 | Difference | Conservatives | 39% | 47% | -8% | Labour | 26% | 28% | -2% | Liberal Democrats | 17% | 10% | +7% | SNP | 4% | 4% | - | Green | 3% | 4% | -1% | UKIP | 0% | 8% | -8% | Brexit | 10% | 0% | +10% | Plaid | 1% | - |
| Change UK | 0% | 0% | - | Others | 0% | - | - |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Nov 10, 2019 11:20:22 GMT
The 3 polls for today’s Sunday’s are pretty aligned
Con 39,41,41 Lab 26,29,29 LD 15,16,17 Brexit 6,6,10
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YouGov
Nov 10, 2019 12:31:31 GMT
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 10, 2019 12:31:31 GMT
Wonder if this will encourage more BXP candidates to pack it in.
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 10, 2019 12:34:11 GMT
Wonder if this will encourage more BXP candidates to pack it in. I actually wonder if The People's Nige might order his troops to stand down to save embarrassment.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,251
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YouGov
Nov 10, 2019 13:08:42 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Nov 10, 2019 13:08:42 GMT
Consistent 10pt leads. The Tory's to lose now.
The next election (in 2 years time) will of course be an utter turkey shoot.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 10, 2019 14:15:38 GMT
Consistent 10pt leads. The Tory's to lose now. The next election (in 2 years time) will of course be an utter turkey shoot. My ultimate fear is that if the Tories were able to win this present election with a clear and substantial majority ( I don't think they will, but clearly it is now not beyond the bounds of possibility ), they will have the fixed term system working in their favour and the next election will not have to be before 2024, and even losing seats to defections and by-elections might not be enough to force Boris from the office he clearly craves and for which he is so manifestly unfit.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 10, 2019 14:29:21 GMT
Last year, I visited a lady I know and she was complaining that "politicians never come to my door." I said: " Mary, you have a sign saying no solicitors, canvassers or cold-callers" in your window. "Yes, she replied. "but I didn't mean them lying buggers." I always remember trying to canvass one particular house and ringing quite a loud door bell, when I could hear there was somebody in but just not reacting to the bell at all. I gave them a good couple of minutes but it was clear nobody was coming to answer, so put the usual "sorry you were out" leaflet through the letter box. Still nobody came to the door but there came a strem of invective from inside the house about Bloody Liberal Liars, saying they were out when they weren't. I put them down as Anti. I imagine we all can share that experience.
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YouGov
Nov 10, 2019 16:12:59 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Nov 10, 2019 16:12:59 GMT
"Sorry you were out"? I thought we stopped using them more than thirty years ago.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 10, 2019 16:49:04 GMT
"Sorry you were out"? I thought we stopped using them more than thirty years ago. No, still standard practice as far s I know. I am advised that we now need a calling card with GDPR info on it to be given even when in (if any data has been collected) so I think most people combine the two.
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 10, 2019 17:38:26 GMT
"Sorry you were out"? I thought we stopped using them more than thirty years ago. No, still standard practice as far s I know. I am advised that we now need a calling card with GDPR info on it to be given even when in (if any data has been collected) so I think most people combine the two. I was tempted to throw our GDPR calling cards in the bin. Utter rot the whole thing. We should scrap it if we ever do leave
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 10, 2019 18:31:56 GMT
No, still standard practice as far s I know. I am advised that we now need a calling card with GDPR info on it to be given even when in (if any data has been collected) so I think most people combine the two. I was tempted to throw our GDPR calling cards in the bin. Utter rot the whole thing. We should scrap it if we ever do leave I wouldn't if I were you, one of these days some political party will get a pasting under GDPR because by definition there's a host of people who'd love to see it happen. Funnily enough the only GDPR request we've ever had was from a strong Leaver - make what you will of that.
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YouGov
Nov 10, 2019 21:38:40 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Nov 10, 2019 21:38:40 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,789
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 11, 2019 10:55:38 GMT
More polling that was done several weeks ago, though you wouldn't guess that from some of the coverage this morning.
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