|
Post by Andrew_S on May 30, 2019 22:24:43 GMT
It's a bit unlucky for the LDs that Peterborough is such a poor seat for the party; they only got 3.3% at the last general election. Even with an average seat they'd have a chance of challenging strongly with opinion poll ratings like this.
|
|
carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 4,823
Member is Online
|
Post by carolus on May 30, 2019 22:25:53 GMT
It's a bit unlucky for the LDs that Peterborough is such a poor seat for the party; they only got 3.3% at the last general election. Even with an average seat they'd have a chance of challenging strongly with opinion poll ratings like this. B&R can't come soon enough!
|
|
|
YouGov
May 30, 2019 22:25:58 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2019 22:25:58 GMT
In a GE, maybe. As a by-election it is game on for Farage and us. A win is not needed for either to make an impact in current conditions. I think the Conservatives and Labour are going to be in trouble. The circs of the by-election are not helpful either. so you're good with Brexit Party winning as long as you come 2nd? Oh for God's sake. I am making an observation, on a psephological website, about the state of British politics at the moment, which is that the traditional two parties are in deep trouble; and that it will take more than a narrow win by Labour (or less plausibly, the Tories) over either BxP or LDs to reverse that. If we must look at this form a partisan angle, then frankly I quite fancy our chances in Peterborough standing as the anti-Farage candidate because Labour's response is so pathetic. Given that Peterborough is about 360th on our list of target seats 2nd place would be pretty good going.
|
|
Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
|
Post by Izzyeviel on May 30, 2019 22:27:48 GMT
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on May 30, 2019 22:30:37 GMT
so you're good with Brexit Party winning as long as you come 2nd? Oh for God's sake. I am making an observation, on a psephological website, about the state of British politics at the moment, which is that the traditional two parties are in deep trouble; and that it will take more than a narrow win by Labour (or less plausibly, the Tories) over either BxP or LDs to reverse that. If we must look at this form a partisan angle, then frankly I quite fancy our chances in Peterborough standing as the anti-Farage candidate because Labour's response is so pathetic. Given that Peterborough is about 360th on our list of target seats 2nd place would be pretty good going. I'd still be very surprised if the LDs came second because Peterborough contains a significant ethnic minority population thus Labour's vote will likely hold up better than average, beating the Tories must be a distinct possibility though. I'm starting to think Peterborough will be a comfortable Brexit Party win against divided opposition.
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Inactivist
Posts: 5,551
|
YouGov
May 30, 2019 22:32:10 GMT
Post by Foggy on May 30, 2019 22:32:10 GMT
I am going away for a fortnight to a place where nothing much changes. St Kilda might be a good idea (it's a sort of outlier though not renowned for slack water). St Kilda recently switched from the Melbourne Ports division to the new seat of Macnamara, so things do change there. You were talking about the Australian one, right?
|
|
Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
|
Post by Izzyeviel on May 30, 2019 22:42:37 GMT
|
|
Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
YouGov
May 30, 2019 22:49:09 GMT
via mobile
Foggy likes this
Post by Vibe on May 30, 2019 22:49:09 GMT
26!!!! Your friend is getting too excited.
|
|
|
YouGov
May 30, 2019 22:50:39 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 30, 2019 22:50:39 GMT
Oh for God's sake. I am making an observation, on a psephological website, about the state of British politics at the moment, which is that the traditional two parties are in deep trouble; and that it will take more than a narrow win by Labour (or less plausibly, the Tories) over either BxP or LDs to reverse that. If we must look at this form a partisan angle, then frankly I quite fancy our chances in Peterborough standing as the anti-Farage candidate because Labour's response is so pathetic. Given that Peterborough is about 360th on our list of target seats 2nd place would be pretty good going. I'd still be very surprised if the LDs came second because Peterborough contains a significant ethnic minority population thus Labour's vote will likely hold up better than average, beating the Tories must be a distinct possibility though. I'm starting to think Peterborough will be a comfortable Brexit Party win against divided opposition. Yes, sound points. It's very unpromising territory for us. Against your prediction is that Farage's parties have a truly terrible record of running insurgent by-election campaigns whereas our national party knows all about that if we can pull in enough activists from other areas.
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on May 30, 2019 23:01:43 GMT
I'd still be very surprised if the LDs came second because Peterborough contains a significant ethnic minority population thus Labour's vote will likely hold up better than average, beating the Tories must be a distinct possibility though. I'm starting to think Peterborough will be a comfortable Brexit Party win against divided opposition. Yes, sound points. It's very unpromising territory for us. Against your prediction is that Farage's parties have a truly terrible record of running insurgent by-election campaigns whereas our national party knows all about that if we can pull in enough activists from other areas. Sure that's true but a successful Lib Dem by-election campaign also requires: a)them to be seen as the primary challenger (not true at all in this case) b)a sustained, intense campaign over many weeks (there's only 1 week left). I don't think the LDs should get their hopes up about Peterborough it's been framed for weeks as a Lab vs. Brexit contest. It's a shame for them that it isn't Lewisham East up instead, that could've been very interesting if it was held now.
|
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,468
|
YouGov
May 30, 2019 23:15:19 GMT
Post by mboy on May 30, 2019 23:15:19 GMT
I think Peterborough is out of our range even with polls like this. Brecon though, if the petition succeeds...
|
|
Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
|
YouGov
May 30, 2019 23:32:12 GMT
Post by Izzyeviel on May 30, 2019 23:32:12 GMT
Prime Minister Farage facing off at PMQT with Opposition leader Jo Swinson. I can see that. Jezza will still be hanging on as leader of the 4th largest party... imagine the swingometer!
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on May 30, 2019 23:38:58 GMT
I think Peterborough is out of our range even with polls like this. Brecon though, of the petition succeeds... That'll probably a Lib Dem landslide I reckon .
|
|
yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 770
|
Post by yorkshireluke on May 31, 2019 0:22:25 GMT
I've given up trying to predict what would happen in a GE now. If I get some free time I'll to look at every seat individually.
Still need to map the councils...
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on May 31, 2019 0:44:01 GMT
Have you noticed that, whatever else happens, Labour & the Tories are always tied in YouGov polls? yes last six polls straight Perhaps they can't tell the difference. I'm having difficulty with that.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 31, 2019 4:29:07 GMT
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on May 31, 2019 5:43:02 GMT
I have seen very little evidence that we are fighting Peterborough to win - not much on LibDem Voice, no appeal emails. It comes too soon after our amazing result last week to be able to move up the three gears that would be necessary to make a serious impact. Of course, we have won seats before at by-elections where we had very little in the way of entrenched support - Croydon NE springs to mind - but in this case I think the impetus is with the Brexit Party. I will also be quite surprised if the recall petition in Brecon & Radnor reaches the threshold.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on May 31, 2019 6:39:24 GMT
Yes, sound points. It's very unpromising territory for us. Against your prediction is that Farage's parties have a truly terrible record of running insurgent by-election campaigns whereas our national party knows all about that if we can pull in enough activists from other areas. Sure that's true but a successful Lib Dem by-election campaign also requires: a)them to be seen as the primary challenger (not true at all in this case) b)a sustained, intense campaign over many weeks (there's only 1 week left). I don't think the LDs should get their hopes up about Peterborough it's been framed for weeks as a Lab vs. Brexit contest. It's a shame for them that it isn't Lewisham East up instead, that could've been very interesting if it was held now. I have to admit that I'd lost track of how little time there is left in the Peterborough by election - possibly favouring BxP? Certainly not good for us.
|
|
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 7:18:47 GMT
Post by pepperminttea on May 31, 2019 7:18:47 GMT
Sure that's true but a successful Lib Dem by-election campaign also requires: a)them to be seen as the primary challenger (not true at all in this case) b)a sustained, intense campaign over many weeks (there's only 1 week left). I don't think the LDs should get their hopes up about Peterborough it's been framed for weeks as a Lab vs. Brexit contest. It's a shame for them that it isn't Lewisham East up instead, that could've been very interesting if it was held now. I have to admit that I'd lost track of how little time there is left in the Peterborough by election - possibly favouring BxP? Certainly not good for us. Either the Brexit Party or Labour though I have a feeling the Brexit Party will win. Remember cross party Remain campaigners have been telling Remain voters in Peterborough to vote Labour to stop Farage which will have basically frozen the Lib Dems out of the picture and with only 1 week left that's it will be too late to change this no least because most of the postal votes will already be in.
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on May 31, 2019 7:42:49 GMT
That's just silly/ ignorant from Sky News. "Lib Dems would win General Election"..nah... Still, all good for us to counter the usual wasted vote argument, also silly and ignorant. Now we really could do with a Green/LD electoral agreement , when it really could make a massive difference in terms of seats won.
|
|